MD 1393 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS…ADJACENT WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Thu Aug 30 2018
Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...adjacent western Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 300844Z - 301045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms is possible
through daybreak, with a mostly marginal severe hail risk possibly
transitioning to at least some potential for a few strong surface
gusts. The need for a watch is not currently anticipated, but
trends will continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...An ongoing increase in thunderstorm development,
generally near/north of Wichita, appears largely in response to
forcing associated with low-level warm advection. This is on the
nose of one branch of a modest 850 mb jet (around 30 kt), which
output from the Rapid Refresh suggests may develop northeastward
near/just west of the I-35 corridor through daybreak, before
weakening.
In the presence of sizable CAPE (2000-3000+ J/kg) for moist parcels
based above a relatively stable near surface layer, but rather
modest to weak shear, convection appears likely to increase in
coverage. This probably will remain focused to the east of the
warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air (reflected
by the thermal gradient at 700 mb across central/eastern Kansas).
The evolution of an upscale growing cluster of storms is possible.
As this occurs, a mostly isolated/marginal severe hail threat
probably will diminish, but there could still become a period with
some increase in potential for strong wind gusts associated with a
developing eastward advancing (in the presence of 20 kt westerly
deep layer mean flow) cold pool, before activity weakens.
..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/30/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39459566 39229476 37999406 37399489 37289639 37849792
38599761 39459566
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2C1rAJw
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