MD 1287 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NE…NORTHERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020
Areas affected...Central/southern NE...Northern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 200714Z - 200915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms are expected overnight. Localized
severe wind/hail is possible, though the threat appears relatively
limited. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...At 07Z, convection is increasing in coverage across
central NE into northern KS, in advance of a convectively enhanced
shortwave trough moving eastward out of the central High Plains.
While deep-layer shear is generally weak across the region (in the
20-30 kt range), convection is expected to continue increasing in
coverage within a warm-advection regime attendant to the shortwave.
Moderate MUCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) will support a localized hail risk
with the strongest newer updrafts, while continued consolidation of
convection may result in at least temporary bowing structures
capable of locally damaging wind.
The greatest relative risk will likely be over northern KS and far
southern NE, in closer proximity the primary surface boundary and
somewhat greater elevated buoyancy. The overall threat is expected
to remain too limited for watch issuance.
..Dean/Edwards.. 07/20/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 39169930 39279988 39400031 39520044 40440012 40730002
41079990 41369978 41489957 41699920 41829886 41829824
41709746 41279695 40839669 40549653 39809618 39519604
39229643 39149732 39139790 39149881 39169930
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/30r7H7H
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