MD 0115 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX…FAR SOUTHWEST AR…FAR NORTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0115
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018
Areas affected...Northeast TX...Far Southwest AR...Far Northwest LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 110408Z - 110615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some isolated hail is possible tonight across portions of
northeast TX, far southwest AR, and far northwest AR.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over central TX
with a warm front arcing east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex.
Cooling cloud tops have been noted within the IR imagery across
northeast TX region during the past two hours and recent regional
radar imagery has shown quick development over the area. 00Z FWD and
SHV soundings sampled a steep lapse rate environment (i.e. around
7.0 degree C per km) and MUCAPE over 1800 J/kg. Current mesoanalysis
suggests this environment still exists over the region and that
continued warm-air advection into the frontal zone is expected to
result in increased thunderstorm coverage. Strong vertical shear was
also sampled by the 00Z soundings (i.e. effective shear over 50 kt).
There is some uncertainty regarding short-term storm coverage, given
that the region is on the far southwest edge of the shortwave trough
progressing through the Ozark Plateau and forcing for ascent is
currently modest. However, storms should increase along the front
tonight and given the favorable kinematic and thermodynamic
environment, the potential for severe hail exists and trends will be
monitored for potential watch issuance. Low confidence in the
overall scenario currently precludes higher watch probabilities.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/11/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 33429610 33629513 33279335 32639303 32269385 32719621
33429610
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2Ho9MWZ
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