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SPC MD 1269

MD 1269 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

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Mesoscale Discussion 1269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2020

Areas affected...North Central/Northeast Kansas and South Central
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 190249Z - 190415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Cluster of storms may continue tracking into northeast
Kansas over the next few hours, with a continued risk for damaging
wind gusts. Watch issuance remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a cluster of storms has formed,
with the strongest cells located in north-central Kansas and a
trailing line of convection into southwest Kansas that has recently
expanded in coverage. The strongest storms have produced measured
wind gusts of 60-70 mph. This line of storms is moving into an
instability axis that increases with eastward extent, ranging from
3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE, as well as increasing CINH. Shear remains
rather weak over the region, with perhaps a subtle improvement with
time as the upper-level trough located over the northern Plains
continues to progress southward.

There is considerable uncertainty in the short term evolution of
these storms, given poor analysis/representation in the latest
convection-allowing guidance. Given the expansive coverage of
convection, it seems plausible for these storms to continue until at
least 06z-07z and track along/near the northern tier of counties in
Kansas, following the axis of instability within generally westerly
flow aloft. Should this occur, these storms will continue to pose a
risk for a few damaging wind gusts over the next few hours. However,
increasing convective inhibition and outflow that is now surging
ahead of the convection (per KUEX trends) may limit the overall
severe threat. Convective trends will continue to be monitored,
however, watch issuance remains unlikely.

..Karstens/Bunting.. 07/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38360009 38940011 39489947 40019942 40329866 39999623
            39209600 38519695 38360009 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1t3B7nW

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