MD 1080 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST NE…FAR NORTHEAST KS…FAR SOUTHWEST IA…FAR NORTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1080 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 Areas affected...East/Southeast NE...Far Northeast KS...Far Southwest IA...Far Northwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 190547Z - 190745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts and hail are expected to remain a threat during the next several hours as the cluster of storms continues southeastward. WW likely. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery continues to show a small but well-defined convective system moving southeastward across eastern NE at about 35 to 40 kt. Nocturnal stabilization has made the downstream airmass less favorable for surface-based convection (i.e. SBCIN is less than -50 J/kg based on recent mesoanalysis). Even so, the very moist nature of the airmass, evidenced by dewpoints in the mid 70s and 100mb mean mixing ratios around 16 g per kg, and at least moderately steep mid-level lapse rates result in enough instability to maintain elevated convection. Moisture gradient between the drier conditions of the middle MS Valley and more moist conditions across the central Plains will provide a favored track for the system. As such, the general expectation is for the system to continue southeastward for the next several hours, eventually reaching far northeast KS and far northwest MO. Strong to severe wind gusts and isolated hail appear probable as this system continues southeastward and a watch will be needed to cover this persisting threat. ..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/19/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40039804 41069843 41729809 42099709 41289555 40019502 39489671 40039804
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2sLJHgL
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