SPC MD 1037


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Mesoscale Discussion 1037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Areas affected...Northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270...

Valid 110420Z - 110615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270

SUMMARY...A wind damage threat is likely to continue for few more
hours as a line of storms moves eastward across northern North
Dakota. A new weather watch could be needed as the line approaches
the eastern edge of the WW 270 around 0600Z although the risk should
remain spatially and temporally limited.

DISCUSSION...A well-developed linear MCS is ongoing across northwest
North Dakota, which is located along a gradient of moderate
instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values across northern
North Dakota in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. The line of storms is
being supported by the moderate instability and by large-scale
ascent associated with a shortwave trough moving eastward through
the northern Plains near the top of an upper-level ridge. The
WSR-88D VWP in northern North Dakota shows 0-6 km shear near 40 kt
with backed east-southeasterly surface winds and strongly veering
winds with height in the lowest 2 Km AGL. This wind profile will
support bowing line segments within the MCS over the next few hours.
A forward speed of around 50 kt will make wind damage possible along
the leading edge of the linear MCS.

..Broyles/Grams.. 07/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   49200259 48740291 48240293 47960265 47910199 48119906
            49149914 49330026 49280168 49200259 

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