SPC MD 569

MD 0569 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 132… FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA…CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS…NORTHWEST MISSOURI…SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

MD 0569 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Areas affected...Southwest Iowa...Central and Northeast
Kansas...Northwest Missouri...Southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132...

Valid 292204Z - 300000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms near the eastern periphery of WW 132 will pose a
severe wind and hail threat, but will likely decrease in intensity
as they move east. Storms will move into WW 132 from the west later
this evening. In the short term, southwestern counties will have a
tornado threat with ongoing supercells near Dodge City, KS. As the
evening progresses, storms will continue east and bring with them a
greater risk for severe wind gusts and hail.

DISCUSSION...Storms that fired along an outflow boundary in eastern
Kansas continue near the eastern boundary of WW 132. A storm east of
Wichita has shown a persistent MRMS MESH core of 1 inch. KICT VAD
profile shows 0-6 km shear values of 45-50 kts and RAP analysis
shows MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Shear and instability
generally decrease from west to east within the discussion area so
the expectation is that the most eastern storms will decrease in
intensity as they progress east. The main threat will be from storms
approaching from the west. Currently, supercell storms near DDC are
ongoing and have exhibited strong rotation on radar. The western
storms are expected to congeal into a line with time. Severe wind
gusts and hail will the the primary threats through the evening.

..Wendt.. 05/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   41149583 41089461 40739466 39889516 39019575 38359597
            37989648 37899766 37709873 37589958 37510026 37880029
            38559914 38659896 38909852 39729793 40629708 41189631
            41149583 

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SPC MD 566

MD 0566 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST KS TO SOUTHWEST MO

MD 0566 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0566
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Areas affected...Northeast KS to Southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 291901Z - 292030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Hail will accompany thunderstorms from northeast KS into
southwest MO.

DISCUSSION...Strongly diffluent high-level flow is noted across the
eastern Plains this afternoon ahead of a strong short-wave trough
ejecting into central KS. Large-scale forcing and favorable venting
aloft favor upscale growth in convection into the evening hours.
Continued surface heating will further destabilize this corridor and
robust thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over the
next few hours. Hail may be common with the strongest storms.

..Darrow/Hart.. 05/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38609721 40129680 41289640 41309502 39359525 38269611
            38609721 

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SPC MD 566

MD 0566 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST KS TO SOUTHWEST MO

MD 0566 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0566
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Areas affected...Northeast KS to Southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 291901Z - 292030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Hail will accompany thunderstorms from northeast KS into
southwest MO.

DISCUSSION...Strongly diffluent high-level flow is noted across the
eastern Plains this afternoon ahead of a strong short-wave trough
ejecting into central KS. Large-scale forcing and favorable venting
aloft favor upscale growth in convection into the evening hours.
Continued surface heating will further destabilize this corridor and
robust thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over the
next few hours. Hail may be common with the strongest storms.

..Darrow/Hart.. 05/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38609721 40129680 41289640 41309502 39359525 38269611
            38609721 

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SPC MD 530

MD 0530 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS…NORTHERN MISSOURI…WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS

MD 0530 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0530
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...northern Missouri...west-central
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 261759Z - 262030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered storms are expected to form by
20-21Z from northeast Kansas into west-central Illinois.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating combined with the presence of cool
temperatures aloft is leading to strengthening instability profiles,
with MUCAPE to around 3000 J/kg from KS across northern MO. A weak
surface trough should provide sufficient convergence when combined
with the lack of CIN later this afternoon to produce isolated to
scattered strong storms. Wind profiles will remain weak, and likely
favor east-southeastward moving cells capable of hail with eventual
outflows producing strong wind gusts. CAM solutions indicate
northeast KS into northwest MO as a favored area, with a secondary
area of development across west-central IL.

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39519029 39269106 38949315 38669469 38779560 39619583
            40189353 40579165 40849060 40829010 40468979 40078979
            39519029 

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SPC MD 471

MD 0471 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

MD 0471 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Areas affected...eastern Kansas/western and central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 200542Z - 200815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Persistent thunderstorms are expected overnight, possible
in several different episodes.  Local/large hail is expected with
the strongest cells over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a small cluster of convection
over extreme southeast Kansas -- moving eastward toward central
Missouri, with more widespread/weaker convection developing across a
larger portion of eastern Kansas and into western and central
Missouri.  The convection is slightly elevated, likely increasing in
response to a moderate south-southwesterly low-level jet and
associated warm advection/isentropic ascent.  

While mid-level westerly flow remains rather modest (around 30 kt),
very steep lapse rates (as observed by the evening SGF RAOB) are
contributing to moderate elevated instability (on the order of 2500
J/kg).  Thus, while shear would suggest only weakly rotating storms,
the amount of available instability suggests continued/persistent
storms with the strongest cells capable of producing hail generally
in the 1" to 1.75" range over the next several hours.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37019505 37409537 38219517 38829463 39239348 38959215
            38509164 37739181 36969288 36779438 37019505 

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SPC MD 468

MD 0468 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 109… FOR PART OF EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO

MD 0468 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0468
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Areas affected...Part of eastern KS and western MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 109...

Valid 200041Z - 200215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 109
continues.

SUMMARY...A stabilizing environment across the remaining portion of
WW 109 (south of I-70) should result in additional counties being
canceled from the watch or an overall early cancellation of the rest
of WW 109 are possible.

DISCUSSION...An extensive cirrus shield that expanded poleward from
the complex of storms that spread from southeast KS into southwest
and central MO late afternoon and early evening has stabilized much
of the environment across WW 109.  Although pockets of instability
remain near the cold front, which extended from eastern IA through
northwest MO and northeast KS to northwest OK, increasing
surface-based inhibition should continue to limit the development of
strong updrafts.  Meanwhile, a cluster of storms located over
central MO at 0030Z will advance further away from the southeast
portion of WW 109, precluding a severe-weather threat in this part
of the watch.

..Peters.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38239309 37949541 38299635 38709614 38819545 38919301
            38239309 

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SPC MD 465

MD 0465 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108… FOR WEST AND NORTHWEST TX…WESTERN AND NORTHERN OK…SOUTHEAST KS…AND SOUTHWEST MO

MD 0465 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Areas affected...West and northwest TX...western and northern
OK...southeast KS...and southwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108...

Valid 192311Z - 200115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108
continues.

SUMMARY...Local WFO extensions in area are possible across parts of
south-central MO and in west TX.  Two areas of strong to severe
storms persist across the southern part of WW 108 (in northwest TX
to southwest OK) and northeast OK through southeast KS and southwest
MO.  Large hail and damaging winds should be the primary threats in
the short term, though a tornado cannot be ruled out in either of
these portions of the watch.

DISCUSSION......Northwest TX to south-central OK...
Water vapor imagery showed a progressive shortwave trough moving
through much of western TX late this afternoon.  Forcing for ascent
with this trough is aiding in continued thunderstorm development
near and north of a boundary extending from King County TX to
Cochran County TX.  Storm mergers across Cottle and Childress
counties TX appear to have formed into a cluster or attempts at
being linear.  All of these storms in northwest TX are located
within the strongest corridor of instability (MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg)
and the southern extent of effective bulk shear favorable for
supercells.  22Z mesoanalysis showed a boundary extending from
Cottle and Foard counties TX into south-central OK (north of
KSPS-KADM).  Given the current eastward movement of the
Cottle/Childress counties cluster and new rapid storm development in
Foard County TX, these storms should track to the east-northeast
into far southwest to south-central OK this evening. 

...West TX...
Additional sustained updrafts per radar imagery were forming to the
south-southwest between KLBB and KMAF in vicinity of the dryline. 
Trends in vertical wind profiles indicated backing of low-midlevel
winds (surface to 700-mb winds) resulting in an increase of surface
convergence along the dryline and providing some strengthening of
effective bulk shear to support storm organization.  Therefore, the
CAPE/shear parameter space is becoming more conducive to support
sustained updrafts and subsequent sever storm threat.  Counties in
WFO LUB area may need to be added to WW 108.

...Southwest to south-central MO...
A forward propagating MCS moving east at 40 kt is posing a
severe-weather threat for damaging winds across more of southern MO,
resulting in an areal extension of WW 108.  This bow may begin to
track to the east-southeast, near and north of a west-northwest to
east-southeast oriented outflow boundary located across southern MO,
where the strongest instability is located.

..Peters.. 05/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...SJT...LUB...
AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   32660267 34130137 34460018 36069946 36509895 37089812
            37059659 38049538 38209389 38329264 38129190 37319174
            36639230 36489475 36429554 35959661 35319752 34749783
            34209816 33859851 33469929 32910088 32660267 

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