SPC MD 1021

MD 1021 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL MO

MD 1021 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS and far west-central
MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308...

Valid 270822Z - 270915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe wind threat continues in the
short term, but the overall severe risk should gradually diminish
early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Consolidation of multiple clusters has occurred over
the past couple of hours across KS and into the Kansas City metro.
Overall radar presentation has recently become less organized as
convective inhibition continues to increase along/south of ongoing
storms. Even so, the more organized/strongest segment of the cluster
is now moving across the Kansas City metro, with mainly an isolated
strong to damaging wind threat. As the 35-45 kt southwesterly
low-level jet over KS gradually weakens through the remainder of the
early morning, the expectation is for a slow weakening trend to
ongoing storms within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308. Accordingly, a
downstream/replacement watch for east-central KS into far
west-central MO is not anticipated at this time.

..Gleason.. 06/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38879841 39339736 39219544 39409419 38789352 38479399
            38329504 38229642 38199841 38879841 

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SPC MD 1019

MD 1019 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308… FOR PORTIONS OF KS…SOUTHERN NE…EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN IA…AND NORTHERN MO

MD 1019 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Areas affected...Portions of KS...southern NE...extreme southwestern
IA...and northern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308...

Valid 270628Z - 270830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308
continues.

SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms will continue to pose both a
large hail and severe wind threat for at least the next couple of
hours.

DISCUSSION...An eastward-moving line of storms across western KS
continues to produce strong to severe wind gusts early this morning.
A measured gust to 58 kt (67 mph) recently occurred in Garden City
KS with outflow that has surged well ahead of this ongoing
convection. A separate cluster with embedded supercells on its
northern flank is occurring across north-central KS and far
south-central NE. Isolated large hail will be possible with any
storm that can remain semi-discrete given the steep mid-level lapse
rates that are present over the central Plains (reference 00Z DDC
and OAX soundings).

Current expectations are for both clusters in KS to eventually merge
and develop south-southeastward into central/eastern KS over the
next couple of hours. This region still has the strongest
instability present (MUCAPE 2000-3000+ J/kg) per recent
mesoanalysis, and a 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet over
the southern/central Plains will likely support continued storm
intensity and organization early this morning. Strong to severe wind
gusts should become the main threat with time as storm mode becomes
increasingly linear.

Additional, more widely spaced, clusters in far southeastern NE and
northwestern/north-central MO should also pose an isolated large
hail and wind threat in the short term. These areas are displaced
slightly to the east of the low-level jet axis, which may impact
their intensity/longevity to some degree. Still, one of these
clusters may approach the Kansas City metro in the next 1-2 hours,
where a favorable thermodynamic environment is present to support
severe/damaging winds.

As convection gradually approaches the southern bounds of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 308 in the next couple of hours, local extensions
in area or a new watch may need to be considered into parts of
southern KS and perhaps west-central MO.

..Gleason.. 06/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37880145 39010050 40199993 40509895 40829627 40799570
            40269495 40609249 39329239 38409626 37849851 37730064
            37880145 

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SPC MD 1017

MD 1017 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309… FOR KANSAS…SOUTHERN NEBRASKA…SOUTHERN IOWA…NORTHWEST MISSOURI

MD 1017 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1041 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

Areas affected...Kansas...Southern Nebraska...Southern
Iowa...Northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309...

Valid 270341Z - 270545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across ww309.

DISCUSSION...LLJ is beginning to strengthen across the TX Panhandle
into western KS where it is forecast to approach 40kt over the next
few hours. This appears to be partly responsible for recent increase
in convection along/just north of the boundary near HLC.
Additionally, thunderstorm cluster east of CNK is intensifying with
a substantial hail signature noted with this slow-moving convection.
Over the next few hours an extensive, elongated corridor of
thunderstorms should evolve north of I-70 across KS, extending into
northern MO. Latest radar data suggests an MCV is beginning to
evolve with the High Plains convection near IML and this should
encourage downstream storms north of the boundary as well. Overall,
a slowly sagging band of storms should drop south with time if a
sufficient cold pool develops.

..Darrow.. 06/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40260083 40419781 40829593 41099249 40289257 39089659
            38789958 37770191 40260083 

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SPC MD 1012

MD 1012 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS…SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…SOUTHWEST IOWA…NORTHWEST MISSOURI

MD 1012 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

Areas affected...North-Central/Northeast Kansas...Southeast
Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 262330Z - 270100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted if
thunderstorms develop over the next 1-2 hours. Hail/wind are the
main threats.

DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave ridging, in the wake of northern IL
MCS, is expected to shift east across the mid-MO Valley over the
next few hours. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests this is
underway, and brief subsidence will wane. This should become more
supportive for thunderstorm development over the next few hours.

Latest vis satellite imagery exhibits a substantial cu field from
north-central KS, arcing into southwest IA. Within this field,
several deeper towers are beginning to generate anvils along with a
few showers. Sustained low-level warm advection should aid
convective development over the next few hours, especially as LLJ
strengthens after sunset. CAMs support a considerable increase along
this corridor, just south of the wind shift, and this lends
confidence that a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed by 01z.

..Darrow/Edwards.. 06/26/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39739781 40379727 41139579 41049424 40199459 38709652
            38999762 39739781 

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SPC MD 988

MD 0988 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS

MD 0988 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0988
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

Areas affected...Central/Southern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 242026Z - 242230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are developing in an environment supportive of
large hail and strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a weak/diffuse boundary
from northeast CO southeastward across central KS and into far
west-central MO. This boundary is defined primarily by a modest wind
shift. A cumulus field continues to build along and south of the
boundary and convective initiation may be underway with the
development of a deep updraft about 20 miles southwest of RSL.
Environment over the area is characterized by MLCAPE around 1500
J/kg and vertically veering wind profiles with 0-6 km vertical shear
from 30 to 40 kt. These conditions are favorable for storms capable
of large hail and strong downbursts. Overall storm coverage remains
questionable given the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent and
presence of weak height rises. Convective trends will be monitored
closely and a watch may be needed if sufficient storm coverage
appears likely.

..Mosier/Dial.. 06/24/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39290140 38829962 38599653 37509655 37249845 37880159
            39290140 

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SPC MD 974

MD 0974 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…NORTHEAST KANSAS…EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI

MD 0974 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0974
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

Areas affected...Far southeast Nebraska...northeast Kansas...extreme
northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222340Z - 230145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few more severe wind gusts/hail are possible over the
next few hours of the diurnal heating cycle. The greatest chance for
severe appears to be associated with a small storm cluster entering
Pawnee County, NE. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a
WW issuance is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized MCS is moving across far southeast
NE and is crossing the KS border. One particular linear cluster
embedded in the MCS has a history of producing up to 60 mph wind
gusts and 1.5 inch hail over the past couple of hours. This smaller
linear segment has recently shown bowing structure, with the
immediate downstream environment characterized by 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
and 35 knots of effective bulk shear, supporting continued
organization of the small bow. 

However, with the onset of nocturnal cooling in the next couple of
hours, instability is expected to wane, with an overall weakening
trend in convection expected, as also depicted by some of the latest
high-resolution model guidance. Given the shorter duration and
marginal magnitude of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not
anticipated.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/22/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40039775 40519769 40679666 40909607 40559563 40379528
            39759471 39299461 38899490 38649566 38609629 39029703
            39679762 40039775 

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SPC MD 954

MD 0954 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

MD 0954 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0954
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Areas affected...western South Dakota and other portions of the
northern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 211905Z - 212130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
western South Dakota and surrounding areas this afternoon. As these
storms move southeast, damaging winds and large hail are possible.
Given the likely marginal and isolated nature of the severe threat,
a watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...West-northwest upper-level flow is overspread the
northern Rockies and Plains with multiple low-amplitude shortwave
troughs embedded within it per water vapor imagery. Sporadic
lightning has been observed across portions of eastern Idaho and
northern Wyoming this morning into early afternoon with a few
observed lightning flashes in western South Dakota during the last
hour with struggling convection. Given the moisture and forcing for
ascent aloft, cloud cover has mitigated insolation across much of
the northern high Plains/vicinity. This along with diffuse surface
convergence have delayed and limited convective initiation. However,
deeper cumulus clouds and higher cloud tops have been observed
recently indicating potential destabilization. 

As surface temperatures warm into the 70s to low 80s F storm
coverage will likely increase. Storms are expected to develop during
the afternoon and into the evening and move generally to the
southeast across the area. The overall storm environment represents
a marginally severe threat for large hail and damaging winds with
coverage of severe storms likely relatively limited.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/21/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON   42150121 42760445 44790559 45470535 46490424 46320300
            45510075 44910012 43970021 42150121 

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SPC MD 953

MD 0953 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS

MD 0953 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0953
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Areas affected...Portions of western and central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 211815Z - 212015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase rapidly across parts of
western into central KS over the next couple of hours. One or more
watches will be needed by 2-3 pm CDT. Large to very large hail,
widespread damaging winds, and a tornado are all possible.

DISCUSSION...A very moist and unstable airmass is evolving early
this afternoon across parts of western into central KS ahead of
dryline and surface front. A couple of updrafts have already been
noted along the boundary in Wallace County in northwest KS. To the
east across north-central KS, strong to occasionally severe storms
have continues through the morning and into this afternoon in a
low-level confluence zone. Additional CU development has been noted
along the associated outflow boundary. As inhibition continues to
erode, additional thunderstorm development could zipper westward
along that boundary over the next couple of hours. Forecast guidance
has done a poor job of handling these storms, CAMs included, and
some uncertainty exists with regards to convective evolution across
that area. 

To the southwest, moisture continues to increase, with widespread
upper 60s to low 70s F noted in 17z obs. While a broader CU field
has yet to develop across western KS, there are some signs of
weakening inhibition and increasing ascent spreading over the region
via increasing mid/upper level cloudiness streaming eastward from CO
and modified forecast soundings showing a nearly-uncapped
environment in the next hour. As such, storms are expected to become
more widespread in the next 1-2 hours near the surface
boundary/dryline across western KS. MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg in
the presence of 30-45 kt effective shear will result in robust,
organized updrafts and supercell structures. A plume of very steep
midlevel lapse rates around 8 C/km and lengthened hodographs above
700 mb will support large to very large hail. Additionally, steep
low level lapse rates and modest low level shear will support strong
downdrafts and damaging winds. While convection may initially be
semi-discrete, upward development into one or more bowing segments
is expected as storm outflows/mergers occur in conjunction with cold
pool development by late afternoon. While storm bases will be a bit
high, mean mixing ratios around 14-15 g/kg and increasing effective
SRH values across southwest KS could support a tornado or two in any
more discrete storms.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/21/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39330134 39740076 39990040 40009971 40039867 39959796
            39309767 38499789 37499876 37169950 37120014 37190073
            37360119 37890170 38390186 38890182 39330134 

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2020

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the south-central
Great Plains this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Southwest Kansas
  Northwest Oklahoma

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A couple of tornadoes
  Widespread large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Numerous severe storms are expected across the Plains,
  especially across southern/eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and
  portions of Kansas and Oklahoma late this afternoon and tonight.
  Very large hail, intense damaging wind gusts, and a few
  tornadoes will be possible.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Guyer.. 06/21/2020

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SPC MD 935

MD 0935 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI

MD 0935 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0935
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

Areas affected...northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska into
parts of Iowa and northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 182330Z - 190130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few occasionally stronger storms within the discussion
area will be capable of producing large hail and locally
gusty/damaging winds.  Risk may remain temporally and areally
limited so as to preclude the need for WW issuance, but we will
continue to monitor convective evolution.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an active zone of convection
from southern Minnesota south-southwestward to
north-central/northeastern Kansas, along and ahead of the slowly
advancing surface front.

The environment ahead of the front is characterized by low to mid
60s surface dewpoints, which combined with daytime heating is
yielding mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1500 to 2000 J/kg within
the discussion area.  This is fueling persistent storm development
-- particularly from southeast Nebraska southwestward to
Lincoln/Mitchell Counties in Kansas.

Despite ample CAPE for robust updrafts, the deep-layer wind remains
marginal for a more substantial severe event.  Though ample veering
with height -- from southerly to westerly through mid levels -- is
yielding enough shear for multicell organization and some
weak/transient updraft rotation, mid-level flow of 20 to 25 kt over
Nebraska/Iowa, and weakening with southward extent, is observed. 
This suggests that the overall degree of risk will remain limited --
with maximum hail size in the 1" to 1.75" range, and severe-caliber
wind gusts very local and brief.  While the evolution of a low-level
jet across this region over the next few hours will likely sustain
convection, the most likely scenario appears that a
southeastward-moving outflow will evolve, with storm redevelopment
favored on the cool side of the outflow.  The anafrontal/elevated
nature of this convection -- particularly as the boundary layer
cools -- likely precludes appreciable increase in wind risk, with
marginal hail and locally heavy rainfall likely to be the most
dominant risks after dark.

..Goss/Thompson.. 06/18/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   38499809 39359810 40659669 41739585 41939505 42059376
            41669265 40439326 39039491 38459662 38499809 

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