MD 0139 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK…NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0139
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast
OK...North-Central/Northeast TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 190608Z - 190815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail is possible with the rapidly developing storms
across south-central/southeast OK and north-central/northeast TX.
Limited temporal duration and areal extent of the threat is expected
to preclude the need for a watch.
DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery has shown increased
reflectivity across south-central OK and adjacent far north-central
TX over the past half hour. Cooling cloud-tops have also been noted
within GOES-16 IR imagery. This development appears to be on the
leading edge of a low-amplitude, fast-moving shortwave trough
rotating around the parent upper system over the TX Panhandle.
Adding to the forcing for ascent is the approaching Pacific cold
front (analyzed from west of OKC southward to about 50 mi
east-southeast of SPS to southwestward through the TX Hill Country)
and subtle pre-frontal troughing.
Given the elevated instability (sampled well by the 00Z FWD
sounding) and strong vertical shear, these storms are expected to
rapidly strengthen and pose a hail risk for portions of
south-central/southeast OK and north-central/northeast TX. The
anticipated short duration (i.e. about 3 hours) and limited areal
extent is expected to preclude the need for a watch.
..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/19/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34619700 35059674 35229612 35099541 34679515 33879529
33239560 32889662 33299738 34619700
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2DE86pI
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