MD 1190 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS…NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
Mesoscale Discussion 1190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020
Areas affected...Southern Kansas...Northern Oklahoma...northern
Texas Panhandle.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 112100Z - 112330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected this evening across southern
Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northern Texas Panhandle. A
severe thunderstorm watch is likely.
DISCUSSION...Severe storms are expected to evolve from multiple
regimes across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma late this
afternoon/evening. Visible satellite has shown cumulus to be mostly
flat across western and central Kansas thus far as heights have
risen across the area. The exception is across east central Kansas
on the western edge of ongoing convection and in northern portions
of a stationary front extending from near Emporia, KS to Amarillo,
TX. SPC mesoanalysis shows CINH has eroded across this area. While
upper forcing remains limited, an outflow boundary from earlier
convection may be the focus for additional initiation in the next
few hours.
In addition, very hot conditions and deep mixing in the Texas
Panhandle have led to high based cu along the stationary front. One
or more storms will likely develop in this region this afternoon and
gradually become more severe as they move east into a more favorable
environment.
Finally, storms will likely form later this evening along the front
in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, likely aided by a
strengthening low-level jet and increasing upper forcing through the
evening.
Once storms form, they will likely be severe given 3500 to 5000 J/kg
MLCAPE and 8 C/km lapse rates across the region and effective shear
ranging from 40 to 55 kts per SPC mesoanalysis and confirmed by 18Z
LMN RAOB. Therefore, a watch is likely late this afternoon/evening,
but there is still uncertainty about timing.
The primary hazards will be large hail (some 2+" possible), and
severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph possible). The large hail will be
most likely early in the storms life cycle with severe wind becoming
the dominant threat as storms grow upscale.
..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/11/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36319732 35849908 35930018 36360110 36870089 37600007
38379882 39109792 39179702 38599611 37759593 36899594
36319732
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2tqt5eS
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