SPC MD 1529


MD 1529 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 05 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southwest/central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 060044Z - 060215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will continue to pose a primary
threat of large hail this evening, although strong gusty winds will
be possible too. Still, the severe threat is not expected to be
organized enough to necessitate a watch.

DISCUSSION...Aided by enhanced convergence/isentropic ascent along a
composite cold front/outflow boundary, a cluster of strong to severe
storms has expanded across central Kansas this evening. As the
low-level jet further intensifies this evening, a few more cells may
develop to the southwest, generally in the direction of Dodge City. 

The 00Z DDC sounding sampled around 50 kt of west/southwest 500mb
flow, which is supporting some initial supercellular evolution.
Combined with MLCAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg, instances of large hail
appear possible. However, south/southeastward advance of the front,
combined with some dry air and nocturnal inhibition slowing parcel
ascent slightly, should lead to cells becoming progressively
elevated atop the frontal surface. Therefore, the overall severe
threat should be limited enough to preclude watch issuance.

..Picca/Thompson.. 10/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37839907 37729982 37740033 37880034 38050014 38319984
            38789927 39499852 39709812 39739783 39719731 39529701
            39189688 38269760 37839907 

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SPC MD 1526


MD 1526 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Fri Oct 05 2018

Areas affected...northeast Kansas...southeast Nebraska...northern
Missouri...and southern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051939Z - 052215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will increase
gradually through the afternoon and evening. The primary threat will
be hail, but gusty winds cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A surface warm front across central/northern Kansas and
central Missouri will continue to lift northward through the
afternoon before stalling and returning southward as a cold front
overnight. Although the airmass should remain capped to the south of
the front, continued isentropic ascent to the north of the front
will allow for a gradual increase in favorable conditions for strong
to marginally severe thunderstorms. 

Presently, thunderstorms are ongoing across northeast Kansas,
southeast Nebraska, and southern Iowa. These thunderstorms appear to
be rooted somewhere between 850-700 millibars, along or just north
of the frontal surface. Continued south-southwesterly flow through
this layer will continue to tap into a CAPE reservoir across
southern Kansas, that is being sustained by unseasonably warm
surface temperatures (in the upper-80s) and lower-tropospheric
moisture (dewpoints in the upper-60s to low-70s). 

Through this afternoon, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is a
little bit uncertain given the continued weakening/veering low-level
jet. However, belief is that enough isentropic ascent will occur to
result in at least isolated convection, which would be capable of
hail. Later this evening, with the diurnally augmented increase in
the low-level jet, and increasing deep-layer ascent stemming from
the western United States trough, confidence is higher in the
coverage of thunderstorms -- some possibly severe. The primary
threat this evening should still be hail, but given the increase in
the low-level jet and a surface front in the vicinity, a brief
tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 10/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39029813 40469703 41609601 42189467 42249261 41669107
            40399122 39319369 38219573 38219808 39029813 

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SPC MD 1520


MD 1520 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Wed Oct 03 2018

Areas affected...much of central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 032312Z - 040145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop this
evening, and a few may become marginally severe with a hail or wind

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows TCU developing near a surface
trough from southwest KS into northwest MO, ahead of the primary
cold front which is rapidly approaching from the north. MLCAPE of up
to 2000 J/kg has developed from south central KS into IA, and winds
veer with height and may support a few cells capable of hail or
locally damaging wind gusts. 

Storms are first expected to form within the pre-frontal trough
where temperatures are hot, and then may increase in coverage
further as the cold front interacts with the unstable air mass,
especially from northeast KS into northern MO. Any severe threat
will be maximized during the first few hours after development, with
decreasing intensity during the late evening.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37139942 37050142 37140180 37380176 37610149 38000034
            38099994 38269941 38449872 38799818 39239775 39629645
            40349437 40389392 40219380 39739382 39359424 37969683
            37599774 37289880 37139942 

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Wind Advisory issued October 03 at 6:50PM CDT until October 03 at 11:00PM CDT by NWS

…WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING… The National Weather Service in Topeka has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect until 11 PM CDT this evening. * TIMING…Winds will be strong behind the front for a few hours. * WINDS…North winds are expected to gust between 40 and 50 MPH. * IMPACTS…Any light weight objects could be blown around. High

Special Weather Statement issued October 03 at 3:45PM CDT by NWS

…Strong wind gusts this afternoon and evening… Strong southwest winds will continue through the afternoon hours. Sustained winds around 20 to 25 mph with gusts around 40 to 45 mph will be possible, and locally stronger winds cannot be ruled out. Winds are expected to temporarily weaken across the region from mid to late afternoon, before a front and chances for showers