MD 0115 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX…FAR SOUTHWEST AR…FAR NORTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 Areas affected...Northeast TX...Far Southwest AR...Far Northwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 110408Z - 110615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some isolated hail is possible tonight across portions of northeast TX, far southwest AR, and far northwest AR. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over central TX with a warm front arcing east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. Cooling cloud tops have been noted within the IR imagery across northeast TX region during the past two hours and recent regional radar imagery has shown quick development over the area. 00Z FWD and SHV soundings sampled a steep lapse rate environment (i.e. around 7.0 degree C per km) and MUCAPE over 1800 J/kg. Current mesoanalysis suggests this environment still exists over the region and that continued warm-air advection into the frontal zone is expected to result in increased thunderstorm coverage. Strong vertical shear was also sampled by the 00Z soundings (i.e. effective shear over 50 kt). There is some uncertainty regarding short-term storm coverage, given that the region is on the far southwest edge of the shortwave trough progressing through the Ozark Plateau and forcing for ascent is currently modest. However, storms should increase along the front tonight and given the favorable kinematic and thermodynamic environment, the potential for severe hail exists and trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance. Low confidence in the overall scenario currently precludes higher watch probabilities. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/11/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 33429610 33629513 33279335 32639303 32269385 32719621 33429610
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2Ho9MWZ
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