Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TX TO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from parts of central/east Texas to the lower/mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough initially over the southern High Plains should evolve into a closed upper low over the central Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. Continued northward low-level moisture transport will occur across east TX into the lower/mid MS Valley through the period as a northeastward-moving surface low occludes in tandem with the upper trough/low. ...East TX into the Lower/Mid MS Valley... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of central/east TX along a cold front extending southward from the previously mentioned surface low. Even though a moist low-level airmass should be in place ahead of this convection, weak low/mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit instability across most of the warm sector. Still, there appears to be potential for some restrengthening of the line as it encounters a weakly unstable airmass across east TX into LA and AR Wednesday afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds will probably be the main threat given the likely linear nature of the convection. An embedded QLCS tornado cannot be ruled out either with strong low-level shear forecast to be present across the warm sector. Due mainly to the poor thermodynamic environment expected, the potential for a more concentrated corridor of wind damage currently appears too conditional/uncertain to include any more than a Marginal risk. The northern extent of surface-based thunderstorm potential will likely be constrained by the presence of lower to mid 60s surface dewpoints across the mid MS Valley. Convection should spread eastward into parts of MS and western TN Wednesday evening with a continued marginal wind threat. ..Gleason.. 03/11/2019
from SPC Convective Outlooks http://bit.ly/1CYpnJx
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