SPC MD 1252

MD 1252 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…SOUTHERN IOWA…NORTHERN MISSOURI…FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS

MD 1252 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...southern Iowa...northern
Missouri...far northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 062338Z - 070145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms along a cold front will be capable of mainly severe
wind gusts with perhaps an isolated instance of severe hail. A WW is
not anticipated though trends in storm organization are being
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Storms have initiated along a cold front from Nemaha
County, KS northeastward to areas along the Iowa/Missouri border in
response to a mid-level wave approaching from the northwest. Local
subsidence in the wake of a weak disturbance now located in western
Illinois appears to be limiting storm coverage currently; however,
increasing influence of the upstream trough should increase coverage
with time. Effective bulk shear values of 30-45 kts -- increasing
modestly with time -- will support storm organization. Modest
mid-level lapse rates should limit the hail threat. Strong surface
heating has contributed to MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg and, with
low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km, a threat for severe wind gusts
will be greatest threat. Concerns regarding the overall coverage of
the threat make a WW unlikely. However, should a more organized
linear system evolve, a WW would be possible.

..Wendt/Hart.. 08/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40689647 41209523 41269386 41009200 40619146 40179219
            39999350 39849463 39709564 39729637 40219669 40689647 

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SPC MD 1205

MD 1205 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AR.

MD 1205 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0950 AM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

Areas affected...portions of southern AR.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 301450Z - 301645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The remains of an overnight convective complex, having
entered southwestern AR, may produce strong/isolated severe gusts
through the remaining forenoon hours.  The severe threat presently
appears too marginal in magnitude and limited in coverage for a
watch, but will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Some re-intensification trend has been noted with the
convective complex over the past 30-60 minutes -- both in IR
cloud-top cooling and radar-composite imagery.  Surface mesoanalysis
shows a weak, quasistationary frontal zone in preconvective
environment over southern AR, representing the trailing extension of
a cold front extending southwestward from a frontal-wave low over
western KY.  A corridor of relatively maximized convergence, in
otherwise weak boundary-layer flow, may help to focus convective
coverage/strength over the next few hours as the residual cold pool
of the MCS continues forward-propagating along and behind its
outflow boundary.  The favorably moist air mass over southern AR
should continue to destabilize somewhat before thicker anvil cloud
cover moves overhead, offsetting modest midlevel lapse rates enough
to boost MLCAPE to near 1500 J/kg, based on modifications to both
model soundings and an interpolation of 12Z SHV/LZK RAOBs. 
Low-level and deep shear each will remain weak.  The bulk of
reflectivity may remain several miles behind the outflow boundary,
except for a warm-advection wing not directly related to the cold
pool and posing minimal severe threat on its own.  As such,
organized severe potential appears limited, but isolated damaging
gusts still are possible.

..Edwards/Grams.. 07/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33199388 33589405 34319395 34439290 34329196 33259192
            33129286 33199388 

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SPC MD 1199

MD 1199 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 322… FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING…EASTERN COLORADO…WESTERN NEBRASKA…AND FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS

MD 1199 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming...eastern Colorado...western
Nebraska...and far northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 322...

Valid 292323Z - 300030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 322 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 322.

DISCUSSION...Southeastward-moving thunderstorms continue to migrate
across WW 322 at this time.  Favorable shear/buoyancy profiles have
supported occasional tornado and very large hail reports -
especially with a cluster of supercells migrating across
northeastern Colorado.  Over the past hour or so, one dominant
high-precipitation supercell has evolved over Morgan and Washington
Counties and an expansive cold pool has spread northwest from this
storm across much of Weld County and vicinity.  This may signal the
beginning of upscale growth advertised by the past several runs of
high-res models.  

Upstream (in southeastern Wyoming), cellular storms may continue to
pose a threat for very large hail and a tornado or two given
favorable shear profiles and storm mode.  Eventually, ongoing storms
will move top the remnant cold pool across northeastern Colorado,
which may lessen the overall tornado threat but still support large
hail in the strongest cores.

Farther south, convection near/west of Pueblo, CO has exhibited
brief supercellular characteristics and necessitated a spatial
expansion of the WW.  Hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes may
evolve from any dominant storm that can materialize in this region.

..Cook.. 07/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   43420632 43540561 43510433 43030318 41970228 40860186
            39760147 38570158 38260164 38040218 37650308 37570419
            37830505 38250538 38850533 39700513 40470542 41020617
            41940652 42850659 43420632 

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SPC MD 1179

MD 1179 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 315… FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING…SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA…EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS

MD 1179 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Areas affected...southeast Wyoming...southwest Nebraska...eastern
Colorado and western Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 315...

Valid 272323Z - 280100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 315 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for a couple tornadoes, isolated large hail, and
damaging wind will persist across WW 315 next couple hours. A more
substantial severe/damaging wind threat may evolve over the
southeastern portion of WW 315 and into severe thunderstorm watch
317 from east central Colorado through western KS into mid-evening.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening, numerous storms are developing
along a what appears to be a convectively reinforced boundary from
north central KS into northeast CO. Mostly discrete supercell
structures persist over KS. However, there has been a tendency for
storms to congeal into a small cluster across northeast CO. The
atmosphere across southeast CO into western KS remains moderately
unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and is weakly capped. This along
with a strengthening southerly nocturnal low-level jet will continue
to support development along the consolidated outflows, and tendency
should be for storms to grow upscale into a southward-advancing MCS.
While large hail, and a couple tornadoes remain possible in the
short term, greatest severe threat should transition to damaging
wind.

Farther north across the remainder of tornado watch 315 from
southeast WY into western NE and far northeast CO, much of the
boundary layer has been stabilized by convective outflow. However,
latest objective analysis indicates the presence of moderate MUCAPE
for parcels lifted from above the surface layer. Therefore storms
over southeast WY will remain capable of producing mainly large hail
as they move southeast and become elevated over top of the stable
layer next couple hours.

..Dial.. 07/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37689925 37590105 38480275 39290275 39160040 38829932
            37689925 

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High
Plains this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Western Kansas
  Far northeast Colorado
  Far southwest Nebraska

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A couple of tornadoes
  Widespread large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Numerous severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening
  across the central High Plains with very large hail, intense
  wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Grams.. 07/27/2018

$$

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SPC MD 1166

MD 1166 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MT

MD 1166 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Areas affected...Portions of south-central MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 261910Z - 262145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of severe hail and severe wind gusts
will evolve through the area this afternoon but are expected to be
isolated enough to preclude a Watch.

DISCUSSION...A subtle perturbation in relatively moist mid-to-upper
level flow rounding the top of the western ridge, sufficient
mid-level lapse rates, and surface heating within low 50s dewpoints
has contributed to isolated thunderstorms early this afternoon. 
Continued heating should contribute to further destabilization ahead
of the storms moving off the Big Snowy Mountains, as well over the
higher elevations to the west and northwest of there.  

An additional storm or two is expected to emerge from the decaying
storms currently over Musselshell county as a corridor of increasing
MLCAPE and steepening low-level lapse rates becomes established over
the area.  Effective shear in the 35-45 kt range should allow for
supercell structures and severe hail/wind potential as these storms
respond to the increasing CAPE.  Additional thunderstorms should
develop off the Little and Big Belt Mountains to the north and west
into the Glacier National Park area, where a similar environment
will also support a severe hail/wind threat.  However, given the
weak large-scale forcing for ascent and somewhat limited
instability, the coverage of storms/severe weather is expected to
remain low enough to preclude a Watch, but the area will be
monitored throughout the afternoon for signs of a more widespread
severe threat.

..Coniglio/Hart.. 07/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   45130893 45241010 45841194 46961336 47621375 48251393
            48791351 48771306 48201179 47500999 47040881 46460782
            45870748 45480754 45010773 45120883 45130893 

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SPC MD 1156

MD 1156 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS…EASTERN COLORADO…AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

MD 1156 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Western Kansas...Eastern Colorado...and
Far Southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 251856Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expecting to develop this afternoon with some
of the storms likely becoming severe. Hail/wind are the main
threats.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has been moving southeast
throughout the morning over Nebraska and into northern Kansas. Just
to the west of this storm cluster, storms are expected to develop
along/near frontal boundaries stretching across northern Kansas and
into eastern Colorado. Strong daytime heating (surface temperatures
90+ F) should help focus convective initiation near these boundaries
and storms will form in a convectively conducive environment
characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear
of 30-50 knots. This should promote multicellular convection with
rotating storms capable of producing severe hail/wind this afternoon
and into the evening. These storms could organize upscale into a
QLCS this evening and track south-southeast across far eastern
Colorado and western/central Kansas. A watch is possible given the
eventual likelihood of severe storms.

..Nauslar/Hart.. 07/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40249977 40430035 40380068 40040145 39800203 39680261
            39500295 39160304 38770291 38300263 37640188 37580136
            37560078 37509972 37689911 38079838 38209814 38389776
            38659767 38869775 39149801 39539847 40249977 

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SPC MD 1110

MD 1110 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI…AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

MD 1110 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Areas affected...Southern Kansas into far northeast Oklahoma...far
southwest Missouri...and far northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 210226Z - 210400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Several strong to severe storms are possible early
tonight. Large hail will be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...The last hour of GOES-16 10.35u satellite imagery shows
expanding mid-level clouds across much of southern Kansas in an area
of moist isentropic ascent. Expect several elevated storms to form
in this area over the next hour or two. With MUCAPE of 3000 to 4000
J/kg and 50 to 60 knots of effective shear per DDC 00Z sounding and
latest RAP mesoanalysis, expect these storms to be supercellular.
Very steep mid-level lapse rates (8.5 C/km per 00Z DDC sounding)
will support a primary threat of large hail. Any storms which form
in this area will likely only last for a few hours as 700mb flow
veers and isentropic lift weakens. The duration of these storms may
limit the need for a watch, but if enough storms form, a watch may
be necessary.

..Bentley/Goss.. 07/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38070094 38150024 38229894 38189796 38119652 38029547
            37839491 37269397 36859386 36239374 36099402 36109452
            36709541 37069678 37089775 37099870 37129961 37340042
            37770098 38070094 

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SPC MD 1087

MD 1087 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 283…284… FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI

MD 1087 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northeast Kansas into western Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283...284...

Valid 191943Z - 192115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283, 284
continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging winds will remain possible near
I-70 from Topeka eastward this afternoon. These storms are expected
to reach western portions of the KC metro around 4pm.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging
winds at times approaching 75+ mph, is progressing east around 45
mph along the I-70 corridor this afternoon. Ahead of this cluster,
visible satellite illustrates towering cumulus, suggesting a
sufficiently unstable downstream environment. This is supported by
the 18Z TOP sounding, which sampled steep low/mid-level lapse rates
and ample northwesterly 700-500mb flow. Furthermore, dry air beneath
500mb will enhance evaporative cooling within downdrafts already
augmented by the aforementioned strong flow. All of these factors
will likely maintain a threat of severe wind gusts (some possibly
75+ mph) reaching the KC metro (especially western portions) around
4pm.

..Picca.. 07/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39559684 39629493 39439459 38969444 38359454 38289513
            38539656 38899710 39239712 39559684 

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 19 at 2:56PM CDT until July 19 at 3:15PM CDT by NWS

…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN GEARY…SOUTHEASTERN RILEY…NORTHEASTERN MORRIS… WESTERN SHAWNEE…WABAUNSEE…SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES… At 255 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 5 miles north of Emmett to near Maple Hill to 7 miles