SPC Mar 11, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z


Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from parts of
central/east Texas to the lower/mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

A negatively tilted shortwave trough initially over the southern
High Plains should evolve into a closed upper low over the central
Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. Continued northward low-level
moisture transport will occur across east TX into the lower/mid MS
Valley through the period as a northeastward-moving surface low
occludes in tandem with the upper trough/low.

...East TX into the Lower/Mid MS Valley...
A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period across parts of central/east TX along a cold front extending
southward from the previously mentioned surface low. Even though a
moist low-level airmass should be in place ahead of this convection,
weak low/mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit instability
across most of the warm sector. Still, there appears to be potential
for some restrengthening of the line as it encounters a weakly
unstable airmass across east TX into LA and AR Wednesday afternoon.
Isolated strong to damaging winds will probably be the main threat
given the likely linear nature of the convection. An embedded QLCS
tornado cannot be ruled out either with strong low-level shear
forecast to be present across the warm sector. Due mainly to the
poor thermodynamic environment expected, the potential for a more
concentrated corridor of wind damage currently appears too
conditional/uncertain to include any more than a Marginal risk. The
northern extent of surface-based thunderstorm potential will likely
be constrained by the presence of lower to mid 60s surface dewpoints
across the mid MS Valley. Convection should spread eastward into
parts of MS and western TN Wednesday evening with a continued
marginal wind threat.

..Gleason.. 03/11/2019

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from SPC Convective Outlooks http://bit.ly/1CYpnJx

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