SPC MD 934

MD 0934 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN IOWA…SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA…AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS

MD 0934 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0934
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

Areas affected...western Iowa...southern/southeastern Nebraska...and
north-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 182048Z - 182245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across the discussion area may pose a
wind/hail threat through the evening.  This threat should be too
isolated to necessitate a WW issuance, however.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has continued to deepen over the
past hour or so - particularly from southeastern Nebraska to western
Iowa along and ahead of a strong front entering the region.  The
storms are in an environment characterized by moderate to strong
instability (exceeding 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), but marginal deep shear
with less than 30 knots of flow throughout the lower troposphere
near ongoing convection.  The result should be mostly
outflow-dominant storms with occasional damaging wind gusts and hail
especially given steep low-level lapse rates near the pre-convective
airmass.  

The expectation is that ongoing convection across southeastern
Nebraska and western Iowa will continue to drift northward and pose
an isolated severe risk before eventually being undercut by the
advancing cold front to the west.  Additional storms may also form
southwestward across north-central Kansas and vicinity where
towering cumulus are now present.  The limited nature of the threat
likely precludes a WW issuance, however.

..Cook/Guyer.. 06/18/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   42239481 42069628 40909761 39699878 38929939 38309919
            38319813 39689639 41069478 41499418 42039412 42239481 

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2020

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Midwest and Great
Lakes later today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Lower Michigan
  Northern Ohio
  Northeast Indiana

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A couple of tornadoes
  Isolated large hail

* SUMMARY...
  Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of
  the Ohio Valley and Lower Michigan region. Severe, damaging wind
  gusts are the main threat, although a few tornadoes and some
  hail are also possible.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Guyer.. 06/10/2020

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SPC MD 892

MD 0892 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 273… FOR SOUTHEAST NE…FAR NORTHEAST KS…FAR SOUTHWEST IA…FAR NORTHWEST MO

MD 0892 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2020

Areas affected...Southeast NE...Far Northeast KS...Far Southwest
IA...Far Northwest MO

Concerning...Tornado Watch 273...

Valid 092343Z - 100115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 273 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for tornadoes continues across southeast NE and far
northeast KS. convective trends will be monitored for additional
storm development across far southwest IA and far northwest MO.

DISCUSSION...A complex surface pattern persists across eastern NE
southward into central and eastern KS. Recent surface analysis
places a low about 20 miles west-southwest of CNK, with a dryline
arcing eastward and then southeastward from the low to the central
KS/MO border. Additionally, a cold front extends northeastward from
the low through southeast NE into far western IA. Storms have been
developing along these boundaries, but the quick northeastward
progression of the dryline coupled with eastward movement of the
cold front has led to undercutting and limited residence time in the
warm-sector thus far. Several cells along the dryline have tried to
organize, with several left splits noted, but the slower and
slightly more eastward storm motion that results has been undercut
thus far. Even so, strong vertical shear and robust buoyancy amid
strong forcing for ascent will result in continual severe
thunderstorm development and the potential for a tornado or two.

Farther west, an evolving storm cluster is ongoing across Jefferson
and Saline counties. This cluster has surged eastward with the cold
front and a recent storm merger increased the storm intensity.
Robust surface vorticity is in place near this storm, which likely
contributed to recent tornadogenesis. Complex storm and boundary
interactions are currently ongoing, but the threat for tornado
should continue with this cluster for at least the next half hour or
so. 

The warm sector is expected to become increasingly narrow over time.
However, some low potential for additional storms exists within
areas downstream of the watch (i.e. far northwest MO and far
southwest IA) and convective trends will be monitored.

..Mosier.. 06/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40099758 40739709 41209611 40739426 39169451 39339647
            39619736 40099758 

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SPC MD 889

MD 0889 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KS…SOUTHEAST NE

MD 0889 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0889
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2020

Areas affected...north-central KS...southeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 091903Z - 092030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected around 3pm CDT.  A
couple of supercells with an attendant tornado/hail threat will
likely develop later this afternoon.  A tornado watch will likely be
needed by 230pm CDT.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
field over north-central KS and southern NE as surface temperatures
rise into the mid to upper 80s.  Surface analysis places a boundary
from 20 mi west of RSL to 40 mi northwest of CNK to 40 mi
east-southeast of GRI.  KTWX VAD shows low-level veering flow in the
lowest 1-2 km and RAP forecast soundings show sickle-shaped
hodographs in the lowest 8km but some backing aloft.  Additionally,
the deepening boundary layer evident in the RAP sounding data
suggests CINH will largely erode during the next 1-2 hours.  

Short-term guidance suggests a couple of storms will preferentially
develop near the boundary during the mid-late afternoon with
subsequent development farther southeast over northeast KS/far
southeast NE towards early evening.  The tornado risk will probably
focus in the vicinity of the boundary but on the immediate warm
sector side where large CAPE is co-located with ample surface
vorticity.  Large to very large hail will be possible with the more
dominant/persistent updrafts.

..Smith/Thompson.. 06/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39769836 40789779 40819699 39409662 38909711 39049796
            39199830 39769836 

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SPC MD 885

MD 0885 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272… FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA

MD 0885 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

Areas affected...central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272...

Valid 090016Z - 090115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272
continues.

SUMMARY...A focused corridor for tornado potential has developed in
central Nebraska where supercells have developed. This focused area
runs along and south/east of the surface front where winds have
backed to the southeast.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have developed across central
Nebraska roughly along an axis from just east of North Platte to
east of Ainsworth in the last hour in WW272 along and south/east of
a southwest-northeast oriented surface front. Strong mid-level
rotation and storm top divergence are evident in these storms from
KLNX and low-level rotation appears to be strengthening. Surface
winds have backed slightly to the southeast in this area, and a
corridor has developed where tornado potential has increased. Storm
motions may take the now surface-based storms north of the boundary,
which would diminish the tornado threat. Very large hail and
damaging winds are also likely with these storms.

..Nauslar/Hart.. 06/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40850068 41740057 42030024 42359981 42489945 42459905
            42239894 41909913 40910007 40850068 

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SPC MD 883

MD 0883 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI…NORTHERN ALABAMA…SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE

MD 0883 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0883
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

Areas affected...northern Mississippi...northern Alabama...southwest
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 082228Z - 090030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A recent uptick in convective intensity has been noted by
increased lightning and transient rotation within rain bands over
northern Mississippi/Alabama. A brief, weak tornado and strong winds
gusts are possible with these storms, but given the isolated severe
risk, a watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Convective cells generally moving northward within rain
bands of Tropical Storm Cristobal have exhibited transient rotation
per KGWX/KNQA/KBMX. Additionally, an increase in lightning has been
noted as breaks in cloud cover have helped destabilize and increase
updraft intensity with cooler cloud tops noted. Low-level shear and
observed VROT signatures of 10-20 knots indicate a brief, weak
tornado is possible with these storms. Strong wind gusts are also
possible. The threat will likely remain into the evening, although
it may begin to diminish once daytime heating wanes thus limiting
destabilization.

..Nauslar/Hart.. 06/08/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33588725 34048787 33938855 33608875 33178891 32958944
            33398957 34588985 34949033 35309015 35418972 35238920
            35128889 34978803 34798729 34458695 33938676 33408669
            33178685 33588725 

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SPC MD 836

MD 0836 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST MO

MD 0836 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

Areas affected...portions of central into southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 050831Z - 051000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorms watch will be issued across parts
of southwest into central MO. Locally damaging gusts and hail are
possible.

DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms continues to produce severe
gusts and occasional hail across parts of northwest MO and eastern
KS within WW 255. These storms are moving toward the southeast at
around 35 kt. Most recently, a severe gust to 51 kt was measured at
in Shawnee County, KS and 56 kt measured at St. Joseph, MO. Earlier
signs of outflow surging ahead of the southern portions of the
bowing MCS continue across parts of KS, however, redevelopment and
intensification of additional cells near the outflow has been noted
recently as storms approach the KS/MO state line near Kansas City.
Additionally, cloud tops continue to cool in IR satellite loops,
suggesting the MCS may still undergo additional strengthening.

The downstream environment remains supportive of strong gusts with
MLCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg common. While some inhibition
exists, forecast soundings and 00z RAOB from SGF show favorable
thermodynamic profiles for intense downdrafts. Regional VWP data
also continues to show a rear-inflow jet of 50+ kts associated with
the bowing MCS.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   37019323 36979408 37449476 37949488 38149477 38469417
            38859337 39079272 39139215 38779172 37779179 37619191
            37319217 37019323 

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SPC MD 835

MD 0835 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 255… FOR NORTHEAST KS…NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST IA

MD 0835 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0835
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

Areas affected...northeast KS...northwest MO and southwest IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255...

Valid 050659Z - 050830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe, locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible
over the next couple of hours, especially along the I-70 corridor
from Topeka to Kansas City.

DISCUSSION...Intense convection continues to track southeast across
WW 255 at around 40 kt, with some potential for an increase in
forward speed over the next hour. Backed surface winds from the
east/southeast are sustaining surface dewpoints in the low 70s F
ahead of the line of convection beneath moderately steep midlevel
lapse rates. This is aiding in MLCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg
across the region. Examination of regional VWPs show increasing 1-2
km southwesterly winds at TWX and evidence of a rear-inflow jet from
OAX. The 00z RAOB from TOP further indicates a thermodynamic profile
supportive of strong downdrafts. Furthermore, recent radar data
suggests evidence of possibly descending rear-inflow across
Pottawatomie County KS where lower reflectivity notches are noted
behind the line. Given a favorable environment ahead of this
organized line of storms, expect that severe, locally damaging,
gusts will continue as the storms move east/southeast toward TOP and
MCI in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor. 

Another corridor of strong to severe winds is possible further north
from far northwest MO toward toward CDJ, though this portion of the
line is expected to traverse a somewhat weaker instability gradient.

..Leitman.. 06/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   41159591 41149491 40389337 39109296 38569348 38349448
            38439595 38889696 39499717 40289641 41159591 

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SPC MD 831

MD 0831 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254… FOR CENTRAL PLAINS

MD 0831 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0831
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0936 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

Areas affected...Central Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254...

Valid 050236Z - 050400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts remain
possible.

DISCUSSION...Earlier convection that developed over the central High
Plains has since migrated across central NE with locally severe
winds, but little appreciable organization. Modest LLJ will
gradually veer across eastern NE tonight and this should contribute
to continued east-southeast propagation. Latest CAMs suggest an
upward-evolving complex of storms could evolve within this warm
advection zone, possibly spreading into northwestern MO later
tonight.

..Darrow.. 06/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40009932 44059934 44049671 39999687 40009932 

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SPC MD 808

MD 0808 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 248… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KS AND WEST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWESTERN MO

MD 0808 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0808
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern KS and west-central into
southwestern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248...

Valid 040832Z - 041000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe winds may continue with a line of
storms moving southward early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Outflow from a back-building cluster of storms over
central MO has merged with the southward-moving line over
west-central MO and southeastern KS, where the strongest
reflectivity and velocity signatures are currently noted. Occasional
strong to severe wind gusts producing isolated damage have been
observed with this convection over the past couple of hours across
the Kansas City metro area. The greatest near-term threat for
damaging winds appears to be over far southeastern KS and
southwestern MO, where a relatively unstable airmass still resides
(MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg). Recent radar trends indicate that a
supercell embedded within the line over Bates County MO has recently
strengthened. Isolated large hail may occur if this supercell can
persist. Some potential for a brief/isolated tornado may also exist
along the leading edge of the line in southwestern MO, where around
100-150 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH is present per latest mesoanalysis and
VWP estimates from KSGF.

..Gleason.. 06/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38199590 38179503 38479420 38779364 38049308 37189310
            37099490 37469591 38199590 

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