MD 1301 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA…SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1301 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Areas affected...Central/eastern Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161918Z - 162145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the mid-late afternoon hours. Large hail and damaging gusty winds are the primary threats. Convective trends are being monitored for the potential issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCV, currently centered over northwest Oklahoma, is propagating eastward, with scattered thunderstorms ongoing across Alfalfa to Kingfisher Counties. Additional cells are initiating along a surface boundary, where a pooling of higher dewpoints (mid 70s F) were observed, roughly located from north of END to GCM. The MCV is progressing eastward into an increasingly unstable airmass, characterized by 1500-2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, mainly driven by deep low-level moisture (72-75 F dewpoints) and noticeably steep low and mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 C/km. Effective bulk shear values are stronger in the northern regions of the discussion area (i.e 30 knots), with weaker values (20 knots) farther south. Current thinking is that the greatest concentration of storms will occur ahead of the MCV, along the aforementioned surface boundary, where congealment into a multicellular complex is likely. Damaging wind gusts associated with downbursts from water-loaded downdrafts are more likely with the most intense storms. In addition, the relatively steep 700-500 mb level lapse rates (evident via the 18Z TOP special sounding) may also promote the generation of severe hail, especially with some of storms associated with the stronger deep-layer shear to the north. Confidence regarding the coverage of severe wind and hail are a bit uncertain at this time, and convective trends are being monitored for the potential issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch as details of severe coverage become more clear. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/16/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 35959797 36219805 36529807 37239787 38749752 38979662 38609548 38109518 37429508 36849481 36389475 35759482 35659592 35669672 35729736 35779788 35959797
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