SPC MD 718

MD 0718 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221… FOR CENTRAL KANSAS

MD 0718 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0718
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0830 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Areas affected...Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221...

Valid 250130Z - 250230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221
continues.

SUMMARY...Several clusters of severe storms are ongoing across
WW221. Severe hail and wind are likely to continue with storms
across Kansas through 0500z. Thus, the severe threat continues for
WW221.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of strong to severe storms have
maintained their intensity along and east of slow moving cold front
across western Kansas. MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg will continue to
support robust updrafts through the 0500z expiration time of WW221.
Severe hail remains the primary threat for the next couple of hours
with the strong instability and steep mid-level lapse rates. Recent
reports of greater than 2 inch hail across southwest and central
Kansas lends support for a continued severe hail threat. While
vertical shear remains relatively limited at 20-30 kt, the increase
in the nocturnal low-level jet may promote some additional
development and organization over the next couple of hours. This
would support a greater threat for damaging winds with increased
momentum transfer in ongoing downdrafts. Hi-resolution guidance
supports this scenario, particularly across central Kansas, where
upscale growth appears likely.

..Lyons.. 05/25/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37000206 40199924 40199679 37019972 37000206 

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SPC MD 711

MD 0711 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

MD 0711 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0711
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Areas affected...kansas into southern Nebraska.

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 242214Z - 242345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
damaging winds are likely this evening. A weather watch is likely
needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are forming across portions of Kansas and
Nebraska on a stationary/ cold front ahead of diffuse dryline.
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is present across the warm sector which
will support robust updrafts. Mid-level flow is relatively weak, and
displaced from the main warm sector. However, 25-35 kt of effective
shear will still support storm organization in a mixed mode of
supercells and line segments. An outflow boundary from previous
convection may also serve as a focus for further storm development
across central Kansas. A weather watch will likely be issued
shortly.

..Lyons.. 05/24/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37850064 38210063 38320042 38560016 38999990 39319976
            39669969 40019963 40289936 40459899 40619863 40799809
            40839769 40609743 39899741 39229739 38519732 37849738
            37039743 37049772 37080049 37380049 37850064 

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SPC MD 709

MD 0709 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217… FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…SOUTHWEST IOWA…AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI

MD 0709 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0709
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...and Northwest
Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217...

Valid 242025Z - 242200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217
continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging wind and large hail threat continues across
watch 217.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed north of an MCV
located west of Topeka at 20Z. The widespread storm coverage and
subsequent storm interference has limited the intensity of this
convection thus far. The exception is the far eastern cell in this
line which has produced golf ball to baseball sized hail. This will
continue to be the area with the greatest threat for very large hail
given the unimpeded storm inflow. Despite the lack of more intense
storms farther west, these storms still pose a severe threat as the
downstream airmass features 1500 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective
shear remains around 40 knots per EAX VWP. In addition, surface flow
remains backed ahead of this convection and thus a tornado or two
cannot be ruled out.

..Bentley.. 05/24/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40279645 40989666 41669634 42139574 42259526 42179350
            41309341 40249359 39829393 39629432 39819478 39949568
            40279645 

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SPC MD 704

MD 0704 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS…FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…SOUTHWEST IOWA…AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI

MD 0704 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0704
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Far southeast Nebraska...Southwest
Iowa...and northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 241813Z - 241945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected in the next
1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and composite radar imagery as well
as 18Z surface observations show a well pronounced MCV just north of
Wichita. The area east and northeast of the this MCV has
destabilized with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s. SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCIN has mostly eroded across
this region with MLCAPE ranging from 1000 to 2500 J/kg with the
greatest instability in northern Missouri. Therefore, more
widespread storm development is expected in the next 1 to 2 hours in
the vicinity of the MCV and the outflow boundaries in northeast
Kansas and northwest Missouri. Evidence of a compact mid-level
circulation with enhanced flow can be seen on the ICT and TWX VWP
where mid-level winds are 40 knots out of the west-southwest and 50
knots out of the southeast respectively. This stronger flow will aid
in storm organization later this afternoon as the airmass ahead and
east of this MCV continues to destabilize and more robust updraft
development begins. Effective shear will support some supercell
storm modes with a threat for both large hail and damaging winds. 

In addition, there is a conditional tornado threat in the vicinity
of the outflow boundaries and where surface winds can remain backed
ahead and east of the MCV. While low-level flow isn't all that
strong, there will be some low-level turning where winds remain
backed and the EAX VWP shows a belt of 30 knot southwesterly winds
between 2-3 km suggesting some speed shear in this vicinity.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/24/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38169486 38339620 38639693 39309723 40209681 41129597
            41689551 42069387 41819293 40639279 40049299 39289341
            38259423 38169486 

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SPC MD 670

MD 0670 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS

MD 0670 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0670
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska and Northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222054Z - 222230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado is possible this afternoon/evening in
southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Several bands of shallow convection have developed in
the proximity of the upper low/surface MCV in northern Kansas.
Low-level streamwise vorticity is enhanced in this region with 0-1
SRH around 100 to 150 m2/s2. Low-level flow is mostly veered where
instability has increased to the east of the circulation. However,
there may be some brief overlap between the better instability and
favorable wind profile. The limited moisture/instability will likely
be the limiting factor to a greater threat.

..Bentley.. 05/22/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40329877 40719873 40799807 40759710 40709591 40519567
            40169540 39759538 39609575 39479632 39449684 39669737
            40029768 40149831 40329877 

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SPC MD 593

MD 0593 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183…184… FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA…NORTHERN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS…CENTRAL MISSOURI…AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS

MD 0593 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

Areas affected...northwest Indiana...northern and western
Illinois...central Missouri...and southeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 183...184...

Valid 150606Z - 150800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 183, 184
continues.

SUMMARY...Local risk for severe storms continues, with greatest
short-term risk likely to exist over central Missouri over the next
1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of severe storms
extending from near Chicago southwestward to western Missouri, and
then west-southwestward from there across southeastern Kansas.  The
storms are occurring near/ahead of the surface cold front, aided by
an axis of pre-frontal warm-sector mixed-layer CAPE ranging from
around 500 J/kg in the Chicago area, to 1500 to 2500 J/kg over
southeastern Kansas.

Storms across northern portions of the discussion area -- i.e. in
and near soon-to-expire WW 183 -- should continue to gradually
weaken, as they continue shifting eastward into a more stable/capped
airmass into southern lower Michigan and Indiana.  Meanwhile, storms
farther to the southwest will likely continue for several hours,
aided by low-level warm advection assocaited with a 50 kt
southwesterly low-level jet ahead of the surface front.

The greatest short-term severe risk -- in the form of damaging winds
-- appears likely to exist across central Missouri.  Storms appear
likely to evolve into a bowing band, and shift across central
Missouri through an amply unstable (1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer
CAPE) environment -- resulting in a more focused corridor for
damaging-wind potential.  As storms approach eastern portions of WW
184 over the next 1-2 hours, local areal WW extensions, or a new
severe thunderstorm watch, may be required.

..Goss.. 05/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...
TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   41488676 40868725 39818854 38259017 37489247 36969478
            37079736 37609745 38229561 38339469 39639316 40569068
            41069050 41488676 

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SPC MD 592

MD 0592 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182… FOR EASTERN KANSAS…WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

MD 0592 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Western and Northern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...

Valid 150358Z - 150600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across parts of
eastern Kansas and western to northern Missouri over the next few
hours. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be the primary
threats. Weather watch issuance is being considered to the east of
WW 182.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1005 mb low across
southeast Kansas with a surface trough extending northeastward from
the low into northeast Kansas and north-central Missouri. A large
MCS is located along the surface trough with several organized line
segments ongoing. The airmass ahead of the surface trough is moist
with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. This is contributing to
moderate instability with MLCAPE estimated in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg
range. In addition, the Topeka WSR-88D VWP shows moderate deep-layer
shear with speed shear in the mid-levels and directional shear in
the boundary layer. The WSR-88D VWP at Kansas City has less
deep-layer shear but also has strong directional shear in the
boundary layer. This wind profile will be favorable for continued
multicell line segment formation. The more intense line segments
should be able to produce damaging wind gusts and hail. As
instability slowly decreases across the region in the overnight
period, the severe threat should become more isolated. But for parts
of the line that remain severe, a weather watch is being considered.

..Broyles.. 05/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39519452 37989651 37219610 37479471 38089352 39149140
            39939101 40389126 40589192 39979361 39519452 

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SPC MD 588

MD 0588 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182… FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS…WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI…FAR SOUTHERN IOWA

MD 0588 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0588
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0822 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Western and Northern
Missouri...Far Southern Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...

Valid 150122Z - 150315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue for several more hours
across northeast Kansas, northern Missouri and far southern Iowa.
The storms will gradually move eastward and should impact the
eastern part of WW 182.

DISCUSSION...An MCS is ongoing along a pre-frontal surface trough
from southern Iowa southwestward to northeast Kansas. The RAP is
analyzing moderate instabity from near the surface trough eastward
across much of eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri.
Three clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing in the
vicinity of WW 182. The first is in northwest Missouri near the axis
of a 700 mb jet. This area is slightly less unstable but more
strongly sheared. Storm mode has mostly been linear suggesting a
wind damage and hail threat will continue across northwest Missouri.

The second area of strong to severe thunderstorms is located in
central to northeast Kansas where MLCAPE is higher (MLPCAPE of 2500
to 3500 J/kg). This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and
moderate deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells with
large hail. As cells merge and a line organizes over the next few
hours, the wind damage threat is expected to increase. This activity
should move eastward across the remainder of northeast Kansas and
may affect parts of far western Missouri later this evening. 

The third area of strong to severe thunderstorms is located in
northeast Missouri near a maxima in instability (MLCAPE near 2500
J/kg). This area has slightly less deep-layer shear than further to
the north suggesting the storms will remain mostly unorganized. A
wind damage and hail threat may exist with the stronger cores.

..Broyles.. 05/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   40879259 40579185 40069205 39169333 37899508 37969612
            38449713 38839709 39369611 39969506 40929321 40879259 

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SPC MD 586

MD 0586 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182… FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS…NORTHWEST MISSOURI…SOUTHERN IOWA

MD 0586 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Areas affected...Eastern and Southern Kansas...Northwest
Missouri...Southern Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...

Valid 142301Z - 150100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and wind damage will likely
increase over the next couple of hours from northwest Missouri
southwestward into northeast Kansas. A brief tornado or two can not
be ruled out. An isolated and more conditional severe threat may
also develop to the southwest of WW 182.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front from
southwest Iowa extending southwestward into central Kansas. A moist
airmass is present ahead of the front with surface dewpoints
generally in the mid 60s F. A surface trough is located ahead of the
front from southern Iowa into northeast Kansas, along which strong
thunderstorms are developing at this time. The RAP is analyzing a
corridor of moderate to strong instability along the surface trough
with MLCAPE generally in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The strongest
deep-layer shear is analyzed across far northwest Missouri and
southern Iowa where supercells with large hail will be possible. A
brief tornado could occur in this area especially as low-level shear
gradually increases this evening. Further to the southwest into
eastern Kansas, deep-layer shear is not quite as strong. However,
MLCAPE is estimated in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range. This combined
with steepening low-level lapse rates will make wind damage a
possibility as a broken line of storms develops along the surface
trough over the next few hours. Large hail will be possible with the
more intense cores.

Southwest of WW 182, very strong instabiity is analyzed with MLCAPE
in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. The RAP has 0-6 km shear in the 30
to 40 kt range and the Wichita WSR-88D VWP shows veering winds with
height in the lowest 3 km AGL. If low-level convergence can become
strong enough, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could develop
in southern Kansas. The environment would support large hail and
wind damage. This severe potential is conditional upon cell
initiation.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39389578 38699651 37979712 37659675 37649594 38709494
            40789268 41069295 41139408 40369492 39389578 

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SPC MD 584

MD 0584 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KS…NORTHERN MO AND FAR SOUTHERN IA

MD 0584 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Areas affected...northeast KS...northern MO and far southern IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 142055Z - 142230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail are expected to develop in the next couple hours. A watch
will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A broad CU field is slowly increasing in vertical
development ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary extending from a
surface low over central KS northeastward through southern IA.
Modified 19z RAP soundings indicate MLCIN has likely eroded as area
temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s and low 80s F. Mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints reside across the discussion area with
midlevel lapse rates around 7-8 C/km, resulting in MLCAPE around
1500-2500 J/kg. Water vapor imagery, in conjunction with an 18z RAOB
from TOP and forecast soundings, indicate some midlevel subsidence
could be deterring convective initiation in the short-term,
especially given modest forcing across the region. 

Nevertheless, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next
couple of hours just ahead of the surface boundary. Recent VWP data
from both EAX and DMX indicate a belt of stronger midlevel
southwesterly flow over the area, with effective shear around 25-40
kt. This should be sufficient to maintain organized clusters of
storms, capable of strong gusts and hail initially. Low level shear
is rather weak, but any cell along the frontal boundary will
experience enhanced SRH and a tornado or two can not be ruled out. 
A low level jet is expected to increase during the evening, and some
upscale growth is expected. Should an organized line of storms
develop, this could increase the risk for damaging gusts as
convection shifts east/southeast across eastern KS and MO. Trends
are being monitored and a watch will likely be needed by late this
afternoon.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38719664 39319671 39999626 40659516 41079412 41199343
            41279285 41289215 41029176 40529159 40119160 39899193
            39489302 38889500 38499628 38719664 

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