SPC Mar 12, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday across portions of the
Great Basin into the central Rockies.

...Great Basin/Central Rockies...

Strong short-wave trough will translate into NV by 18z Wednesday
before ejecting into ID/WY by 15/06z. Large-scale forcing for ascent
should aid mid-level moistening as lapse rates steepen in advance of
this feature. Additionally, modest boundary-layer heating is
expected to contribute to destabilization and forecast soundings
favor at least some potential for deep convection ahead of the short
wave. While PW values will remain seasonally low across this region,
cold mid-level temperatures should enhance lightning production. For
these reasons have introduced 10% thunder probabilities to account
for convective potential primarily between 14/18z-15/02z.

..Darrow.. 03/12/2018

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