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SPC Jul 26, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TUESDAY EVENING.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY MORNING AIDED BY A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION. DESPITE EARLY CLOUD COVER...THE PRESENCE OF A
RESIDUAL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND DIURNAL HEATING OF A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS /LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ SHOULD RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
DESTABILIZATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE COLD FRONT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...WHEN HEIGHT
FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. 
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT...AND POSSIBLY
REINTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS...DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL POSE A RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED AS THE
EFFECTS OF EARLY DAY STORMS/MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

..BUNTING.. 07/26/2015

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from SPC Convective Outlooks http://1.usa.gov/1CYpnJx

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