MD 1345 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN KANSAS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1345
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020
Areas affected...Northern kansas southeast Nebraska and southwest
Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 261906Z - 262100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of strong/severe storms with damaging winds and
isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening. A
weather watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Afternoon surface analysis showed a slow moving cold
front across much of the central Plains into the Midwest. This front
was associated with a high-latitude shortwave trough ejecting
eastward over the Dakotas. Lift from the shortwave trough is
forecast to glance the frontal zone later this afternoon and
evening. Strong heating along the frontal zone is contributing
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE given dewpoints in the lower 70s F.
Inhibition is beginning to weaken, and recent cumulus development
suggests the atmosphere is continuing to destabilize. Stronger shear
is forecast to remain displaced on the northern side of the
boundary. This should serve to limit the overall organization of
convective elements. However, a couple of severe storms may develop
with a threat for damaging winds and isolated large hail.
Considerable uncertainty exists in the coverage of severe storms. As
a result, a weather watch appears unlikely at this time.
..Lyons/Hart.. 07/26/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38780107 39600096 40479939 40959825 41399709 41629631
41649540 41189454 40389426 39689493 39219659 38669936
38559990 38510035 38780107
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1zwQ1nv
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