SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT TUE MAY 07 2019

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern High
Plains this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Texas Panhandle
  Western Oklahoma

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a few intense
  Widespread large hail, some baseball size
  Widespread damaging winds

* SUMMARY...
  Numerous severe storms are expected this afternoon into early
  tonight across the Texas Panhandle into extreme western
  Oklahoma. A couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
  damaging winds will all be possible.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Smith.. 05/07/2019

$$

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States
this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Southern and central Mississippi
  Southern and central Alabama
  Southeastern Louisiana
  The Florida Panhandle

* HAZARDS...
  A few intense tornadoes
  Widespread damaging winds

* SUMMARY...
  Several tornadoes (a few significant) and scattered to
  widespread damaging winds are possible through tonight across
  the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast States.

Preparedness actions...

Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they 
are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to
NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and
warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable
for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado
warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety,
ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

&&

..Gleason.. 04/18/2019

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the East Texas to
lower Mississippi Valley region later today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Central and northern Louisiana
  Mississippi
  East Texas
  Southern Arkansas
  Western Alabama

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a few intense
  Widespread damaging winds
  Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Numerous severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes,
  wind damage and large hail, are expected across parts of east
  Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas, Mississippi, western
  Alabama and surrounding areas today and tonight. The greatest
  risk is from east Texas to central Mississippi.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

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SPC Mar 11, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST TX TO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from parts of
central/east Texas to the lower/mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted shortwave trough initially over the southern
High Plains should evolve into a closed upper low over the central
Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. Continued northward low-level
moisture transport will occur across east TX into the lower/mid MS
Valley through the period as a northeastward-moving surface low
occludes in tandem with the upper trough/low.

...East TX into the Lower/Mid MS Valley...
A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period across parts of central/east TX along a cold front extending
southward from the previously mentioned surface low. Even though a
moist low-level airmass should be in place ahead of this convection,
weak low/mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit instability
across most of the warm sector. Still, there appears to be potential
for some restrengthening of the line as it encounters a weakly
unstable airmass across east TX into LA and AR Wednesday afternoon.
Isolated strong to damaging winds will probably be the main threat
given the likely linear nature of the convection. An embedded QLCS
tornado cannot be ruled out either with strong low-level shear
forecast to be present across the warm sector. Due mainly to the
poor thermodynamic environment expected, the potential for a more
concentrated corridor of wind damage currently appears too
conditional/uncertain to include any more than a Marginal risk. The
northern extent of surface-based thunderstorm potential will likely
be constrained by the presence of lower to mid 60s surface dewpoints
across the mid MS Valley. Convection should spread eastward into
parts of MS and western TN Wednesday evening with a continued
marginal wind threat.

..Gleason.. 03/11/2019

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SPC Mar 11, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds,
large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible beginning
mainly late Tuesday afternoon and continuing through the overnight
hours across parts of the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A closed upper low over the lower CO River Valley and adjacent Baja
Peninsula will evolve into a negatively tilted shortwave trough as
it ejects east-northeastward across the Southwest and southern
Plains on Tuesday. Strong ascent preceding this shortwave trough
will encourage surface cyclogenesis across the southern/central High
Plains through the day, with a deep surface low eventually
consolidating over southeastern CO. Low-level mass response will
bring at least partially modified Gulf moisture westward and
northward across the southern Plains.

...Southern Plains...
Isolated to perhaps widely scattered elevated thunderstorms posing a
marginal hail threat may be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of
eastern NM into west TX in a low-level warm air advection regime.
This convection should spread northeastward across the TX/OK
Panhandles and main body of OK through the afternoon. At least some
diurnal heating should occur across the higher terrain of
central/eastern NM into west TX in the wake of this morning
activity. This heating combined with steep mid-level lapse rates
emanating from the higher terrain of northern Mexico and surface
dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s should foster MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg across the southern High Plains through peak diurnal
heating.

Convective initiation appears likely by late Tuesday afternoon as a
strong southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave trough
overspreads eastern NM and west TX. Effective bulk shear exceeding
50 kt will easily support supercells with mainly an isolated large
hail threat. A Pacific cold front will eventually overtake this
convection Tuesday evening, with upscale growth into squall line
likely. Isolated damaging winds should be the primary threat with
this linear convection as it moves quickly eastward across
central/east TX overnight. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out
within the line due to the strong low-level shear that will be
present owing to a 45-60+ kt southerly low-level jet. Eventually
this squall line should weaken some as it encounters a less unstable
airmass across east TX late in the period.

There is still considerable uncertainty whether there will be
sufficient low-level moisture return across western/central OK to
support surface-based thunderstorms. Have therefore refrained from
making any substantial changes to the Marginal and Slight risk
delineations across this area.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:     15%     - Slight

..Gleason.. 03/11/2019

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Parts of the
Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this afternoon and
evening...

* LOCATIONS...
  Northern Mississippi
  Southern parts of western and middle Tennessee
  Northwestern Alabama

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a few intense
  Scattered damaging winds
  Isolated large hail

* SUMMARY...
  A few strong tornadoes, as well as damaging winds and isolated
  large hail, will be possible this afternoon and evening
  primarily across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Thompson.. 02/23/2019

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the ArkLaTex and
vicinity this evening and overnight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Western and central Arkansas
  Southeastern Oklahoma
  Northeastern Texas
  Northwestern Louisiana

* HAZARDS...
  A few intense tornadoes
  Scattered damaging winds
  Scattered large hail

* SUMMARY...
  Severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of the southern
  Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon into
  tonight, with a risk for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large
  hail. Some of the tornadoes may be strong this evening and
  overnight.

Preparedness actions...

Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they 
are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to
NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and
warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable
for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado
warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety,
ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

&&

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CST MON NOV 05 2018

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the ArkLaMiss to the
Tennessee Valley this evening and overnight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Northern Mississippi
  Western and Middle Tennessee
  Northwestern Alabama
  Southeastern Arkansas
  Northeastern Louisiana

* HAZARDS...
  A few intense tornadoes
  Scattered damaging winds

* SUMMARY...
  Severe storms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are likely
  this evening and overnight across the ArkLaMiss region and
  Tennessee Valley. The severe threat is expected to begin near or
  just after sunset near the Mississippi River and continue
  through the overnight hours into the Tennessee Valley.

Preparedness actions...

Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they 
are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to
NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and
warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable
for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado
warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety,
ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

&&

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SPC Nov 5, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two will be possible from a portion of the Southeast
States to the Middle Atlantic region.

...A portion of the Southeast States into Middle Atlantic region...

Surface low will occlude over the Great Lakes Tuesday morning in
association with a northeast-ejecting shortwave trough. Trailing
front will move off the Middle Atlantic seaboard by evening, but
southwest extension of this boundary will stall from southern
portions of the Gulf Coast States into TX. 

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along and just ahead of a
cold front from the OH Valley into a part of the Gulf Coast states
with a modest risk for isolated damaging wind. This activity may
weaken as it crosses the Appalachians due to the very marginal
thermodynamic environment. A strong southerly low-level jet will
transport low-mid 60s F dewpoints into the Middle Atlantic region
contributing to potential for surface-based destabilization with
400-800 J/kg MLCAPE. Redevelopment of low-topped convection with
embedded thunderstorms may occur, especially from central/eastern
Carolinas to VA and eastern PA as the surface layer moistens and
destabilizes during the day. The convection will be embedded within
a strong kinematic environment with wind profiles supportive of
updraft rotation and a few bowing segments. Tendency for the deeper
forcing to shift north, away from the more unstable portion of the
warm sector and the overall weak thermodynamic environment remain
limiting factors, but feel threat is sufficient to maintain the
slight risk for this update.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   5%     - Slight
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Dial.. 11/05/2018

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SPC Nov 4, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms with locally strong wind gusts and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible from a portion of the
Southeast States to the Middle Atlantic region.

...A portion of the Southeast States to Middle Atlantic...

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along and just ahead of a
cold front from the OH Valley into the Gulf Coast states with an
ongoing modest risk for isolated damaging wind. Surface low will
shift from the OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes as the attendant
shortwave trough advances northeast. Some of the thunderstorms may
weaken/dissipate as they cross the Appalachians. Redevelopment may
occur, especially from the central/eastern Carolinas into the
eastern Middle Atlantic during the afternoon where greater
destabilization is possible in association with northward advection
of richer low-level moisture. The kinematic environment will support
organized convection along/ahead of the cold front. However,
widespread clouds and weak instability will probably serve as
overall limiting factors for a more robust severe threat.

..Dial.. 11/04/2018

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