SPC MD 57

MD 0057 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…SOUTHERN KANSAS…SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI

MD 0057 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020

Areas affected...Northern Oklahoma...Southern Kansas...Southwestern
Missouri

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 170517Z - 170915Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain will increase across southern Kansas and
southwestern Missouri over the next 2-4 hours. Rates may approach
0.05"/hr.

DISCUSSION...Large canopy of precipitation is gradually expanding
north across the southern/central Plains within a corridor of
isentropic ascent. At the surface, a wedge of sub-freezing
boundary-layer air is gradually shallowing across northern
OK/southern KS as strong low-level warm advection persists ahead of
a short-wave trough. With significant warming expected in the 1-3km
layer, the onset of any mixed precipitation should change to
freezing rain as the morning progresses. Profiles along/north of
I-70 are currently quite dry in the lowest 1km, thus several hours
of moistening will be necessary before heavier, mixed precipitation
develops across this region.

..Darrow.. 01/17/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   38389882 38419546 37889408 37359375 36989403 37209502
            36989690 36349904 37000029 37930006 38389882 

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SPC MD 57

MD 0057 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…SOUTHERN KANSAS…SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI

MD 0057 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020

Areas affected...Northern Oklahoma...Southern Kansas...Southwestern
Missouri

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 170517Z - 170915Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain will increase across southern Kansas and
southwestern Missouri over the next 2-4 hours. Rates may approach
0.05"/hr.

DISCUSSION...Large canopy of precipitation is gradually expanding
north across the southern/central Plains within a corridor of
isentropic ascent. At the surface, a wedge of sub-freezing
boundary-layer air is gradually shallowing across northern
OK/southern KS as strong low-level warm advection persists ahead of
a short-wave trough. With significant warming expected in the 1-3km
layer, the onset of any mixed precipitation should change to
freezing rain as the morning progresses. Profiles along/north of
I-70 are currently quite dry in the lowest 1km, thus several hours
of moistening will be necessary before heavier, mixed precipitation
develops across this region.

..Darrow.. 01/17/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   38389882 38419546 37889408 37359375 36989403 37209502
            36989690 36349904 37000029 37930006 38389882 

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SPC MD 34

MD 0034 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST OK…SOUTHEAST KS

MD 0034 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0034
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

Areas affected...northeast OK...southeast KS

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 111421Z - 111615Z

SUMMARY...A short duration (1-2 hours) of heavy snowfall rates
around 1 inch per hour is expected this morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery during the 7-8am CST period has shown a
blossoming of precipitation across north-central OK into southeast
KS as mid-level ascent becomes maximized over this region.  Cushing,
OK recently reported heavy snow as of 755am CST.  Forecast soundings
in northeast OK show 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 degrees C per
km and weak upright instability (50-100 J/kg MUCAPE).  Therefore,
weak convection resulting in bursts of heavy snow are seemingly
likely during the next 2 hours as the precipitation shield gradually
pivots east across northeast OK and southeast KS.

..Smith.. 01/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   35759642 36629657 37859632 38199573 38099525 37719506
            35809569 35629611 35759642 

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SPC MD 27

MD 0027 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 7… FOR WESTERN TN…FAR EASTERN AR…NORTHWEST MS

MD 0027 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

Areas affected...Western TN...Far Eastern AR...Northwest MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...

Valid 110952Z - 111115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7 continues.

SUMMARY...Conditions remain supportive of organized thunderstorms
capable of strong wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes. A new
watch will likely be needed downstream by 11Z across northern MS and
western TN.

DISCUSSION...Storms within the portion of the convective line
affected far eastern AR, western TN, and northwestern MS appear to
be a bit stronger and better organized. This is evidenced by the
forward surges and higher storm tops recently observed. The already
strong vertical shear over the region has increased over the past 2
hours. Observations from the NQA VAD show 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity increased from around 700 m2/s2 two hours ago to over 950
m2/s2 on the 0924Z observation. Thermodynamic conditions have
remained fairly constant, with temperatures in the upper 60s/low
70s, dewpoints in the mid 60s, and MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg.
These conditions remain supportive of organized thunderstorms
capable of strong wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes.

..Mosier.. 01/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   35449055 36298974 35798840 33488980 33289175 35449055 

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SPC MD 13

MD 0013 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NE…NORTHWESTERN MO…AND SOUTHERN IA

MD 0013 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS into far
southeastern NE...northwestern MO...and southern IA

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 101854Z - 110100Z

SUMMARY...A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will likely occur
through the remainder of this afternoon and into the early evening.
Freezing rain rates in excess of 0.05 inch per three hours should
occur.

DISCUSSION...18Z surface analysis shows a shallow arctic cold front
advancing south-southeastward across the central Plains. A rapid
transition from isolated hail potential to freezing rain concerns
exists in a narrow corridor along and behind the front across parts
of central/eastern KS into southern IA this afternoon. An area of
ongoing precipitation associated with low-level warm advection
occurring above the surface cold front should continue shifting
northeastward over the next several hours. A pronounced warm nose in
roughly the 900-750 mb layer noted on the 12Z sounding from TOP will
be slow to erode, and complete melting aloft of frozen hydrometeors
should occur initially. Refreezing at the surface will occur behind
the cold front as temperatures rapidly fall into the mid to upper
20s. A few surface observations already show this process occurring,
with light to moderate freezing rain noted from central KS into
northeastern KS, far southeastern NE, and southern IA. Potential
exists for freezing rain rates to exceed 0.05 inch per 3 hours in a
narrow southwest to northeast corridor across this region through
the early evening, with some convective enhancement possible. A
gradual transition to sleet and eventually snow appears likely as
the warm nose aloft slowly erodes.

..Gleason.. 01/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37829891 38409851 39879647 40739515 41439369 41749276
            41629213 41349199 40879229 40249328 39509447 38419621
            37889766 37629837 37829891 

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SPC MD 12

MD 0012 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI

MD 0012 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Kansas and southwestern
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 101811Z - 102015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for supercells capable of producing tornadoes,
in addition to severe hail, may increase across southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri through 2-4 PM CST.  Trends are being
monitored for the possibility of a new watch, or extending tornado
watch number 2 northward, within the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Convection with embedded vigorous thunderstorms
continues to develop north-northeastward with supporting forcing for
large-scale ascent, toward the lower Missouri Valley.  Storms may
still be largely rooted above the boundary layer, within broader
lower/mid tropospheric warm advection.  However, weak to modest
boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing, ahead of a weak frontal
wave which is forecast to migrate across the Chanute KS area toward
the Kansas/Missouri state border area (north of Joplin MO) through
20-21Z.  With at least some further increase of surface dew points
into the lower 60s possible, the environment may become increasingly
conducive to supercells accompanied by the risk for tornadoes, in
addition to severe hail.

..Kerr/Hart.. 01/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38019560 38209382 37919300 36959344 36919418 37049595
            38019560 

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the South-Central
States later today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Northeast Texas
  Southwest Arkansas
  Southeast Oklahoma
  Northwest Louisiana

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A few tornadoes
  Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains
  into the lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging winds are the
  greatest severe risk, though tornadoes are possible along with
  very large hail across the southern Plains.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Grams.. 01/10/2020

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Dry/breezy conditions are still expected within portions of the
Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas tomorrow. However, fuel
guidance continues to suggest that fire ignition/spread potential
will remain low.

..Wendt.. 12/28/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2019/

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a strong surface low will be present across the Upper
Midwest. This large system will bring significant precipitation to
much of the eastern CONUS. Some dry conditions will be present
behind the cold front in far southern Texas along the Rio Grande
Sunday afternoon. Winds will be in the 15 to 20 mph range with
relative humidity in the 15 to 25 percent range. Despite somewhat
favorable meteorological conditions for fire spread, fuels across
this area are very moist and the threat for large fires will remain
low.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Deep South today into the evening...

* LOCATIONS...
  Central Mississippi
  Central and northern Louisiana
  Far western Alabama

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a few intense
  Widespread damaging winds
  Isolated large hail

* SUMMARY...
  Numerous to potentially widespread severe thunderstorms are
  anticipated across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and
  Deep South with tornadoes and damaging winds as the primary
  hazards. The peak tornado risk is expected through early
  evening, centered on northern and central Louisiana into central
  Mississippi.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

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