SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ...SYNOPSIS... FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MODEST CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE MIDWEST BY EARLY WED. A SHARP COLD FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE E THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND SE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUE NIGHT. ...MIDWEST... WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODEST WITH PREVAILING WLYS AT 850 MB IN PRECEDING DAYS ACROSS THE NRN GULF...A PLUME OF 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS ROBUST MID-LEVEL DCVA APPROACHES THE IL PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR...ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD TUE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES. DESPITE THE OFFSET TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT A SMALL PROGRESSIVE MCS CAPABLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND RISK TUE NIGHT. ...TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS... LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DECREASE WITH SRN EXTENT. SUSTAINED THUNDER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE TIED TO THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT ON TUE NIGHT. WITHIN A PLUME OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...1000-2500 J/KG MUCAPE SHOULD BE PREVALENT ALONG THE FRONT. CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ISOLATED AT MOST AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE FRONT...BUT STRENGTHENING EFFECTIVE SHEAR MIGHT SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK. ..GRAMS.. 03/13/2016
from SPC Convective Outlooks http://1.usa.gov/1CYpnJx
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