MD 1110 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI…AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0926 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018 Areas affected...Southern Kansas into far northeast Oklahoma...far southwest Missouri...and far northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 210226Z - 210400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Several strong to severe storms are possible early tonight. Large hail will be the primary threat. DISCUSSION...The last hour of GOES-16 10.35u satellite imagery shows expanding mid-level clouds across much of southern Kansas in an area of moist isentropic ascent. Expect several elevated storms to form in this area over the next hour or two. With MUCAPE of 3000 to 4000 J/kg and 50 to 60 knots of effective shear per DDC 00Z sounding and latest RAP mesoanalysis, expect these storms to be supercellular. Very steep mid-level lapse rates (8.5 C/km per 00Z DDC sounding) will support a primary threat of large hail. Any storms which form in this area will likely only last for a few hours as 700mb flow veers and isentropic lift weakens. The duration of these storms may limit the need for a watch, but if enough storms form, a watch may be necessary. ..Bentley/Goss.. 07/21/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 38070094 38150024 38229894 38189796 38119652 38029547 37839491 37269397 36859386 36239374 36099402 36109452 36709541 37069678 37089775 37099870 37129961 37340042 37770098 38070094
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2LeoXbp
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