SPC MD 215

MD 0215 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEB AND NORTHEASTERN KS

MD 0215 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEB AND NORTHEASTERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 150236Z - 150430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE HAIL REPORT OR TWO WILL EXIST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...IN
TANDEM WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING
FRONT...HAS YIELDED AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB
AND NORTHERN KS THIS EVENING. THE 00Z TOP RAOB REVEALED STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS VERTICAL ACCELERATION
IN MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST KUEX VWP DEPICTS
VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF
WEAK UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. ALTHOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE
850-700MB LAYER FLOW AND RELATIVELY UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 700
MB SUGGEST STORM SPLITTING AND OVERALL DISORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE
MODE...ISOLATED CELLS ACQUIRING MID-LEVEL ROTATION MAY BE CAPABLE OF
A COUPLE SEVERE HAIL REPORTS LATE THIS EVENING. INDEED...ZDR NEAR 0
DB /COLLOCATED WITH FAIRLY HIGH CC/ WITHIN THE REFLECTIVITY CORE OF
THE JEWELL CO KS STORM MOST LIKELY INDICATES EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF
SMALL/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES.
NONETHELESS...BL COOLING AND A LACK OF GREATER LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE DURATION AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE
THREAT...AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

..PICCA/DIAL.. 03/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39069749 39169873 39459917 39729910 40179894 40499861
            40609812 40669702 40419594 39909550 39399559 39119642
            39069749 

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SPC Mar 14, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO TN
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MIDWEST BY EARLY WED.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON SPATIOTEMPORAL ASPECTS OF THIS WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AT LEAST MODEST
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS AN INTENSE
MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS FROM THE KS/OK BORDER AREA TOWARDS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY THROUGH 12Z/WED. A SHARP COLD FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE E OVER
THE MIDWEST TUE EVENING/NIGHT...BECOMING INCREASINGLY OCCLUDED WITH
NRN EXTENT. SRN PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD HAVE A MORE SELY PUSH FROM
THE MID-MS TO TN VALLEYS. 

...MIDWEST...
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES BUT LINGERING
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALONG
WITH POOR CONSISTENCY IN MODEL THERMODYNAMIC PROGS PRECLUDES ANY
UPGRADE TO ENHANCED RISK THIS OUTLOOK.

WITH PREVAILING WLYS AT 850 MB IN PRECEDING DAYS ACROSS THE NRN
GULF...THE BULK OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR BENEATH THIS
LEVEL FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON D2. A PLUME OF 50S SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT NWD INTO THE IA/IL/MO PORTION OF THE
MS VALLEY. BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WEAK TO MODERATE
BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. THE MOST PROBABLE CORRIDOR FOR
SURFACE-BASED INITIATION APPEARS TO BE IN PARTS OF IL AS ROBUST
MID-LEVEL DCVA APPROACHES THIS PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR.
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN GUIDANCE WITH THE STRENGTH OF 850-700 MB WINDS
WITH THE NAM SUGGESTIVE OF A WEAKNESS IN THIS PART OF THE HODOGRAPH.
AS SUCH...OVERALL MODE IS UNCERTAIN AND MAY BE A MIX OF
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND LINEAR CLUSTERS. THIS TYPE OF SETUP SHOULD
SUPPORT ALL HAZARDS WITH SEVERE HAIL POTENTIALLY BEING THE PRIMARY
RISK INITIALLY. 

ON TUE EVENING/NIGHT...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND THE
ACCELERATING COLD FRONT MIGHT SUPPORT A SMALL PROGRESSIVE MCS EWD
ACROSS IND/WRN OH WITH A PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND RISK. HOWEVER...TIME
OF DAY AND AN INCREASINGLY PINCHED-OFF WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO OUTPACE THE MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW CONVECTION WILL PLAY OUT AND IN
THE ERN EXTENT OF A SLIGHT RISK THREAT. 

...KY/TN AND NRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER WITH SRN EXTENT AS
THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL DCVA/UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN N OF
THE OH VALLEY. TRAILING PORTION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED
THUNDER TUE NIGHT. WITHIN A PLUME OF 60-65 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS
AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE
SHOULD BE PREVALENT NEAR THE FRONT. STRENGTHENING EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IF THUNDER OCCURS.

..GRAMS.. 03/14/2016

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SPC MD 208

MD 0208 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 43… FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST LA AND PART OF WESTERN MS

MD 0208 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0851 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST LA AND PART OF WESTERN
MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 43...

VALID 140151Z - 140315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 43 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ONE OR TWO ROWS OF PARISHES IN LOUISIANA AND COUNTIES IN
WEST-CENTRAL MS LOCATED IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF WW 43
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THIS TORNADO WATCH.  TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED THAT COULD RESULT IN A LOCAL WFO AREAL WATCH EXTENSION.

DISCUSSION...EARLY EVENING TRENDS IN CLOUD TOP COOLING...LIGHTNING
DATA AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS HAD DEVELOPED AND
INCREASED IN INTENSITY INTO NORTHERN LA.  IT APPEARS THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF GREATER HEIGHT FALLS AND DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE COMPACT
CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AR THIS EVENING ARE
AIDING THE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF WW 43.  THE FORT POLK LA AND JACKSON MS VWP DATA SHOWED
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  IF STORMS
IN THE EASTERN PART OF WFO-SHV COUNTY WARNING AREA /JACKSON TO
NATCHITOCHES PARISHES/ MAINTAIN SUSTENANCE AND HAVE INCREASED
FURTHER IN INTENSITY...THEN A FEW PARISHES AND COUNTIES MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF WW 43 IN
NORTHEAST LA AND WEST-CENTRAL MS.

..PETERS.. 03/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   32119283 32539257 32679128 32929051 32849018 32329058
            32039112 32009196 32119283 

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SPC Mar 13, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MODEST CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE MIDWEST BY EARLY WED. A SHARP COLD FRONT SHOULD
ACCELERATE E THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
ON TUE NIGHT.

...MIDWEST...
WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODEST WITH
PREVAILING WLYS AT 850 MB IN PRECEDING DAYS ACROSS THE NRN GULF...A
PLUME OF 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS ROBUST MID-LEVEL DCVA APPROACHES THE
IL PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR...ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD TUE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
ACCELERATES. DESPITE THE OFFSET TO THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT A SMALL
PROGRESSIVE MCS CAPABLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND RISK TUE NIGHT.

...TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DECREASE
WITH SRN EXTENT. SUSTAINED THUNDER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE TIED TO THE
IMPINGING COLD FRONT ON TUE NIGHT. WITHIN A PLUME OF LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...1000-2500 J/KG MUCAPE SHOULD BE PREVALENT ALONG THE FRONT.
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ISOLATED AT MOST AND SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE FRONT...BUT
STRENGTHENING EFFECTIVE SHEAR MIGHT SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE
RISK.

..GRAMS.. 03/13/2016

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SPC MD 195

MD 0195 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR DEEP S INTO SERN TX

MD 0195 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S INTO SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 091329Z - 091530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PERIODIC STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND COASTAL TX THROUGH MORNING...WITH WIND AND
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
ESPECIALLY OVER SERN TX INTO SWRN LA LATER TODAY.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD JUST
AHEAD AND ALONG AN ADVANCING FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM NW OF HOUSTON INTO
NWRN LA. THESE STORMS HAVE ONLY SHOWN PERIODIC STRONG CORES...AND
LITTLE OR NO ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES DESPITE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
IT IS LIKELY THAT LOW-LEVEL STRETCHING IS FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO
RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW THE LFC. HOWEVER...A
CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY...SHOULD FORCING BECOME MORE FAVORABLE EITHER ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF...WITH POCKETS OF HEATING...OR ANY MESO LOW THAT CAN
FORM.

TO THE S...MORE ROBUST STORMS WITH HIGH ECHO TOPS AND HAIL CORES ARE
DEVELOPING IN CLUSTERS ACROSS DEEP S TX...WITH MOVEMENT PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER FLOW IN A NNEWD DIRECTION. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS AS
THEY CONTINUE NNEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND POSSIBLY
EVENTUALLY PIVOTING NEWD TOWARD SERN TX WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES PERIODIC STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR EXISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE S TX ACTIVITY.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 03/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   26109846 28149911 29349797 31789470 31749388 31259324
            30499312 29619354 29089485 28439606 27819689 27019723
            26319742 25909770 26109846 

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SPC MD 181

MD 0181 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TX

MD 0181 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST MON MAR 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 080541Z - 080745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE BY 08Z.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED NEAR MIDLAND AS
DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. INCREASING ASCENT IS
EVIDENT IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
OVERSPREADS THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHWEST TX.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW IS ALSO NOTED ON REGION
88-D VWP/S. AS THE SURFACE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED WESTWARD ACROSS
WEST TX...DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN DRAMATICALLY INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S F. AS A RESULT...MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG HAVE
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MCD AREA. STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KT AND
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 DEG C/KM SAMPLED BY 00Z
REGIONAL RAOBS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND COUPLED WITH
FAST STORM MOTION...COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE
BY 08Z.

..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 03/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   29740246 30980284 31730267 32250243 32830191 33020157
            33080135 33160084 33110031 32989997 32649957 32229940
            30349949 29859963 29420012 29130069 29440106 29620139
            29740153 29760205 29740246 

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States
later today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Southern Alabama
  Southern Mississippi
  Southern Louisiana
  Western Florida Panhandle

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a few intense
  Widespread damaging winds
  Isolated large hail

* SUMMARY...
  Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes
  will be likely over portions of the Gulf Coast states Tuesday. A
  few of the tornadoes may be strong, especially Tuesday afternoon
  and into Tuesday night.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Rogers.. 02/23/2016

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SPC MD 95

MD 0095 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SRN MO…NRN AR…SERN KS…EXTREME NERN OK

MD 0095 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MO...NRN AR...SERN KS...EXTREME
NERN OK

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 140940Z - 141545Z

SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-MO VALLEY. REGIONAL VWP DATA IMPLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA
ACCOMPANYING A LLJ ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS TO
THE OZARKS AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. THE SPATIAL GAP BETWEEN
THE IMPULSE AND LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY ACCOMPANYING THE LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO NARROW DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE THE LLJ
ENCOURAGES POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF MODESTLY HIGHER THETA-E AIR.
ACCORDINGLY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING...WITH RADAR
RETURNS ALREADY NOTED FROM PARTS OF ERN KS TO THE OZARKS.

SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...
WITH RELATED DRY AIR INITIALLY CONTRIBUTING TO HYDROMETEOR
SUBLIMATION/EVAPORATION. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT WET-BULB EFFECTS WILL
FOSTER COLUMNAR SATURATION DURING THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME...WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER -- SAMPLED
BY THE 00Z SGF RAOB BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB -- WILL BE REINFORCED BY
WAA ALONG THE LLJ...SUPPORTING PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING OF
DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS. GIVEN SUB-FREEZING WET-BULB SFC
TEMPERATURES...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY. MINIMUM
BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -5C SHOULD SUPPORT SLEET IN
MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WHERE A
RELATIVELY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS AND VICINITY. 

FREEZING-RAIN RATES OF 0.02-0.05 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLEET-ACCUMULATION RATES LOCALLY REACHING ONE-TENTH
INCH PER HOUR. MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SOME
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD
LOCALLY GREATER PRECIPITATION RATES. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD.

..COHEN.. 02/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...

LAT...LON   35869147 36139374 37099504 37759534 38319506 38359370
            37669094 36828977 36119006 35869147 

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SPC MD 70

MD 0070 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR NWRN KS THROUGH SWRN…CNTRL AND ERN NEB AND EXTREME WRN IA

MD 0070 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS THROUGH SWRN...CNTRL AND ERN NEB AND
EXTREME WRN IA

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

VALID 020939Z - 021545Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INITIALLY OVER NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN NEB AND EXTREME
WRN IA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB. SNOWFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY TO 1+
INCH PER HOUR MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.

DISCUSSION...SFC LOW OVER SCNTRL KS AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING WILL
DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS THROUGH ERN KS IN RESPONSE TO FORCING WITHIN
EXIT REGION OF A NEWD-ADVANCING 150 KT UPPER JET. THE INCREASING
GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND SFC HIGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS...WITH A 60+ KT ENELY
850 MB JET LIKELY OVER ERN NEB BY 12Z. MODEST COLD ADVECTION AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. SNOW BANDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER NEB WITH RATES INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRENGTHENING LLJ AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN EVOLVING
DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE. THE
STRONG GRADIENT NORTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS FROM SWRN THROUGH ERN NEB AS SNOWFALL RATES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING.

..DIAL.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   41989478 40159742 39379950 39690128 40840085 42189812
            42809539 41989478 

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SPC MD 62

MD 0062 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH FL

MD 0062 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 270936Z - 271130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME STRONGER STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE LOWER
KEYS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS AROUND 30-50 MILES OFF THE PENINSULA...CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE COAST OF FAR SOUTHWEST FL IN VICINITY OF
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AS OF 415 AM EST/0915Z. THESE STORMS ARE
OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT THAT DELINEATES A
MORE MOISTURE-RICH MARITIME AIR MASS WITH NEAR 70F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KEY WEST AND
MIAMI...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE/MODEST BUOYANCY ARE MAXIMIZED
IN THIS NEAR-COASTAL PART OF THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AS
CONVECTION APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. EVEN WITH THESE
RECENT TRENDS...GIVEN CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING INLAND...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AMID A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST AND/OR
WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON   26538203 26868130 26528072 26158039 25338060 24988091
            24628197 25498185 25688170 26538203 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/20s7A4N