SPC MD 1019


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Mesoscale Discussion 1019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Areas affected...Portions of KS...southern NE...extreme southwestern
IA...and northern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308...

Valid 270628Z - 270830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308

SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms will continue to pose both a
large hail and severe wind threat for at least the next couple of

DISCUSSION...An eastward-moving line of storms across western KS
continues to produce strong to severe wind gusts early this morning.
A measured gust to 58 kt (67 mph) recently occurred in Garden City
KS with outflow that has surged well ahead of this ongoing
convection. A separate cluster with embedded supercells on its
northern flank is occurring across north-central KS and far
south-central NE. Isolated large hail will be possible with any
storm that can remain semi-discrete given the steep mid-level lapse
rates that are present over the central Plains (reference 00Z DDC
and OAX soundings).

Current expectations are for both clusters in KS to eventually merge
and develop south-southeastward into central/eastern KS over the
next couple of hours. This region still has the strongest
instability present (MUCAPE 2000-3000+ J/kg) per recent
mesoanalysis, and a 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet over
the southern/central Plains will likely support continued storm
intensity and organization early this morning. Strong to severe wind
gusts should become the main threat with time as storm mode becomes
increasingly linear.

Additional, more widely spaced, clusters in far southeastern NE and
northwestern/north-central MO should also pose an isolated large
hail and wind threat in the short term. These areas are displaced
slightly to the east of the low-level jet axis, which may impact
their intensity/longevity to some degree. Still, one of these
clusters may approach the Kansas City metro in the next 1-2 hours,
where a favorable thermodynamic environment is present to support
severe/damaging winds.

As convection gradually approaches the southern bounds of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 308 in the next couple of hours, local extensions
in area or a new watch may need to be considered into parts of
southern KS and perhaps west-central MO.

..Gleason.. 06/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37880145 39010050 40199993 40509895 40829627 40799570
            40269495 40609249 39329239 38409626 37849851 37730064

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