MD 0012 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Kansas and southwestern
Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 101811Z - 102015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for supercells capable of producing tornadoes,
in addition to severe hail, may increase across southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri through 2-4 PM CST. Trends are being
monitored for the possibility of a new watch, or extending tornado
watch number 2 northward, within the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...Convection with embedded vigorous thunderstorms
continues to develop north-northeastward with supporting forcing for
large-scale ascent, toward the lower Missouri Valley. Storms may
still be largely rooted above the boundary layer, within broader
lower/mid tropospheric warm advection. However, weak to modest
boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing, ahead of a weak frontal
wave which is forecast to migrate across the Chanute KS area toward
the Kansas/Missouri state border area (north of Joplin MO) through
20-21Z. With at least some further increase of surface dew points
into the lower 60s possible, the environment may become increasingly
conducive to supercells accompanied by the risk for tornadoes, in
addition to severe hail.
..Kerr/Hart.. 01/10/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38019560 38209382 37919300 36959344 36919418 37049595
38019560
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2t5dgvS
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