MD 1205 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AR.
Mesoscale Discussion 1205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0950 AM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018 Areas affected...portions of southern AR. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301450Z - 301645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...The remains of an overnight convective complex, having entered southwestern AR, may produce strong/isolated severe gusts through the remaining forenoon hours. The severe threat presently appears too marginal in magnitude and limited in coverage for a watch, but will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Some re-intensification trend has been noted with the convective complex over the past 30-60 minutes -- both in IR cloud-top cooling and radar-composite imagery. Surface mesoanalysis shows a weak, quasistationary frontal zone in preconvective environment over southern AR, representing the trailing extension of a cold front extending southwestward from a frontal-wave low over western KY. A corridor of relatively maximized convergence, in otherwise weak boundary-layer flow, may help to focus convective coverage/strength over the next few hours as the residual cold pool of the MCS continues forward-propagating along and behind its outflow boundary. The favorably moist air mass over southern AR should continue to destabilize somewhat before thicker anvil cloud cover moves overhead, offsetting modest midlevel lapse rates enough to boost MLCAPE to near 1500 J/kg, based on modifications to both model soundings and an interpolation of 12Z SHV/LZK RAOBs. Low-level and deep shear each will remain weak. The bulk of reflectivity may remain several miles behind the outflow boundary, except for a warm-advection wing not directly related to the cold pool and posing minimal severe threat on its own. As such, organized severe potential appears limited, but isolated damaging gusts still are possible. ..Edwards/Grams.. 07/30/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33199388 33589405 34319395 34439290 34329196 33259192 33129286 33199388
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2LONzXC
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