29MAR2012-3

Current satellite image of storms developing. Notice how the clouds are wrapped around the surface low in North Central Kansas. The movement of this surface low and the connected fronts will drive this weather event.

29MAR2012-1

This system is starting to organize and a couple of mesoscale discussions have been issued. Expect weather watches to be issued shortly. Jefferson County may not be in the initial round of watches, but I would expect us to be included before the nights end.

Below are the two current discussion graphics from the storm prediction center.

29MAR2012 Weather

The weather setup is much like yesterday and I am expecting similar storms to develop to our West around 5pm or so. I am expecting these storms to become more linear as the evening progresses and I am expecting them to move quicker than last nights’ storms. The initial storms will be individual supercells and pose a threat of large hail and a possible tornado. Once they form up squall lines the primary threat will transition to high outflow winds.

Below is the model for 6pm.

Below is the tornadic threat from the Storm Prediction Center.

Below is the large hail threat graphic from the Storm Prediction Center.