SPC MD 1570


MD 1570 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Areas affected...portions of far West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121944Z - 122145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong/locally severe storms could evolve this
afternoon near the higher terrain of west Texas.  WW issuance is not
anticipated for this potential/initial risk.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicated TCU
development over the higher terrain of far West Texas -- i.e.
portions of Jeff Davis, Brewster, and Pecos Counties, where clearing
of the cloud cover has allowed differential heating to occur over
the higher terrain.  With modest (low 60s) dewpoints indicated
across this region, the heating has contributed to gradual
destabilization (surface-based CAPE values in the 500 to 1500 J/kg
range per latest objective analyses).

The cu field remains suppressed away from the high terrain,
indicative of modest larger-scale ascent at best.  Even over the
higher terrain, TCU continue to shed any glaciated tops, again
suggestive of a larger-scale environment not yet supportive of
robust deep updrafts.

With time, continued heating and the gradual approach of Sergio from
the west may support isolated CB development over the mountains
through diurnal peak heating.  With moderately strong
west-southwesterly mid-level flow, updraft organization -- and
possible, attendant risk for hail -- could occur locally.  This risk
however should remain isolated at best into the evening hours.

Later this evening, as Sergio continues to approach, more
substantial convective development/coverage is expected, which could
result in the need for WW issuance consideration at that time.

..Goss/Grams.. 10/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   30640426 31030401 31340319 31260272 31220254 30950208
            30530199 29960268 29370339 29890403 30640426 

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SPC MD 1552


MD 1552 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1552
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...western Missouri and northwestern

Concerning...Tornado Watch 403...404...

Valid 092006Z - 092130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 403, 404 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the region may pose a risk
for tornadoes and localized strong wind gusts through 6-7 PM CDT

DISCUSSION...The slowly deepening surface low center appears in the
process of developing to the east/northeast of Salina KS, and likely
to continue northeastward toward the Falls City NE area through
23-00Z.  Large clockwise curved low-level hodographs are focused
within the warm sector in close proximity to the low, and along/to
the immediate east of the arcing convective band now advancing into
the Kansas City metro area.  

A number of cells within the convective band, as well as along a
remnant convective boundary extending northeastward (roughly along
the Interstate 35 corridor) are slowly organizing and intensifying
in the presence of high boundary layer moisture content (surface dew
points now near 70f) and weak to modest CAPE (up to 1000 J/kg).  
This environment appears conducive to occasional continuing
development of low-level mesocyclones, accompanied by a risk for
tornadoes and/or locally damaging wind gusts, and will gradually
shift northeast of the Kansas City area toward the Missouri/Iowa
border area through early evening.

..Kerr.. 10/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   40739347 40489299 40109259 38639401 37829350 37169349
            37469440 38229510 38959583 39549525 40489442 40739347 

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SPC MD 1549


MD 1549 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1549
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...western Missouri...northeast
Oklahoma and adjacent northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 402...

Valid 091631Z - 091800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 402 continues.

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development expected through 2-4
PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for tornadoes and localized damaging
wind gusts.  A new watch may become necessary within the next hour
or two.

DISCUSSION...A narrow line of convection with embedded
thunderstorms, within the warm sector of the developing surface low,
continues to advance northeastward around 30-35 kt.  Activity will
spread northeast of the watch within the next hour or two.  

The surface low, currently near the Kansas/Oklahoma border to the
south of Wichita, continues to slowly deepen, and is forecast to
migrate north/northeastward toward the Salina KS vicinity through
19-21Z.  As it does, strongest southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of
40 kt) appears likely to develop northward across much of eastern
Kansas and adjacent western Missouri.  

This will be accompanied by enlargement of low-level hodographs,
particularly along a remnant convectively generated boundary that
appears roughly aligned with the Interstate 35 corridor.  Although
cloud cover and rain is slowing destabilization along this corridor,
breaks in overcast coupled with further gradual boundary layer
moistening should allow for increasing boundary layer instability
through mid to late afternoon.  As it does, the environment may
become increasingly conducive to the development of low-level
mesocyclones within strengthening convection, accompanied by a risk
for tornadoes and localized damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 10/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   38059651 39229565 40399395 38819342 37569306 35559390
            35169520 36379581 37419638 38059651 

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Flood Watch issued October 09 at 12:01AM CDT by NWS

…FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING… The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of central Kansas, east central Kansas, north central Kansas, and northeast Kansas, including the following areas, in central Kansas, Dickinson. In east central Kansas, Anderson, Coffey, Douglas, Franklin, Geary, Lyon, Morris,