SPC MD 245

MD 0245 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OK…FAR SOUTHEAST KS…SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO

MD 0245 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Far Southeast KS...Southwest/Central
MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 281205Z - 281330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Near-severe wind gusts are possible across far southeast
KS, southwest/central MO, and northeast OK over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low near HUT in
central KS, with a stationary front extending northeastward from
this low to another low over central IL. A Pacific front also
extends from the central KS low southward across central OK. A
cluster of thunderstorms which initially developed along this front
has moved quickly eastward and is now located over northeast OK and
southeast KS. Despite a fast storm motion (i.e. around 55-60 kt),
most gusts associated with this cluster have remained around 35-40
kt. This is a result of the boundary-layer stability that was in
place. 

The boundary-layer stability is expected to remain in place
downstream across southwest/central MO (as evidenced by the 12Z SGF
sounding). As such, the trend for generally 35-45 kt gusts is
expected to continue. There may be a small area, likely west-central
MO, where an increased likelihood for a few stronger gusts develops
as a result of slightly weaker MLCIN and enhanced updraft/downdraft
circulations due to interaction with the stationary frontal zone.
Mesoscale nature of that interaction leads to relatively low
short-term forecast confidence. Anticipated limited spatial extent
of the severe threat will likely preclude watch issuance. Even so,
convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   36469581 37749568 38749424 39149219 37459184 36469345
            36469581 

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid Mississippi
Valley, Northern Illinois this afternoon...

* LOCATIONS...
  Northern Illinois
  Southeastern Iowa

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a few intense
  Scattered large hail, some baseball size
  Isolated damaging winds

* SUMMARY...
  A significant severe-weather outbreak is expected for portions
  of the Midwest this afternoon and evening. Threats include
  strong tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe wind
  gusts.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Edwards.. 03/28/2020

$$

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SPC MD 243

MD 0243 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NE…SOUTHERN IA…FAR NORTHWEST IL…FAR NORTHERN MO…EXTREME NORTHEAST KS

MD 0243 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Areas affected...Far Southeast NE...Southern IA...Far Northwest
IL...Far Northern MO...Extreme Northeast KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 280634Z - 280730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail is possible from far southeast
NE/northeast KS across southern IL/northern MO into northwest IL
over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage has increased over
the past hour or so from far southeast NE/northeast KS northeastward
across southern IA/northern MO into northwest IL. This increase
appears to be coincident with a modest increase in the low-level jet
and resultant increase in warm-air advection. Environment across
much of this region is characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates
atop a stable boundary layer and strong deep-layer shear.

The ongoing warm-air advection is expected to persist while
gradually shifting northeastward. This continued lift will likely
promote the development of additional thunderstorms while the strong
vertical shear will support storm organization. Instability is
modest but a few storms could be strong enough to produce severe
hail. Current expectation is for the limited instability to temper
severe storm coverage enough to preclude watch issuance. However,
convective trends will be monitored closely and watch probability
could increase if the number of organized storms becomes greater.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40459678 41499446 42449025 41598947 40909133 39769607
            40459678 

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SPC MD 241

MD 0241 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST KS…SOUTHWEST INTO EAST-CENTRAL MO…FAR WESTERN IL

MD 0241 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Areas affected...Southeast KS...southwest into east-central MO...far
western IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 280133Z - 280300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some intensification of ongoing convection is possible
this evening. The area will continue to be monitored for possible
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...At 0130Z, elevated convection is gradually intensifying
from southeast KS into central MO. This is likely in response to an
increasing low-level jet noted on recent VWPs from SGF/INX.
Relatively steep lapse rates noted on upstream 00Z soundings across
the central/southern Plains will continue to support moderate
elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) through the night,
while increasing midlevel flow will maintain effective shear of
40-60 kt for updrafts that become rooted below around 800 mb.
Uncertainty remains regarding the depth and organization of ongoing
convection, but any organized structures that evolve will have the
potential to produce large hail and perhaps locally gusty winds.
This area will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance,
should an uptick in storm organization occur.

..Dean/Grams.. 03/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38329524 38709477 39319342 39919131 39459074 38859013
            37859302 37089436 37109530 38329524 

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SPC MD 235

MD 0235 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 63… FOR EAST-CENTRAL KS…CENTRAL MO…SOUTHWEST IL

MD 0235 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Areas affected...East-Central KS...Central MO...Southwest IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63...

Valid 270620Z - 270745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for severe hail will continue from far east-central
KS across central MO and into southwest IL for the next several
hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over north-central
OK, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across northern
portions of southern MO into southern IL. Surface temperatures south
of the front are generally in the mid 70s, with dewpoints in the low
60s. Advection of this air mass northward across the frontal zone
will provide warm and moist inflow to the ongoing elevated storms,
likely allowing for storm persistence for the next few hours.

Overall radar presentation of the ongoing storms has trended less
cellular and more linear, perhaps as a consequence of the strong,
unidirectional vertical shear. Storm motion was estimated easterly
at 50 kt, taking the lead storm into the St. Louis area around
0730-0800Z. Despite the linear storm structure and fast storm
motion, the threat for damaging wind gusts will remain tempered by
low-level stability. As such, the primary threat remains severe
hail. Organized character of these storms will likely lead to
greater longevity than would otherwise by anticipated as they move
into the less-unstable airmass across east-central MO and southwest
IL.

..Mosier.. 03/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39129527 39289438 39339227 39188949 38728923 38289007
            38119427 38259572 39129527 

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SPC MD 234

MD 0234 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR I-70 CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN KS THROUGH MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL

MD 0234 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

Areas affected...I-70 Corridor from eastern KS through MO into
west-central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 270251Z - 270415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected after 03Z. Elevated
supercells capable of large hail and locally damaging wind will be
possible. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Regional 00Z soundings across the central/southern
Plains depict relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, with seasonably
rich low-level moisture noted across portions of OK/TX. Meanwhile,
short-term guidance and area VWPs continue to depict an increasing
southwesterly low-level jet from western OK into portions of KS,
which will favor increasing ascent (as noted with gradually
expanding radar echoes across KS) to the north of a frontal boundary
draped from northern OK into MO. This ascent, combined with
continued moisture transport into the region, is expected to result
in thunderstorm development after 03Z somewhere near the I-70
corridor from northeast KS into MO. 

Moderate instability (MUCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg
range) and strong effective shear (greater than 50 kt for storms
based around 800 mb) will support the potential for one or more
elevated supercells to develop overnight. Large hail (locally very
large) will be the primary threat, though locally damaging wind will
also be possible, especially with any forward-propagating clusters
that evolve with time. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is likely
by 04Z to address these threats.

..Dean/Grams.. 03/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39159705 39649431 39809247 39919086 39838952 38308956
            38189262 38179378 38149595 38289700 38789719 39159705 

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SPC MD 232

MD 0232 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 62… FOR NORTHEAST AL…NORTHWEST GA

MD 0232 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0945 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

Areas affected...northeast AL...northwest GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...

Valid 250245Z - 250345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.

SUMMARY...If current storm-scale and near-storm environmental trends
continue, the tornado watch can likely be cancelled within the next
hour prior to watch expiration time, which is currently scheduled
for 1am EDT/12am CDT.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery during the past hour has shown
diminishing echo tops and storm weakening across northern AL and
into adjacent parts of TN/GA.  Surface observations over northeast
AL to the south of the convective cluster have shown a gradual
veering in flow.  The 00z Atlanta observed sounding showed less than
300 J/kg MLCAPE and buoyancy has likely lessened owing to cooling of
the near-surface layer.  Given the aforementioned trends/factors,
current thinking is the potential for severe will continue to
lessen, particularly the tornado risk.  As a result, the watch may
be cancelled early if trends continue.

..Smith.. 03/25/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON   34098602 34578507 35178452 34808407 33968460 33708517
            33648612 34098602 

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SPC MD 225

MD 0225 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 60… FOR SOUTHEAST KS INTO NORTHEAST OK

MD 0225 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

Areas affected...southeast KS into northeast OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 60...

Valid 240850Z - 241015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 60
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated hail up to 1 inch will remain possible through
the early morning hours across parts of southeast Kansas and
northeast Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of strong thunderstorms will continue to shift
eastward across southeast KS and northeast OK early this morning.
The largest hail reported with these storms has been 0.75 inches in
diameter in Sedgwick County KS about an hour ago. A 50 kt
south/southwesterly low level jet will continue to spread northeast
ahead of the cluster of convection across north-central
OK/south-central KS, maintaining warm advection atop a surface warm
front. Steep midlevel lapse rates and strong vertical shear in the
presence of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE is more than adequate for sporadic
intense cells capable of near-severe hail. However, storm mode is
expected to continue to limit a more substantial hail threat. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 60 will continue across parts of southeast KS and
northeast OK, but a downstream watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman.. 03/24/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37489778 37469652 38089648 38089637 38179633 38169597
            38049595 38039509 37019507 37009500 36169503 36169511
            36089511 36079555 36169561 36159575 35929577 35909580
            35839582 35869603 36019603 36009610 36059607 36059627
            36139626 36169681 36249683 36269714 36169715 36199812
            36569808 36569744 37009746 37009779 37489778 

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SPC MD 209

MD 0209 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 57… FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA…NORTHWEST MISSOURI…NORTHEAST KANSAS

MD 0209 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0209
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...parts of southern
Iowa...northwest Missouri...northeast Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 57...

Valid 192243Z - 200045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to continue across Tornado watch
0057 for at least the next few hours. Large hail will be the primary
threat with most of these storms. The best tornado potential will be
confined to the warm side of a baroclinic zone across southwest IA.
Additional storms are developing across northeast Kansas and may
pose some severe risk should they intensify.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete transient supercells have been in
progress across southeast NE into southwest IA over the past few
hours, with a history of severe hail. Adequate instability (1000+
J/kg MLCAPE) and ample deep-layer shear (60+ knot effective bulk
shear) remains in place across southeast NE into south-central IA,
suggesting that severe potential should continue into the evening
hours. Many of the storms have crossed over or have been undercut by
a baroclinic boundary draped across far southeast NE into southwest
IA. These storms will likely remain elevated and produce mainly
severe hail. Any storm that can become surface based and mature
previous to crossing the boundary may produce a tornado given the
adequate streamwise vorticity in place.

Deep-layer ascent should continue to overspread the
Upper-Mississippi Valley with the approach of both the surface low
and a well-defined mid-level vort max through the evening,
potentially promoting the development of new storms. Storms have
recently initiated across parts of northeast Kansas and these too
may become severe as they move closer to the aforementioned
boundary, where stronger deep-layer ascent is present. This new
development will continue to be monitored over the next few hours.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 03/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39089695 40249737 41079728 41429618 41669508 41769376
            41739296 41679258 41539227 41239221 40399298 39219592
            39089695 

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SPC MD 206

MD 0206 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA…NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI…NORTHEASTERN KANSAS…AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA

MD 0206 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Areas affected...southwestern Iowa...northwestern
Missouri...northeastern Kansas...and southeastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 191941Z - 192215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Upstream destabilization and convective activity should
result in an increasing severe risk - especially after about 4pm
local time or so in Kansas/Nebraska portions of the discussion area.
 A WW is being considered.

DISCUSSION...The airmass across the discussion area has destabilized
and recovered from morning precipitation owing to 30-40 kt 850 flow
and cooling aloft associated with an approaching, vigorous trough
across west-central Kansas.  Meanwhile, a few thunderstorms have
developed very near a slow-moving surface boundary across
Saline/Fillmore counties in Nebraska.  Hail is possible with these
storms, although cross-boundary storm motions suggest that this
convection will likely become elevated atop the front soon.

Models/CAMs and observations suggest that open-warm-sector
initiation will commence - most likely after around 4pm local time.
Though low-level flow is somewhat veered, strong vertical shear
throughout the troposphere and long hodographs (resulting from
strong mid- and upper-level flow) will result in a few quickly
moving supercells capable of all modes of severe weather. 
Significant hail is possible owing to 7-7.5 C/km lapse rates and
potentially favorable (cellular) mode, while a few tornadoes may
also develop given low-level shear values (150-200m2/s2 0-1 km SRH).
This threat will likely persist through the evening hours.

..Cook/Dial.. 03/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40829770 41219693 41509534 41629407 41539270 41119196
            40369187 39749211 39389299 39329417 38889547 39269697
            39429762 40079791 40829770 

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