MD 1182 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KS/EXTREME NORTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020
Areas affected...Southeast KS/extreme northeast OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 111238Z - 111415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated elevated storms are forming across southeast
Kansas and could spread into extreme northeast Oklahoma before
weakening by late morning. Isolated large hail and damaging gusts
will be possible, but a watch does not appear necessary at this
time.
DISCUSSION...Weak low-level warm advection on the east edge of the
richest low-level moisture, where convective inhibition is weak, has
supported thunderstorm development this morning across southeast KS.
Steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg, along with
effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt, will favor some organized
storm structures, including the potential for splitting supercells.
The background environment and semi-discrete storm mode could favor
isolated large hail, and strong downdrafts could reach the surface
even though the updrafts are likely rooted near or above the 850 mb
level. There is a small chance the ongoing storms could produce
enough of a cold pool to persist a little longer into the day,
though storm coverage may diminish by late morning as the warm
advection weakens. Given this uncertainty, a severe thunderstorm
watch does not appear necessary, though this area will be monitored
through the morning.
..Thompson.. 07/11/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37569587 36929574 36649605 36729651 37169696 37949721
38329727 38529691 38549650 37989595 37569587
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