SPC MD 1110

MD 1110 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI…AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

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Mesoscale Discussion 1110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Areas affected...Southern Kansas into far northeast Oklahoma...far
southwest Missouri...and far northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 210226Z - 210400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Several strong to severe storms are possible early
tonight. Large hail will be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...The last hour of GOES-16 10.35u satellite imagery shows
expanding mid-level clouds across much of southern Kansas in an area
of moist isentropic ascent. Expect several elevated storms to form
in this area over the next hour or two. With MUCAPE of 3000 to 4000
J/kg and 50 to 60 knots of effective shear per DDC 00Z sounding and
latest RAP mesoanalysis, expect these storms to be supercellular.
Very steep mid-level lapse rates (8.5 C/km per 00Z DDC sounding)
will support a primary threat of large hail. Any storms which form
in this area will likely only last for a few hours as 700mb flow
veers and isentropic lift weakens. The duration of these storms may
limit the need for a watch, but if enough storms form, a watch may
be necessary.

..Bentley/Goss.. 07/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38070094 38150024 38229894 38189796 38119652 38029547
            37839491 37269397 36859386 36239374 36099402 36109452
            36709541 37069678 37089775 37099870 37129961 37340042
            37770098 38070094 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2LeoXbp

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