SPC MD 1037

MD 1037 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270… FOR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA

MD 1037 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Areas affected...Northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270...

Valid 110420Z - 110615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind damage threat is likely to continue for few more
hours as a line of storms moves eastward across northern North
Dakota. A new weather watch could be needed as the line approaches
the eastern edge of the WW 270 around 0600Z although the risk should
remain spatially and temporally limited.

DISCUSSION...A well-developed linear MCS is ongoing across northwest
North Dakota, which is located along a gradient of moderate
instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values across northern
North Dakota in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. The line of storms is
being supported by the moderate instability and by large-scale
ascent associated with a shortwave trough moving eastward through
the northern Plains near the top of an upper-level ridge. The
WSR-88D VWP in northern North Dakota shows 0-6 km shear near 40 kt
with backed east-southeasterly surface winds and strongly veering
winds with height in the lowest 2 Km AGL. This wind profile will
support bowing line segments within the MCS over the next few hours.
A forward speed of around 50 kt will make wind damage possible along
the leading edge of the linear MCS.

..Broyles/Grams.. 07/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   49200259 48740291 48240293 47960265 47910199 48119906
            49149914 49330026 49280168 49200259 

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SPC MD 971

MD 0971 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 251… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS

MD 0971 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0971
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central/northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 251...

Valid 010451Z - 010615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 251
continues.

SUMMARY...While there is a residual threat for a few damaging gusts,
storms should weaken over the next few hours, reducing the severe
threat.

DISCUSSION...A small line of strong/severe storms is moving
east/southeast around 40-45 kt this evening. Despite increasing
convective inhibition with eastward extent, strong forced ascent
along the cold pool is sustaining robust convection within the line,
and damaging/severe gusts have occurred intermittently with the
line. Still, stable air with eastward extent, as well as weaker
storm-relative inflow, should lead to a downward intensity trend
over then next several hours. While a localized severe threat may
continue through about 06Z, new watch issuance is not expected.

..Picca.. 07/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   38349973 40149810 40069648 39179632 38479736 38109903
            38349973 

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SPC MD 969

MD 0969 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245…247…250… FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA EASTWARD TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY

MD 0969 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0969
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Parts of central Nebraska eastward to the Missouri
Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...247...250...

Valid 010155Z - 010330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245, 247,
250 continues.

SUMMARY...Some damaging wind potential continues across the region,
but the overall severe threat should further diminish this evening.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of strong to occasionally severe
convection are ongoing across the region. The two most likely areas
of severe/damaging wind potential exist ahead of a narrow, strongly
forced line over central Nebraska and a residual reservoir of
buoyancy between convective clusters over northeast Kansas. Through
the evening, however, further expansion of WAA-aided convection and
mergers of ongoing storms will result in significant overturning.
Combined with nocturnal cooling, the severe threat should wane
further. Of note, Watch 245 will be allowed to expire at 02Z.

..Picca.. 07/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40049839 40719984 41340038 41890047 42069959 41979608
            41619422 41099397 40049431 39139451 38539484 38619606
            39189696 40049839 

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SPC MD 963

MD 0963 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245…247…250… FOR PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA

MD 0963 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...247...250...

Valid 302309Z - 010045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245, 247,
250 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to transition towards
primarily damaging winds across Watch 247, as well as Watches 245
and 250, this evening.

DISCUSSION...Two distinct regimes of severe convection are ongoing
across Watch 247 early this evening -- one with a linear system
departing the Nebraska Panhandle and another with supercell clusters
over southern Nebraska. The linear system is accelerating east into
an area of modest surface-based buoyancy and some inhibition, as
suggested by a 19Z LBF sounding. However, large-scale ascent
associated with a sharp shortwave trough, a building cold pool
behind the line, and favorable storm-relative flow may maintain the
line as it pushes east. This evolution would favor a corridor of
damaging winds over central Nebraska.

Farther east, warm advection focused near the composite
front/outflow is supporting a mixture of supercells and multicells.
Increasing storm coverage and merging cold pools will likely favor
an increasing wind threat here as well, possibly in the form of a
small-scale convective system that accelerates east towards the
Missouri River. Prior to this evolution, some tornado/hail threat
will continue with any discrete cells, given favorable directional
shear.

..Picca.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...BOU...

LAT...LON   42170251 41899933 41349652 41059518 40249442 39839495
            39909683 40149949 41020239 42170251 

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SPC MD 960

MD 0960 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY

MD 0960 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0960
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Missouri Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 302140Z - 302315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Developing storms will pose a risk of damaging winds and
large hail. A watch may be needed if convective trends warrant.

DISCUSSION...A very evident MCV is lifting north/northeast towards
the Kansas/Nebraska border this afternoon. Focused ascent ahead of
and on the eastern flank of this circulation is assisting new
convective development from the MCV to the KC Metro late this
afternoon. Regional VWP data are not sampling much directional
shear, but strong buoyancy combined with enhanced southwesterly flow
aloft (around 35-45 kt at 6 km) will likely support damaging
downburst winds and isolated large hail with cluster/multicellular
modes. Convective coverage/organization may warrant new watch
issuance.

..Picca/Thompson.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   40569551 40969400 40699377 40189380 39159411 38419500
            38129591 38199663 38729702 39639735 40029721 40569551 

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SPC MD 956

MD 0956 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

MD 0956 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0956
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Central and Northern Oklahoma into Southeast
Kansas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 302015Z - 302145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms in southwest Oklahoma are expected to
continue northeast through the afternoon with primarily a damaging
wind threat.

DISCUSSION...The cluster of storms in southwest Oklahoma has a
history of producing 60 to 70 mph winds so far along its path.
Considering the thermodynamic environment ahead of this cluster
(3500+ J/kg MLCAPE) this cluster will likely continue to grow
upscale as it moves northeast. While 0 to 6 shear is relatively weak
(25 knots on the 18Z LMN sounding), it has proven sufficient for
multicell organization of ongoing convection. Given the large
buoyancy, large hail will continue to be a threat, however, damaging
winds will be the primary threat from these storms.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35589903 36249859 37049812 37789755 38249723 38749659
            38859578 38789504 38449475 37809474 37139474 36839516
            35999606 35359683 34479785 34639827 35589903 

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SPC MD 904

MD 0904 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227… FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

MD 0904 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0904
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0418 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Areas affected...central and southeast South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227...

Valid 270918Z - 271045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227
continues.

SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorm cluster is currently moving through
central South Dakota with a history of producing very large hail.
This storm should continue through the early morning and move out of
WW227 later this morning. This will likely require a new watch
across portions of southeast South Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Intense thunderstorm cluster centered over Hughes
County is moving continues to move southeast along the periphery of
the higher instability axis. Although cloud tops appear to have
stopped cooling, MESH imagery suggests the thunderstorm cluster has
been capable of producing hail hail in excess of 2.5" for much of
the last few hours. This radar-derived hail-size estimate was
corroborated by a 2.5" hail report around 730Z. 

The environment ahead of this thunderstorm remains conducive for
thunderstorm maintenance. Deep-layer shear remains at or above 50
knots and most-unstable CAPE along and ahead of the storm is at or
above 2000 J/kg. Given persistent warm-air advection ahead of the
storm, the ongoing organization of the thunderstorm cluster, and a
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, expectation is
that the storm will move out of WW227 in the next 1-2 hours. A new
watch downstream of WW227 appears likely warranted.

..Marsh.. 06/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   44260099 45099977 43779710 43089836 44260099 

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SPC MD 898

MD 0898 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI

MD 0898 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0898
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Areas affected...Central/Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 270030Z - 270230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have formed along an east/west surface boundary
stretching across central/eastern Kansas into western Missouri.
Hail/strong wind gusts are the main threats, but brief tornadoes are
possible.

DISCUSSION...The atmosphere has destabilized across portions of
Kansas/Missouri during the last few hours in the wake of a MCS.
Moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg) and shear
(effective bulk shear of 35-55 knots) indicate a conducive
environment for strong/severe storm development. Farther to the
west, the storms are most likely surface-based and interacting with
a remnant outflow boundary, which is where brief tornadoes are
possible across Butler/Elk/Greenwood counties. Severe hail/wind are
also possible with these storms as they slowly build/track to the
south/southeast. Storms should diminish after sunset. However, there
is a possibility of upscale organization that would let storms
continue through the evening. If this occurs, a watch may be needed.

..Nauslar/Cook/Edwards.. 06/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   38539758 38619584 38559386 37449384 36819381 36829587
            36919729 37109768 38179768 38539758 

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SPC MD 887

MD 0887 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN KS…WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MO

MD 0887 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0887
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Areas affected...far eastern KS...west-central and southwestern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 261716Z - 261815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely continue to develop and
intensify.  The risk for severe gusts/hail is increasing.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows thunderstorms developing near the
I-70 corridor in eastern KS.  If these storms are slightly elevated
in character, it is anticipated a transition to surface based will
ensue in the near term as these storms and other storms east of
Wichita continue to develop east into eastern KS.  Visible satellite
imagery shows a bubbling cumulus field over eastern and southeastern
KS into west-central and southwestern MO to the south of a cold
front and to the west of rain-cooled outflow over central MO. 
Surface temperatures have warmed to near 90 degrees in southeast KS
and into the lower 80s in the greater Kansas City metro.  A very
moisture rich airmass characterized by middle 70s dewpoints over
eastern KS is contributing to extreme buoyancy and around 5500 J/kg
SBCAPE per modified RAP soundings over southeast KS.  KTWX and KEAX
VAD data indicate 30-45 kt 2-6 km flow over the northern half of the
discussion area and this would potentially support severe multicells
and supercells given the extreme buoyancy in place.  Large to very
large hail and severe gusts (50-60 kt) are possible with the
stronger storms this afternoon.

..Smith/Thompson.. 06/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39019516 38989363 38619325 37749295 36929349 37049460
            37209580 39019516 

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SPC MD 885

MD 0885 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS

MD 0885 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Areas affected...central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 261301Z - 261500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolate late hail threat may transition to an isolated
wind threat later this morning. The area will be monitored for a
potential watch.

DISCUSSION...This morning's 12Z DDC sounding shows mid-level lapse
rate on the order of 7.5 C/km, with the maximum 2-6 km lapse rate on
the nearing 9 C/km. This, coupled with warm-air advection in the
850-700 millibar layer has contributed to elevated thunderstorms
across western portions of central Kansas. The environment these
thunderstorms are developing in has most-unstable CAPE values
between 1000-2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 30-40
knots. As such, these thunderstorms should be capable of posing a
hail threat in the near-term.

Later this morning, as insolation mixes out the nocturnal boundary
layer, steepening low-level lapse rates should increase the
potential for strong thunderstorm outflow. A watch may become
necessary later this morning.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37820011 38960024 39219936 38959678 37919633 37349719
            37820011 

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