MD 1089 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1089 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0915 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020 Areas affected...Central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 030215Z - 030315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...An MCS propagating into central KS should continue to support severe wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours. A watch will be issued soon to address this threat. DISCUSSION...An MCS moving across northern KS continues to produce severe winds gusts, including along its southern flank with 60-70 mph winds recently reported. These wind reports support recent radar trends which show the southern portion of the line beginning to accelerate to the east/southeast. New convection developing ahead of this southeastward surge suggests that conditions remain favorable for continued propagation. This is supported by recent RAP mesoanalysis which shows Low-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE in this region, suggesting that the severe wind threat should continue for the next one to two hours. As such, a watch is likely to cover this wind threat. ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/03/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39409991 39639912 39479752 38959706 38349688 38069759 38029820 38389937 38709979 39409991
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2WMPLVX
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