…RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS, AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 008, 020, 021, 022, 023, 024, 026, 034, 035, 036, 037, 038, 039, 040, 054, 055, 056, 058, AND 059… The National Weather Service in Topeka has issued a Red Flag
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great Basin and along the California coast. ...CA Coast/Great Basin... Significant mid-level height falls are expected to spread inland across the western US ahead of a strong short-wave trough that will approach the CA coast late in the period. Large-scale forcing for ascent will aid mid-level moistening across NV/OR/ID as lapse rates steepen and convection should develop towards 14/00z as stronger flow aloft translates into this region. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Great basin into the late evening hours. Farther west along the northern/central CA coast, profiles are expected to cool significantly during the day as mid-level temperatures drop in advance of approaching trough. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient buoyancy will evolve by late afternoon for lightning production within the deepest updrafts, primarily near the coast. ..Darrow.. 03/12/2018
from SPC Convective Outlooks http://bit.ly/1LHQZVW
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday across portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. ...Great Basin/Central Rockies... Strong short-wave trough will translate into NV by 18z Wednesday before ejecting into ID/WY by 15/06z. Large-scale forcing for ascent should aid mid-level moistening as lapse rates steepen in advance of this feature. Additionally, modest boundary-layer heating is expected to contribute to destabilization and forecast soundings favor at least some potential for deep convection ahead of the short wave. While PW values will remain seasonally low across this region, cold mid-level temperatures should enhance lightning production. For these reasons have introduced 10% thunder probabilities to account for convective potential primarily between 14/18z-15/02z. ..Darrow.. 03/12/2018
from SPC Convective Outlooks http://bit.ly/1CYpnJx
Mesoscale Discussion 0115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 Areas affected...Northeast TX...Far Southwest AR...Far Northwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 110408Z - 110615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some isolated hail is possible tonight across portions of northeast TX, far southwest AR, and far northwest AR. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over central TX with a warm front arcing east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. Cooling cloud tops have been noted within the IR imagery across northeast TX region during the past two hours and recent regional radar imagery has shown quick development over the area. 00Z FWD and SHV soundings sampled a steep lapse rate environment (i.e. around 7.0 degree C per km) and MUCAPE over 1800 J/kg. Current mesoanalysis suggests this environment still exists over the region and that continued warm-air advection into the frontal zone is expected to result in increased thunderstorm coverage. Strong vertical shear was also sampled by the 00Z soundings (i.e. effective shear over 50 kt). There is some uncertainty regarding short-term storm coverage, given that the region is on the far southwest edge of the shortwave trough progressing through the Ozark Plateau and forcing for ascent is currently modest. However, storms should increase along the front tonight and given the favorable kinematic and thermodynamic environment, the potential for severe hail exists and trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance. Low confidence in the overall scenario currently precludes higher watch probabilities. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/11/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 33429610 33629513 33279335 32639303 32269385 32719621 33429610
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2Ho9MWZ
Mesoscale Discussion 0111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Wed Mar 07 2018 Areas affected...New Jersey...Southeast Pennsylvania...Southeast New York...Southern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 071825Z - 080030Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall is expected to continue across parts of southeast Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York City this afternoon gradually spreading northeastward into southern New England. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 995 mb low about 110 statute miles east of the southern Delaware coast. A pronounced dry slot evident on water vapor imagery is located just off the New Jersey coast. Water vapor imagery shows rapidly cooling cloud tops over the last couple of hours in the southern part of the MCD area and lightning strikes are also noted. This is due to the approach of a band of large-scale ascent associated with a negatively-tilted upper-level trough moving through the Mid-Atlantic. This combined with strong isentropic ascent oriented parallel to the coast and just inland is maintaining a band of moderate to heavy precipitation. Although surface temperatures from New Jersey north-northeastward into southern New England are generally just above freezing, temperatures have cooled a couple degrees over the last hour. This dynamic cooling has resulted in a change-over from rain to snow in the New York City vicinity over the last hour. The heaviest snowfall is occurring within a band oriented from south-southwest to north-northeast across New Jersey and southeastern New York. This band will continue to spread north-northeastward into southern New England this afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be common. A few spots could receive snowfall rates of more than 2 inches per hour especially related to convection. Locations in far southeastern Massachusetts near Cape Cod will likely remain rain through early evening. ..Broyles/Hart.. 03/07/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI... LAT...LON 40507320 39827419 39497519 39877578 40547564 42067372 42587157 42557086 42237057 41807059 41337106 41007213 40507320
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1nIej5e
…WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING… * TIMING…into the early evening hours. * WINDS…Sustained northwest winds of 25 to 35 MPH with gusts of 45 to 50 MPH. * IMPACTS…Travel will be difficult for high-profile vehicles. Loose and light weight objects may be blown around.
…WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING… * TIMING…This morning through the afternoon and early evening hours. * WINDS…Sustained northwest winds of 25 to 35 MPH with gusts of 45 to 50 MPH. * IMPACTS…Travel will be difficult for high-profile vehicles.
…WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING… * TIMING…The strongest winds on Tuesday are expected mid morning through early evening. * WINDS…Sustained northwest winds of 25 to 35 MPH with gusts of 45 to 50 MPH.
…WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CST TUESDAY… * TIMING…The strongest winds on Tuesday are expected mid morning through early evening. * WINDS…Sustained northwest winds of 25 to 35 MPH with gusts of 45 to 50 MPH.
…WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING… …WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CST TUESDAY… * TIMING…The strongest winds today are expected to continue through the afternoon hours. The strongest winds on Tuesday are expected mid morning through early evening.