SPC MD 1297

MD 1297 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389…390… FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS

MD 1297 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Areas affected...Western/southern Nebraska and western Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389...390...

Valid 210429Z - 210600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389, 390
continues.

SUMMARY...Overall severe-weather potential continues to diminish
in/near Severe Thunderstorm Watches 389/390, with a lingering risk
mainly across northwest Kansas. Watch 389 will likely expire by/at
05Z.

DISCUSSION...A linearly organized band of storms continues to settle
south-southeastward across northwest Kansas, with the stronger
updrafts embedded within the westernmost portion of the line just
south of I-70 and Goodland/Colby areas as of 1015 pm MDT. Cloud tops
have tended to gradually warm and the advancing cluster should
continue to encounter increasing boundary layer inhibition and
lesser buoyancy with southward extent. Thus, the severe-weather
potential should continue to trend increasingly marginal over the
next 1-2 hours, and an additional Watch issuance or extension is not
expected.

Farther north, additional upscale quasi-linear growth could occur
with multiple clusters ongoing across south-central Nebraska. While
a localized severe thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out,
increasingly stable nocturnally/convectively influenced inflow
should keep the severe potential limited.

..Guyer.. 07/21/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39300187 39610062 40559964 41359958 41989990 41459820
            40519885 39239926 38720144 39300187 

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SPC MD 1287

MD 1287 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NE…NORTHERN KS

MD 1287 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Areas affected...Central/southern NE...Northern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 200714Z - 200915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms are expected overnight. Localized
severe wind/hail is possible, though the threat appears relatively
limited. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...At 07Z, convection is increasing in coverage across
central NE into northern KS, in advance of a convectively enhanced
shortwave trough moving eastward out of the central High Plains.
While deep-layer shear is generally weak across the region (in the
20-30 kt range), convection is expected to continue increasing in
coverage within a warm-advection regime attendant to the shortwave.
Moderate MUCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) will support a localized hail risk
with the strongest newer updrafts, while continued consolidation of
convection may result in at least temporary bowing structures
capable of locally damaging wind. 

The greatest relative risk will likely be over northern KS and far
southern NE, in closer proximity the primary surface boundary and
somewhat greater elevated buoyancy. The overall threat is expected
to remain too limited for watch issuance.

..Dean/Edwards.. 07/20/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39169930 39279988 39400031 39520044 40440012 40730002
            41079990 41369978 41489957 41699920 41829886 41829824
            41709746 41279695 40839669 40549653 39809618 39519604
            39229643 39149732 39139790 39149881 39169930 

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SPC MD 1281

MD 1281 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI

MD 1281 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into central and eastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192000Z - 192200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible within the next 1-2
hours. A couple strong to severe storms are possible and may pose a
risk for hail and strong wind.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery shows increasingly agitated cumulus
along a stationary frontal boundary draped across MO and into
northeast KS. The onset of convective initiation may be occurring to
the northeast of the Topeka, KS area, as well as northwest of St.
Louis, MO along this boundary. This suggests that thunderstorm
development is probable within the next one to two hours, and will
become increasingly likely heading into the late afternoon hours as
destabilization continues. These storms will develop within a
moderately unstable air mass, characterized by upwards of 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE. However, deep layer shear is relatively marginal across most
of this region, with slightly more favorable effective bulk shear in
place along the instability gradient across northern MO. Due to the
weak shear fields and the increasing possibility of storm
interactions with time (due to storm motions nearly along the
boundary), storms may struggle to maintain organization long enough
to pose a robust severe threat. Despite this concern, a couple of
strong to severe storms are possible and may pose a threat for
severe hail and strong wind, especially initially before more
widespread convection occurs along the boundary.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39429598 39539489 39549246 39479131 39199043 38739034
            38529104 38349264 38529428 38649541 38899616 39209621
            39429598 

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SPC MD 1277

MD 1277 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO

MD 1277 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1277
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Areas affected...East central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191836Z - 192030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong winds and marginally severe hail are
possible with thunderstorms this afternoon. This threat should be
limited in duration and coverage, so a watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour have shown a gradual
strengthening in convection across central CO. IR satellite imagery
supports this trend with cooling cloud top temperatures noted in a
couple of storms. While the thermodynamic environment is favorable
for continued convection (with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE noted in recent
RAP mesoanalysis along and east of the CO Front Range), the shear
regime over the region is very weak and will continue to support
disorganized clusters of storms. However, steep 0-3 km lapse rates
between 8-9 C/km and a nearly 3 km deep dry sub-cloud layer will
support the potential for occasional downburst winds with the
strongest storms. Additionally, marginally severe hail will be
possible with the stronger updraft pulses. The general expectation
is for this activity to gradually increase in coverage as storms
move off the higher terrain and into eastern CO. However, given the
expected short duration of any one storm and isolated nature of the
threat, a watch is not anticipated.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37810465 38170520 38850547 39690560 40230525 40510460
            40540376 39980294 38930271 37870313 37790397 37810465 

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SPC MD 1269

MD 1269 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

MD 1269 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

Areas affected...North Central/Northeast Kansas and South Central
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 190249Z - 190415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Cluster of storms may continue tracking into northeast
Kansas over the next few hours, with a continued risk for damaging
wind gusts. Watch issuance remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a cluster of storms has formed,
with the strongest cells located in north-central Kansas and a
trailing line of convection into southwest Kansas that has recently
expanded in coverage. The strongest storms have produced measured
wind gusts of 60-70 mph. This line of storms is moving into an
instability axis that increases with eastward extent, ranging from
3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE, as well as increasing CINH. Shear remains
rather weak over the region, with perhaps a subtle improvement with
time as the upper-level trough located over the northern Plains
continues to progress southward.

There is considerable uncertainty in the short term evolution of
these storms, given poor analysis/representation in the latest
convection-allowing guidance. Given the expansive coverage of
convection, it seems plausible for these storms to continue until at
least 06z-07z and track along/near the northern tier of counties in
Kansas, following the axis of instability within generally westerly
flow aloft. Should this occur, these storms will continue to pose a
risk for a few damaging wind gusts over the next few hours. However,
increasing convective inhibition and outflow that is now surging
ahead of the convection (per KUEX trends) may limit the overall
severe threat. Convective trends will continue to be monitored,
however, watch issuance remains unlikely.

..Karstens/Bunting.. 07/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38360009 38940011 39489947 40019942 40329866 39999623
            39209600 38519695 38360009 

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2020

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains
this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Eastern North Dakota
  Northwestern Minnesota

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A couple of tornadoes
  Isolated large hail up to baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
  northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Friday afternoon into
  early Saturday morning. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a
  few tornadoes will be possible.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Edwards.. 07/17/2020

$$

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SPC MD 1230

MD 1230 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI

MD 1230 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

Areas affected...central through eastern Kansas into northwest
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 150607Z - 150700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for a few strong to damaging wind gusts and some
hail will exist through the early morning across a portion of
central through eastern Kansas. Trends are being monitored for a
possible WW.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing in multiple regimes
including across southwest Kansas in association with an MCV as well
as across south central and southeast Kansas within an evolving warm
advection regime. Objective analysis indicates a reservoir of
moderate instability remaining across eastern Kansas with 2000-2500
J/kg MLCAPE. Storms have recently shown some intensification and
organization across south central KS, and this activity will
continue to be monitored for persistence and possible evolution into
a forward propagating line/cluster as it develops eastward through
the moderately unstable environment.

..Dial/Thompson.. 07/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38009831 38479804 39029673 38899590 38209572 37429660
            37379808 38009831 

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SPC MD 1228

MD 1228 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 369…371… FOR SOUTHEAST CO…EASTERN OK/TX PANHANDLE…SOUTHWEST KS…NORTHWEST OK

MD 1228 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0924 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Eastern OK/TX Panhandle...Southwest
KS...Northwest OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 369...371...

Valid 150224Z - 150430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 369, 371
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across the south-central High
Plains.

DISCUSSION...Two separate linear MCSs, each about 75 miles long,
have evolved over the south-central High Plains this evening. This
activity initially struggled a bit, but each MCS appears to be
ingesting more buoyant air, with storm-top venting much more robust
over the last hour. Measured severe wind gusts have been noted with
the southern-most squall line, and severe gusts are also likely
occurring across southeastern CO as well. Over the next few hours,
LLJ will increase markedly over western OK which should encourage
eastward propagation north of the synoptic front. Damaging winds
remain the primary threat.

..Darrow.. 07/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   38250212 38190028 36069950 35740065 36850111 37260223
            38250212 

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SPC MD 1219

MD 1219 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN KANSAS

MD 1219 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Areas affected...eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 140831Z - 140930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may continue to pose some risk for isolated
damaging wind next couple hours across a portion of eastern and
southeast Kansas. Trends are being monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...An MS over central KS has intensified during the past
30 min or so with radar base velocity data now indicating a corridor
of 70 kt winds at 7000 ft, but some of this momentum might extend to
lower levels and could be reaching the surface. The MCS is being
driven by an MCV and intensifying low-level jet. Deep convergence
along the gust front might remain sufficient to sustain storms
through a corridor of moderate instability next few hours before the
low-level jet begins to veer and weaken.

..Dial/Thompson.. 07/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38089849 38689784 38849674 38289582 37709572 37259668
            37759797 38089849 

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SPC MD 1218

MD 1218 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL KS…CENTRAL NE

MD 1218 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Areas affected...central KS...central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 140155Z - 140300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch to the east of severe
thunderstorm watch #366 will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic this evening shows a north-south oriented
thunderstorm cluster from southwest NE into northwest KS.  The North
Platte ASOS recently observed a 76-kt gust at 842pm CDT.  Surface
analysis over central KS into central NE shows a moist boundary
layer evident by dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 deg F. 
Although temperatures will gradually cool this evening, moderate
instability resides over the discussion area.  The 7pm CDT North
Platte, NE observed sounding showed 2600 J/kg MLCAPE and an 8.5
700-500mb lapse rate.  KUEX VAD has shown only a slight
strengthening in 1-2km AGL flow over the past hour, but additional
intensification of the LLJ is expected this evening, which should
aid in northward moisture transport and isentropic lift.  It is
uncertain how far east a risk for severe gusts will exist before
storms weaken and the environment becomes less supportive for severe
gusts.

..Smith/Hart.. 07/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38300027 41349916 41299736 38319861 38300027 

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