MD 1273 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 1273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Areas affected...Portions of the Southern Plains and Mid Missouri/Mississippi Valleys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102156Z - 110030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to develop along/near a surface boundary and an upper-level trough axis. Strong wind gusts are possible. DISCUSSION...Scattered pulse thunderstorms continue to develop across this region in the vicinity of a surface boundary and upper-level trough axis. Storms are forming in a moderately buoyant environment (1500-2500 J/kg), but without strong shear and flow aloft, a pulse storm mode should continue as outflow from dissipating storms will help generate new storms. Strong daytime heating has destabilized lower-levels and DCAPE of 1000+ J/kg indicate the potential for strong wind gusts. Some severe wind reports have already occurred in Oklahoma and the wind threat should continue until around sunset when activity is likely to decrease. The convection should remain unorganized and the overall severe wind threat is limited/isolated, therefore, a watch is unlikely. ..Nauslar/Grams.. 08/10/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36450011 35540060 34960030 34479958 34569880 34909741 34949541 35459465 35989411 36589312 36989247 37299193 37699116 38199035 38669002 39039027 39159154 38859334 37989600 37369830 37279852 36999968 36450011
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2Ov7dpB
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