SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2020

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains
this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Eastern Oklahoma
  Northeast Texas
  Far western Arkansas

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A couple of tornadoes
  Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across
  portions of the southern Plains into the Arklatex region.
  Damaging winds, with gusts possibly exceeding 65 mph, and very
  large hail can be expected.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Broyles.. 04/28/2020

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2020

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southeast US
later today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Central and southern Alabama
  Central and southern Georgia
  Northwestern Florida Panhandle
  Central and southern Mississippi
  Central and northern Louisiana
  East Texas

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  Several tornadoes, a few intense
  Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  An outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is expected
  today from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley across much of
  the the Southeast. In addition to tornadoes, many of the storms
  will have very large hail and wind damage. The severe threat
  will be greatest from north-central Louisiana eastward to
  southern and central Mississippi, southern and central Alabama
  into south-central Georgia. Additional severe storms with a
  threat for tornadoes, wind damage and hail will be possible in
  parts of east Texas this morning and in the Carolinas tonight.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southeast US
today through tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Mississippi
  Alabama
  Northern Louisiana
  Southern and eastern Arkansas
  Western Georgia
  Western and middle Tennessee
  East Texas
  The Florida Panhandle
  The Missouri Bootheel
  Western Kentucky

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a few intense
  Widespread damaging winds
  Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely today into
  tonight, with the greatest threat expected from Louisiana
  through much of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. Strong
  tornadoes will be most probable during the day from northeast
  Louisiana across central and northern portions of Mississippi
  and Alabama. Later in the afternoon and evening, another round
  of severe storms with widespread damaging winds, large hail and
  tornadoes is expected across Arkansas into western Tennessee and
  western Kentucky by early tonight. The severe-weather threat
  will persist into tonight and early Monday across Georgia and
  the western Carolinas.

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2020

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid Mississippi
Valley, Northern Illinois this afternoon...

* LOCATIONS...
  Northern Illinois
  Southeastern Iowa

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a few intense
  Scattered large hail, some baseball size
  Isolated damaging winds

* SUMMARY...
  A significant severe-weather outbreak is expected for portions
  of the Midwest this afternoon and evening. Threats include
  strong tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe wind
  gusts.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Edwards.. 03/28/2020

$$

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SPC Mar 9, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2020

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE OZARK PLATEAU VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the Ozark Plateau
vicinity Wednesday, accompanied by at least some risk for severe
weather.

...Synopsis...
The transition to a less progressive regime characterized by
increasing blocking appears likely to continue across the eastern
Pacific.  As this occurs, little, if any, eastward progression of
the mid-level troughing and embedded closed low near and southwest
of the southern California coast is forecast, and the closed low may
actually shift southward some, away from the coast during this
period. 

Broad downstream ridging may generally be maintained across much of
the Gulf coast region.  This may include rising heights across parts
of the Mid South, in the wake of one short wave trough within a much
more progressive branch of westerlies across southern Canada and the
northern tier of the United States.  However, a more vigorous
perturbation is forecast to dig across the central international
border area, and to the east of the northern Rockies, and this could
lead to some suppression of the crest of the southern branch
ridging, across the central Plains by late Wednesday night.  Models
indicate that this impulse will be accompanied by a southeastward
migrating cyclone across the Canadian Prairies, and broad deepening
surface troughing  across the northern Plains/upper Mississippi
Valley, south-southwestward through the south central Plains by 12Z
Thursday.

As all this occurs, instability supportive of areas of widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorm activity will largely be
confined to the southern tier of the United States.  East of the
Rockies, this is expected to generally remain along and south of a
weakening frontal zone, initially extending across the southern Mid
Atlantic coast into the Ozark Plateau and south central Plains. 
With low-level flow above the surface maintaining a substantial
westerly component, little further moisture influx is expected off
the Gulf of Mexico.  But lower to mid 60sF surface dew points inland
may contribute to weak to moderate boundary layer destabilization
across parts of west central and northern Texas into the Ozark
Plateau, and perhaps eastward through northern portions of the
eastern Gulf states.

...Ozark Plateau vicinity...
Models suggest that forcing for ascent near the southern periphery
of the lead northern branch short wave trough may be contributing to
a sustained, evolving cluster of thunderstorms across parts of
northeastern Oklahoma at the outset of the period.  This convection
is expected to be aided by inflow of most unstable CAPE on the order
of 500-1000 J/kg, on the nose of a 30-40 kt 850 jet accompanying a
50+ kt 500 mb speed maximum, contributing to an environment at least
marginally conducive to severe hail and wind.

It appears that this activity could continue east-southeastward
along the frontal zone across the Ozark Plateau into portions of the
Mid South during the day Wednesday.  How long and how far remain
unclear, as aforementioned large-scale pattern developments result
in weakening forcing for this activity at some point.  There are
discrepancies within the various model output concerning this.  The
latest NAM, for example, suggests that a continuation of vigorous
convection east-southeastward across parts of northern/central
Alabama and Georgia might not be out of the question by late
Wednesday evening.  This will need to be monitored for possible
adjustments in later outlooks for this time period.

..Kerr.. 03/09/2020

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SPC Mar 9, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2020

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the south central Plains
into Ozark Plateau Tuesday night, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
Models continue to suggest that mid/upper flow may begin to become
less progressive and characterized by increased blocking across the
eastern Pacific during this period.  As this occurs, a closed
mid-level low, initially over the southern mid-latitude and
subtropical eastern Pacific, will be slow to progress eastward. 
Within larger-scale troughing, it appears that the low may begin to
weaken while elongating northeastward across the central and
southern California coast through the Sierra Nevada and lower
Colorado Valley.  The mid-level cold core may remain offshore
through much of the period.

Downstream of the mid-level low and troughing, mid-level ridging may
be maintained across the southern Rockies and southern Plains. 
However, there may be some suppression of the ridging by late
Tuesday night, mainly north of the Red River.  Models indicate that
this could occur in response to a short wave trough digging across
the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, within a much more
progressive branch of westerlies across the northern mid-latitude
Pacific through southern Canada and the northern tier of the United
States.

In association with a couple of downstream perturbations, a modest
surface low is forecast to migrate from the southwestern
Quebec/Ontario border vicinity into the Canadian Maritimes, with a
trailing cold front advancing southeastward through much of the
Northeast, Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley.  The western flank of the
front is forecast to stall across the south central Plains, and
perhaps return slowly northward, as another weak to modest surface
low migrates southeastward out of Colorado, across the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region by late Tuesday night.

To the south of the surface front, further boundary layer
moistening, coupled with steepening lower/mid tropospheric lapse
rates, may yield weak to moderate boundary-layer CAPE (500-1000
J/kg) across much of central/eastern Texas into parts of the lower
Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday afternoon.  However, this will
largely take place beneath the mid-level ridging, where warm layers
aloft may tend to inhibit deep convective development, and the
potential for thunderstorms is largely conditional on uncertain
forcing for ascent.

...South central Plains into Ozark Plateau...
Potential for thunderstorm initiation near the intersection of the
initially stalled surface front and deepening lee surface troughing
across northwest Texas now appears too conditional to maintain even
low severe probabilities.  However, a strengthening low-level warm
advection regime to the northeast may still provide a focus for
scattered strong thunderstorms, mainly after 11/06Z Tuesday night,
as elevated moisture return above the surface front contributes to
most unstable CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg.  

Model forecast soundings suggest that the environment may become
conducive to storms capable of producing marginally severe hail.  A
developing area of enhanced lift, aided by 850 mb low-level jet
strengthening to 30-40+ kt may support a small upscale growing and
organizing cluster of storms across parts of south central Kansas
into northeastern Oklahoma.  In addition to some hail, this cluster
could also support a few strong surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 03/09/2020

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the South-Central
States later today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Northeast Texas
  Southwest Arkansas
  Southeast Oklahoma
  Northwest Louisiana

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A few tornadoes
  Scattered large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains
  into the lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging winds are the
  greatest severe risk, though tornadoes are possible along with
  very large hail across the southern Plains.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an 
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Grams.. 01/10/2020

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CST MON DEC 16 2019

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Deep South today into the evening...

* LOCATIONS...
  Central Mississippi
  Central and northern Louisiana
  Far western Alabama

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a few intense
  Widespread damaging winds
  Isolated large hail

* SUMMARY...
  Numerous to potentially widespread severe thunderstorms are
  anticipated across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and
  Deep South with tornadoes and damaging winds as the primary
  hazards. The peak tornado risk is expected through early
  evening, centered on northern and central Louisiana into central
  Mississippi.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

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SPC Nov 4, 2019 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2019

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from
Florida to the coastal Carolinas and from parts of the Desert
Southwest to the southern Plains. No severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Tuesday. A surface cold front, located from far
northern Georgia into the coastal Carolinas, will advance southward
during the day. Enough instability should be present for a few
thunderstorms along the front mainly from around midday through the
afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear should be too weak for a
severe threat. Elsewhere, non-severe thunderstorms will also be
possible from parts of the Desert Southwest into the southern
Plains.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Broyles.. 11/04/2019

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SPC Nov 3, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2019

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday across
parts of the Southwest, southern Plains, southern Georgia, and
Florida. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large upper trough encompassing a majority of the CONUS east of
the Rockies should gradually move eastward on Tuesday. Greater
low-level moisture will likely be present across much of FL and
perhaps southern GA to the south of a front. This boundary should
not make much northward progress through the period as surface high
pressure develops eastward from the mid MS Valley to the central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to perhaps scattered
thunderstorms may develop along sea breezes Tuesday afternoon across
FL and southern GA. Mid-level flow should be at least somewhat
enhanced across the FL Panhandle into parts of southern GA. However,
large-scale ascent is forecast to remain very weak as the primary
upper trough shifts northeastward away from this region. Instability
should also remain modest with northward extent, as generally poor
mid-level lapse rates should be present. Stronger surface heating
and greater instability across the central and southern FL Peninsula
will likely be displaced to the south of the stronger mid-level
flow. All these limiting factors suggest that the overall severe
threat Tuesday across FL and vicinity will probably remain low.

Farther west, a closed upper low initially just off the coast of
southern CA and the northern Baja Peninsula is forecast to develop
slowly eastward across the lower CO River Valley and Southwest
through the period. Modest low-level moisture return should continue
across parts of the southern Plains (mainly TX). Isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the open warm sector
Tuesday afternoon. However, a greater chance for convection should
occur across parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains as
the upper low shifts eastward Tuesday evening and overnight. Some
low-level mass response in the form of a modestly strengthening
south-southwesterly low-level jet may also occur late Tuesday across
the southern Plains. Mainly elevated convection may develop in
response over both of these regions. Even though mid-level flow and
related deep-layer shear should gradually strengthen Tuesday night,
instability is forecast to remain generally weak. Some small hail
could occur with the strongest updrafts, but the potential for large
hail appears too limited to include any severe probabilities at this
time.

..Gleason.. 11/03/2019

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