SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION. ...HIGH PLAINS... WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY1 PERIOD ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE STRONG FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT...BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...MUCH OF IT SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. ONE REGION WHERE STORMS MAY CONGREGATE SOMEWHAT IS ACROSS ERN CO INTO NWRN KS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY ROTATE NEWD WITHIN MOIST PLUME ACROSS NM INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD TRACK NEWD ALONG WEAK SW-NE ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL REMAIN DRAPED FROM SERN CO INTO NWRN KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM WITHIN MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS MAY BE NOTED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...SHEAR/INSTABILITY DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS FOR HAIL/WIND. INCREASING LLJ OVER SWRN KS AFTER DARK MAY SUPPORT CLUSTERING AND PERHAPS A SMALL MCS. FARTHER NORTH...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY ALONG LEE TROUGH EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA INTO WRN ND. GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE AND NOT PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED. ...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY... LONG-LIVED MCS IS PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS SERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA AT ROUGHLY 30KT. REMNANTS OF THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND PERHAPS MOVE INTO NRN MO BY DAYBREAK. LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTED BY A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT...COULD REGENERATE OVER MO/IL BY MID DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND CINH WEAKENS. GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS THAT EVOLVE ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..DARROW/DEAN.. 07/26/2015
from SPC Convective Outlooks http://1.usa.gov/1JGwBhV
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