SPC MD 1032

MD 1032 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311… FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN NE

MD 1032 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Areas affected...Portions of northern KS and southern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311...

Valid 280552Z - 280715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and strong to severe wind threat
continues across north-central Kansas and southern Nebraska. The
need for a downstream watch into northeastern Kansas and
southeastern Nebraska remains unclear.

DISCUSSION...A small bowing line segment across north-central KS and
south-central NE has generally produced 50-55 mph measured wind
gusts over the past hour. Additional, somewhat more discrete storms
have formed in a low-level warm advection wing farther east across
southern NE. The line of storms moving eastward will continue to
pose mainly an isolated strong to severe wind gust threat for the
next couple of hours across northern KS, as instability remains
fairly large downstream of this activity. The semi-discrete storms
across southern NE should primarily have an isolated large hail
threat initially given steep mid-level lapse rates supporting a
large reservoir of MUCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. But,
clustering may eventually reduce this hail threat to some extent.
Regardless, a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet feeding
into both storm regimes may support continued storm intensity for at
least the next few hours. The need for a new watch downstream of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311 remains unclear, but convective trends
will continue to be closely monitored.

..Gleason/Grams.. 06/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39089942 39149946 39719922 40229936 40449992 40759990
            41019802 40969615 40159582 39489580 39059712 39089942 

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