SPC Nov 5, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two will be possible from a portion of the Southeast
States to the Middle Atlantic region.

...A portion of the Southeast States into Middle Atlantic region...

Surface low will occlude over the Great Lakes Tuesday morning in
association with a northeast-ejecting shortwave trough. Trailing
front will move off the Middle Atlantic seaboard by evening, but
southwest extension of this boundary will stall from southern
portions of the Gulf Coast States into TX. 

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along and just ahead of a
cold front from the OH Valley into a part of the Gulf Coast states
with a modest risk for isolated damaging wind. This activity may
weaken as it crosses the Appalachians due to the very marginal
thermodynamic environment. A strong southerly low-level jet will
transport low-mid 60s F dewpoints into the Middle Atlantic region
contributing to potential for surface-based destabilization with
400-800 J/kg MLCAPE. Redevelopment of low-topped convection with
embedded thunderstorms may occur, especially from central/eastern
Carolinas to VA and eastern PA as the surface layer moistens and
destabilizes during the day. The convection will be embedded within
a strong kinematic environment with wind profiles supportive of
updraft rotation and a few bowing segments. Tendency for the deeper
forcing to shift north, away from the more unstable portion of the
warm sector and the overall weak thermodynamic environment remain
limiting factors, but feel threat is sufficient to maintain the
slight risk for this update.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   5%     - Slight
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Dial.. 11/05/2018

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SPC Nov 4, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms with locally strong wind gusts and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible from a portion of the
Southeast States to the Middle Atlantic region.

...A portion of the Southeast States to Middle Atlantic...

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along and just ahead of a
cold front from the OH Valley into the Gulf Coast states with an
ongoing modest risk for isolated damaging wind. Surface low will
shift from the OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes as the attendant
shortwave trough advances northeast. Some of the thunderstorms may
weaken/dissipate as they cross the Appalachians. Redevelopment may
occur, especially from the central/eastern Carolinas into the
eastern Middle Atlantic during the afternoon where greater
destabilization is possible in association with northward advection
of richer low-level moisture. The kinematic environment will support
organized convection along/ahead of the cold front. However,
widespread clouds and weak instability will probably serve as
overall limiting factors for a more robust severe threat.

..Dial.. 11/04/2018

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2018

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley this evening and overnight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Louisiana
  Southern and Central Mississippi
  East Texas

* HAZARDS...
  A few intense tornadoes
  Scattered damaging winds
  Isolated large hail

* SUMMARY...
  The greatest risk for severe thunderstorms, capable of producing
  damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes, exists from southeast Texas
  to the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight.

Preparedness actions...

Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they 
are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to
NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and
warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable
for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado
warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety,
ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

&&

..Gleason.. 10/31/2018

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Freeze Warning issued October 15 at 11:23PM CDT until October 16 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS

…FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY… * TEMPERATURE…Temperatures will drop into the mid 20s to near 30 degrees late tonight into Tuesday morning. The coldest readings will be in low-lying locations such as river valleys. * IMPACTS…Subfreezing temperatures will end the growing season and kill any unprotected outdoor decorative plants.