MD 1269 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1269 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0949 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Areas affected...North Central/Northeast Kansas and South Central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190249Z - 190415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Cluster of storms may continue tracking into northeast Kansas over the next few hours, with a continued risk for damaging wind gusts. Watch issuance remains unlikely. DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a cluster of storms has formed, with the strongest cells located in north-central Kansas and a trailing line of convection into southwest Kansas that has recently expanded in coverage. The strongest storms have produced measured wind gusts of 60-70 mph. This line of storms is moving into an instability axis that increases with eastward extent, ranging from 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE, as well as increasing CINH. Shear remains rather weak over the region, with perhaps a subtle improvement with time as the upper-level trough located over the northern Plains continues to progress southward. There is considerable uncertainty in the short term evolution of these storms, given poor analysis/representation in the latest convection-allowing guidance. Given the expansive coverage of convection, it seems plausible for these storms to continue until at least 06z-07z and track along/near the northern tier of counties in Kansas, following the axis of instability within generally westerly flow aloft. Should this occur, these storms will continue to pose a risk for a few damaging wind gusts over the next few hours. However, increasing convective inhibition and outflow that is now surging ahead of the convection (per KUEX trends) may limit the overall severe threat. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, however, watch issuance remains unlikely. ..Karstens/Bunting.. 07/19/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38360009 38940011 39489947 40019942 40329866 39999623 39209600 38519695 38360009
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1t3B7nW
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