SPC MD 1156

MD 1156 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS…EASTERN COLORADO…AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

MD 1156 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Western Kansas...Eastern Colorado...and
Far Southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 251856Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expecting to develop this afternoon with some
of the storms likely becoming severe. Hail/wind are the main
threats.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has been moving southeast
throughout the morning over Nebraska and into northern Kansas. Just
to the west of this storm cluster, storms are expected to develop
along/near frontal boundaries stretching across northern Kansas and
into eastern Colorado. Strong daytime heating (surface temperatures
90+ F) should help focus convective initiation near these boundaries
and storms will form in a convectively conducive environment
characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear
of 30-50 knots. This should promote multicellular convection with
rotating storms capable of producing severe hail/wind this afternoon
and into the evening. These storms could organize upscale into a
QLCS this evening and track south-southeast across far eastern
Colorado and western/central Kansas. A watch is possible given the
eventual likelihood of severe storms.

..Nauslar/Hart.. 07/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40249977 40430035 40380068 40040145 39800203 39680261
            39500295 39160304 38770291 38300263 37640188 37580136
            37560078 37509972 37689911 38079838 38209814 38389776
            38659767 38869775 39149801 39539847 40249977 

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SPC MD 1110

MD 1110 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI…AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

MD 1110 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Areas affected...Southern Kansas into far northeast Oklahoma...far
southwest Missouri...and far northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 210226Z - 210400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Several strong to severe storms are possible early
tonight. Large hail will be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...The last hour of GOES-16 10.35u satellite imagery shows
expanding mid-level clouds across much of southern Kansas in an area
of moist isentropic ascent. Expect several elevated storms to form
in this area over the next hour or two. With MUCAPE of 3000 to 4000
J/kg and 50 to 60 knots of effective shear per DDC 00Z sounding and
latest RAP mesoanalysis, expect these storms to be supercellular.
Very steep mid-level lapse rates (8.5 C/km per 00Z DDC sounding)
will support a primary threat of large hail. Any storms which form
in this area will likely only last for a few hours as 700mb flow
veers and isentropic lift weakens. The duration of these storms may
limit the need for a watch, but if enough storms form, a watch may
be necessary.

..Bentley/Goss.. 07/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38070094 38150024 38229894 38189796 38119652 38029547
            37839491 37269397 36859386 36239374 36099402 36109452
            36709541 37069678 37089775 37099870 37129961 37340042
            37770098 38070094 

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SPC MD 1087

MD 1087 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283…284… FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI

MD 1087 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northeast Kansas into western Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283...284...

Valid 191943Z - 192115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283, 284
continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging winds will remain possible near
I-70 from Topeka eastward this afternoon. These storms are expected
to reach western portions of the KC metro around 4pm.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging
winds at times approaching 75+ mph, is progressing east around 45
mph along the I-70 corridor this afternoon. Ahead of this cluster,
visible satellite illustrates towering cumulus, suggesting a
sufficiently unstable downstream environment. This is supported by
the 18Z TOP sounding, which sampled steep low/mid-level lapse rates
and ample northwesterly 700-500mb flow. Furthermore, dry air beneath
500mb will enhance evaporative cooling within downdrafts already
augmented by the aforementioned strong flow. All of these factors
will likely maintain a threat of severe wind gusts (some possibly
75+ mph) reaching the KC metro (especially western portions) around
4pm.

..Picca.. 07/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39559684 39629493 39439459 38969444 38359454 38289513
            38539656 38899710 39239712 39559684 

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SPC MD 1083

MD 1083 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS

MD 1083 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1083
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northern/eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 191637Z - 191830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms over northern Kansas may
gradually spread east/southeastward through this afternoon. Some of
these storms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail. A
watch could be needed within the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has formed within a field of
ACCAS over north-central Kansas late this morning. This convective
development suggests that subtle forcing for ascent within
northwesterly flow is beginning to advance across northern Kansas.
As it does so, isolated to scattered convective initiation is
possible farther east along a surface theta-e ridge/confluence axis
extending towards the Missouri Valley. Adjusting the 12Z TOP
sounding for current conditions suggests strong buoyancy (e.g.,
MLCAPE upwards of 3000 J/kg) is already present. In turn, robust
updraft accelerations and strong thunderstorm cores will remain
possible.

Relatively straight hodographs (somewhat parallel to the corridor of
initiation as well) suggest clusters of splitting cells will be the
preferred mode. The steep lapse rate environment and hot boundary
layer will be favorable for strong cold pool generation, and this
may encourage a few bowing segments that advance east/southeast
within the northwesterly flow environment. As such, damaging winds
will be the primary threat, although embedded supercell structures
will yield the potential for large hail as well.

Due to the subtle nature of large-scale ascent, there is some
uncertainty in the timing/coverage of downstream convection.
However, the severe threat appears to be increasing sufficiently
such that a watch may be needed within the next 1-2 hours.

..Picca/Guyer.. 07/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39359975 39739983 39939959 39939716 39869656 39689541
            39429493 38889461 38219471 37919480 37449564 37509629
            38079729 38539880 39359975 

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SPC MD 1080

MD 1080 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST NE…FAR NORTHEAST KS…FAR SOUTHWEST IA…FAR NORTHWEST MO

MD 1080 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1080
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Areas affected...East/Southeast NE...Far Northeast KS...Far
Southwest IA...Far Northwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 190547Z - 190745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts and hail are expected to
remain a threat during the next several hours as the cluster of
storms continues southeastward. WW likely.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery continues to show a small but
well-defined convective system moving southeastward across eastern
NE at about 35 to 40 kt. Nocturnal stabilization has made the
downstream airmass less favorable for surface-based convection (i.e.
SBCIN is less than -50 J/kg based on recent mesoanalysis). Even so,
the very moist nature of the airmass, evidenced by dewpoints in the
mid 70s and 100mb mean mixing ratios around 16 g per kg, and at
least moderately steep mid-level lapse rates result in enough
instability to maintain elevated convection. Moisture gradient
between the drier conditions of the middle MS Valley and more moist
conditions across the central Plains will provide a favored track
for the system. As such, the general expectation is for the system
to continue southeastward for the next several hours, eventually
reaching far northeast KS and far northwest MO. Strong to severe
wind gusts and isolated hail appear probable as this system
continues southeastward and a watch will be needed to cover this
persisting threat.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40039804 41069843 41729809 42099709 41289555 40019502
            39489671 40039804 

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SPC MD 1079

MD 1079 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281… FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA

MD 1079 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1079
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0921 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Areas affected...Much of eastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281...

Valid 190221Z - 190415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281
continues.

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of hail and locally strong wind gusts
remain possible across eastern Nebraska. Isolated storms may
eventually affect northern Kansas, but a watch may not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Storms across NE has remained largely cellular this
evening owing to lengthening hodographs and sufficient low-level
SRH. 00Z soundings from the area indicate a marginally unstable
environment with relatively poor lapse rates aloft, yet ample
low-level moisture. Some increase in the southerly low-level jet
this evening may support a continued severe threat over far southern
NE and into northern KS, as capping remains minimal. However, it is
unclear whether a new watch will need to be issued at this time,
especially if storms remain isolated.

..Jewell.. 07/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   39189903 41179936 41749933 42419898 42719855 42839805
            42819750 42739704 42449659 41919616 41139585 40629573
            39919595 39489620 39189672 39109739 38999810 39019849
            39189903 

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SPC MD 1037

MD 1037 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270… FOR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA

MD 1037 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Areas affected...Northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270...

Valid 110420Z - 110615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind damage threat is likely to continue for few more
hours as a line of storms moves eastward across northern North
Dakota. A new weather watch could be needed as the line approaches
the eastern edge of the WW 270 around 0600Z although the risk should
remain spatially and temporally limited.

DISCUSSION...A well-developed linear MCS is ongoing across northwest
North Dakota, which is located along a gradient of moderate
instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values across northern
North Dakota in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. The line of storms is
being supported by the moderate instability and by large-scale
ascent associated with a shortwave trough moving eastward through
the northern Plains near the top of an upper-level ridge. The
WSR-88D VWP in northern North Dakota shows 0-6 km shear near 40 kt
with backed east-southeasterly surface winds and strongly veering
winds with height in the lowest 2 Km AGL. This wind profile will
support bowing line segments within the MCS over the next few hours.
A forward speed of around 50 kt will make wind damage possible along
the leading edge of the linear MCS.

..Broyles/Grams.. 07/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   49200259 48740291 48240293 47960265 47910199 48119906
            49149914 49330026 49280168 49200259 

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SPC MD 971

MD 0971 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 251… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS

MD 0971 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0971
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central/northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 251...

Valid 010451Z - 010615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 251
continues.

SUMMARY...While there is a residual threat for a few damaging gusts,
storms should weaken over the next few hours, reducing the severe
threat.

DISCUSSION...A small line of strong/severe storms is moving
east/southeast around 40-45 kt this evening. Despite increasing
convective inhibition with eastward extent, strong forced ascent
along the cold pool is sustaining robust convection within the line,
and damaging/severe gusts have occurred intermittently with the
line. Still, stable air with eastward extent, as well as weaker
storm-relative inflow, should lead to a downward intensity trend
over then next several hours. While a localized severe threat may
continue through about 06Z, new watch issuance is not expected.

..Picca.. 07/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   38349973 40149810 40069648 39179632 38479736 38109903
            38349973 

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SPC MD 969

MD 0969 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245…247…250… FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA EASTWARD TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY

MD 0969 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0969
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Parts of central Nebraska eastward to the Missouri
Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...247...250...

Valid 010155Z - 010330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245, 247,
250 continues.

SUMMARY...Some damaging wind potential continues across the region,
but the overall severe threat should further diminish this evening.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of strong to occasionally severe
convection are ongoing across the region. The two most likely areas
of severe/damaging wind potential exist ahead of a narrow, strongly
forced line over central Nebraska and a residual reservoir of
buoyancy between convective clusters over northeast Kansas. Through
the evening, however, further expansion of WAA-aided convection and
mergers of ongoing storms will result in significant overturning.
Combined with nocturnal cooling, the severe threat should wane
further. Of note, Watch 245 will be allowed to expire at 02Z.

..Picca.. 07/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40049839 40719984 41340038 41890047 42069959 41979608
            41619422 41099397 40049431 39139451 38539484 38619606
            39189696 40049839 

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SPC MD 963

MD 0963 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245…247…250… FOR PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA

MD 0963 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...247...250...

Valid 302309Z - 010045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245, 247,
250 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to transition towards
primarily damaging winds across Watch 247, as well as Watches 245
and 250, this evening.

DISCUSSION...Two distinct regimes of severe convection are ongoing
across Watch 247 early this evening -- one with a linear system
departing the Nebraska Panhandle and another with supercell clusters
over southern Nebraska. The linear system is accelerating east into
an area of modest surface-based buoyancy and some inhibition, as
suggested by a 19Z LBF sounding. However, large-scale ascent
associated with a sharp shortwave trough, a building cold pool
behind the line, and favorable storm-relative flow may maintain the
line as it pushes east. This evolution would favor a corridor of
damaging winds over central Nebraska.

Farther east, warm advection focused near the composite
front/outflow is supporting a mixture of supercells and multicells.
Increasing storm coverage and merging cold pools will likely favor
an increasing wind threat here as well, possibly in the form of a
small-scale convective system that accelerates east towards the
Missouri River. Prior to this evolution, some tornado/hail threat
will continue with any discrete cells, given favorable directional
shear.

..Picca.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...BOU...

LAT...LON   42170251 41899933 41349652 41059518 40249442 39839495
            39909683 40149949 41020239 42170251 

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