SPC MD 1431

MD 1431 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KS…SOUTHEAST NE

MD 1431 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Southeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 090846Z - 091045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible over southeast NE and
northeast KS during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of multicellular storms, extending from roughly
35 miles east of HSI (in southeast NE) southward to about 20 miles
northeast of HUT (in central KS), has developed and intensified over
the past hour or so. This line developed along the leading edge of
modest low-level jet extending from the TX Panhandle into central
KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting moderate buoyancy and
initially strong updrafts. However, vertical shear is modest and
overall storm organization is weak. That trend is generally expected
to continue, resulting in brief, strong updrafts with little severe
potential. Given the hostile low-level thermodynamic environment and
lack of more favorable vertical shear, these storms will likely
dissipate within the next two hours or so.

..Mosier/Hart.. 08/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39599786 40359804 40839836 41189826 41479739 41039676
            39849673 38239691 38049779 39599786 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2PC4zRl

SPC MD 1430

MD 1430 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 422… FOR SOUTHEAST SD…FAR NORTHEAST NE…FAR SOUTHWEST MN…FAR NORTHWEST IA

MD 1430 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Areas affected...Southeast SD...Far Northeast NE...Far Southwest
MN...Far Northwest IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 422...

Valid 090646Z - 090745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 422
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for strong wind gusts will continue across
southeast SD and far northeast NE, and into far southwest MN and far
northwest IA over the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Organized convective line continues to move
northeastward across southeast SD and adjacent far northeast NE.
Recent storm motion was estimated at 45-47 kt, bringing the line to
the SD/MN/IA border intersection a little after 07Z. Echo tops have
remained fairly consistent over the past hour or so, with the
strongest cores currently arcing from Hutchinson County SD to Boone
County NE. Near-severe gusts of 49 kt and 41 kt were recently
measured at KHON and KYKN, respectively. 

Low-level stability exists downstream, but the organized character
of the convective line (evidenced by the well-defined rear-inflow
jet on radar imagery) and steep mid-level lapse suggest the line
should maintain its intensity for at least the next hour or so. As a
result, the severe wind threat is expected to persist into far
southwest MN and far northwest IA.

..Mosier.. 08/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

LAT...LON   44349979 44739849 44719585 43149556 41959787 43279878
            44349979 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2arIGSp

SPC MD 1345

MD 1345 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN KANSAS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA

MD 1345 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1345
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

Areas affected...Northern kansas southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 261906Z - 262100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong/severe storms with damaging winds and
isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening. A
weather watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon surface analysis showed a slow moving cold
front across much of the central Plains into the Midwest. This front
was associated with a high-latitude shortwave trough ejecting
eastward over the Dakotas. Lift from the shortwave trough is
forecast to glance the frontal zone later this afternoon and
evening. Strong heating along the frontal zone is contributing
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE given dewpoints in the lower 70s F.
Inhibition is beginning to weaken, and recent cumulus development
suggests the atmosphere is continuing to destabilize. Stronger shear
is forecast to remain displaced on the northern side of the
boundary. This should serve to limit the overall organization of
convective elements. However, a couple of severe storms may develop
with a threat for damaging winds and isolated large hail.
Considerable uncertainty exists in the coverage of severe storms. As
a result, a weather watch appears unlikely at this time.

..Lyons/Hart.. 07/26/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38780107 39600096 40479939 40959825 41399709 41629631
            41649540 41189454 40389426 39689493 39219659 38669936
            38559990 38510035 38780107 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1zwQ1nv

SPC MD 1314

MD 1314 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN

MD 1314 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

Areas affected...portions of the western Great Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221833Z - 222030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by the mid
afternoon hours, and will pose an isolated risk for strong downburst
winds and perhaps severe hail.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible and IR imagery across the western
Great Basin show deepening cumulus with cooling cloud top
temperatures developing off of higher terrain across eastern NV as
well as within a broad deformation zone ahead of an approaching
upper-level low off the CA coast. A few transient lightning strikes
have also been noted over the past hour. While sustained convection
has yet to develop, these trends suggest that more robust convective
initiation is probable in the next 1-2 hours. Elevated instability
remains somewhat marginal (widespread MUCAPE values near 500 J/kg),
but low-level lapse rates have already steepened to 8-9 C/km across
a broad region as a result of deep boundary-layer mixing. 

Once convection becomes established, a gradual increase in storm
intensity is expected through the late afternoon hours as continued
boundary-layer warming, coupled with the steep mid-level lapse rates
noted in morning soundings, helps augment instability. Additionally,
the approach of stronger flow aloft associated with the upper-level
wave will help strengthen deep layer shear through the afternoon.
The aforementioned steep low-level lapse rates will support the
potential for sporadic strong to severe downburst winds. A few
instances of severe hail will be possible with any stronger, more
organized storm, but widespread severe convection does not appear
likely and precludes the need for a watch.

..Hart/Moore.. 07/22/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV...MFR...STO...

LAT...LON   39921770 40191866 40302023 40292108 40912140 41472089
            41992003 42311903 42311769 42351689 41731478 40711426
            39041435 39231540 39521662 39921770 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2amcay0

SPC MD 1297

MD 1297 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389…390… FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS

MD 1297 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Areas affected...Western/southern Nebraska and western Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389...390...

Valid 210429Z - 210600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389, 390
continues.

SUMMARY...Overall severe-weather potential continues to diminish
in/near Severe Thunderstorm Watches 389/390, with a lingering risk
mainly across northwest Kansas. Watch 389 will likely expire by/at
05Z.

DISCUSSION...A linearly organized band of storms continues to settle
south-southeastward across northwest Kansas, with the stronger
updrafts embedded within the westernmost portion of the line just
south of I-70 and Goodland/Colby areas as of 1015 pm MDT. Cloud tops
have tended to gradually warm and the advancing cluster should
continue to encounter increasing boundary layer inhibition and
lesser buoyancy with southward extent. Thus, the severe-weather
potential should continue to trend increasingly marginal over the
next 1-2 hours, and an additional Watch issuance or extension is not
expected.

Farther north, additional upscale quasi-linear growth could occur
with multiple clusters ongoing across south-central Nebraska. While
a localized severe thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out,
increasingly stable nocturnally/convectively influenced inflow
should keep the severe potential limited.

..Guyer.. 07/21/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39300187 39610062 40559964 41359958 41989990 41459820
            40519885 39239926 38720144 39300187 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/TOmc0M

SPC MD 1287

MD 1287 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NE…NORTHERN KS

MD 1287 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Areas affected...Central/southern NE...Northern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 200714Z - 200915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms are expected overnight. Localized
severe wind/hail is possible, though the threat appears relatively
limited. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...At 07Z, convection is increasing in coverage across
central NE into northern KS, in advance of a convectively enhanced
shortwave trough moving eastward out of the central High Plains.
While deep-layer shear is generally weak across the region (in the
20-30 kt range), convection is expected to continue increasing in
coverage within a warm-advection regime attendant to the shortwave.
Moderate MUCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) will support a localized hail risk
with the strongest newer updrafts, while continued consolidation of
convection may result in at least temporary bowing structures
capable of locally damaging wind. 

The greatest relative risk will likely be over northern KS and far
southern NE, in closer proximity the primary surface boundary and
somewhat greater elevated buoyancy. The overall threat is expected
to remain too limited for watch issuance.

..Dean/Edwards.. 07/20/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39169930 39279988 39400031 39520044 40440012 40730002
            41079990 41369978 41489957 41699920 41829886 41829824
            41709746 41279695 40839669 40549653 39809618 39519604
            39229643 39149732 39139790 39149881 39169930 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/30r7H7H

SPC MD 1281

MD 1281 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI

MD 1281 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into central and eastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192000Z - 192200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible within the next 1-2
hours. A couple strong to severe storms are possible and may pose a
risk for hail and strong wind.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery shows increasingly agitated cumulus
along a stationary frontal boundary draped across MO and into
northeast KS. The onset of convective initiation may be occurring to
the northeast of the Topeka, KS area, as well as northwest of St.
Louis, MO along this boundary. This suggests that thunderstorm
development is probable within the next one to two hours, and will
become increasingly likely heading into the late afternoon hours as
destabilization continues. These storms will develop within a
moderately unstable air mass, characterized by upwards of 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE. However, deep layer shear is relatively marginal across most
of this region, with slightly more favorable effective bulk shear in
place along the instability gradient across northern MO. Due to the
weak shear fields and the increasing possibility of storm
interactions with time (due to storm motions nearly along the
boundary), storms may struggle to maintain organization long enough
to pose a robust severe threat. Despite this concern, a couple of
strong to severe storms are possible and may pose a threat for
severe hail and strong wind, especially initially before more
widespread convection occurs along the boundary.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39429598 39539489 39549246 39479131 39199043 38739034
            38529104 38349264 38529428 38649541 38899616 39209621
            39429598 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3eD0ZAA

SPC MD 1277

MD 1277 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO

MD 1277 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1277
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Areas affected...East central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191836Z - 192030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong winds and marginally severe hail are
possible with thunderstorms this afternoon. This threat should be
limited in duration and coverage, so a watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour have shown a gradual
strengthening in convection across central CO. IR satellite imagery
supports this trend with cooling cloud top temperatures noted in a
couple of storms. While the thermodynamic environment is favorable
for continued convection (with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE noted in recent
RAP mesoanalysis along and east of the CO Front Range), the shear
regime over the region is very weak and will continue to support
disorganized clusters of storms. However, steep 0-3 km lapse rates
between 8-9 C/km and a nearly 3 km deep dry sub-cloud layer will
support the potential for occasional downburst winds with the
strongest storms. Additionally, marginally severe hail will be
possible with the stronger updraft pulses. The general expectation
is for this activity to gradually increase in coverage as storms
move off the higher terrain and into eastern CO. However, given the
expected short duration of any one storm and isolated nature of the
threat, a watch is not anticipated.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37810465 38170520 38850547 39690560 40230525 40510460
            40540376 39980294 38930271 37870313 37790397 37810465 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2ZJUCXX

SPC MD 1269

MD 1269 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

MD 1269 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

Areas affected...North Central/Northeast Kansas and South Central
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 190249Z - 190415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Cluster of storms may continue tracking into northeast
Kansas over the next few hours, with a continued risk for damaging
wind gusts. Watch issuance remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a cluster of storms has formed,
with the strongest cells located in north-central Kansas and a
trailing line of convection into southwest Kansas that has recently
expanded in coverage. The strongest storms have produced measured
wind gusts of 60-70 mph. This line of storms is moving into an
instability axis that increases with eastward extent, ranging from
3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE, as well as increasing CINH. Shear remains
rather weak over the region, with perhaps a subtle improvement with
time as the upper-level trough located over the northern Plains
continues to progress southward.

There is considerable uncertainty in the short term evolution of
these storms, given poor analysis/representation in the latest
convection-allowing guidance. Given the expansive coverage of
convection, it seems plausible for these storms to continue until at
least 06z-07z and track along/near the northern tier of counties in
Kansas, following the axis of instability within generally westerly
flow aloft. Should this occur, these storms will continue to pose a
risk for a few damaging wind gusts over the next few hours. However,
increasing convective inhibition and outflow that is now surging
ahead of the convection (per KUEX trends) may limit the overall
severe threat. Convective trends will continue to be monitored,
however, watch issuance remains unlikely.

..Karstens/Bunting.. 07/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38360009 38940011 39489947 40019942 40329866 39999623
            39209600 38519695 38360009 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1t3B7nW

SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2020

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains
this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Eastern North Dakota
  Northwestern Minnesota

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A couple of tornadoes
  Isolated large hail up to baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
  northern Plains into the Upper Midwest Friday afternoon into
  early Saturday morning. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a
  few tornadoes will be possible.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Edwards.. 07/17/2020

$$

Read more

from SPC Convective Outlooks https://bit.ly/1Mw5lDA