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SPC MD 1297

MD 1297 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389…390… FOR WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS

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Mesoscale Discussion 1297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2020

Areas affected...Western/southern Nebraska and western Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389...390...

Valid 210429Z - 210600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389, 390
continues.

SUMMARY...Overall severe-weather potential continues to diminish
in/near Severe Thunderstorm Watches 389/390, with a lingering risk
mainly across northwest Kansas. Watch 389 will likely expire by/at
05Z.

DISCUSSION...A linearly organized band of storms continues to settle
south-southeastward across northwest Kansas, with the stronger
updrafts embedded within the westernmost portion of the line just
south of I-70 and Goodland/Colby areas as of 1015 pm MDT. Cloud tops
have tended to gradually warm and the advancing cluster should
continue to encounter increasing boundary layer inhibition and
lesser buoyancy with southward extent. Thus, the severe-weather
potential should continue to trend increasingly marginal over the
next 1-2 hours, and an additional Watch issuance or extension is not
expected.

Farther north, additional upscale quasi-linear growth could occur
with multiple clusters ongoing across south-central Nebraska. While
a localized severe thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out,
increasingly stable nocturnally/convectively influenced inflow
should keep the severe potential limited.

..Guyer.. 07/21/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39300187 39610062 40559964 41359958 41989990 41459820
            40519885 39239926 38720144 39300187 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/TOmc0M

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