MD 1396 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NE…NORTHEAST KS…NORTHWEST MO…WESTERN/CENTRAL IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018
Areas affected...Southeast NE...Northeast KS...Northwest
MO...Western/Central IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 310610Z - 310845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail is possible with elevated convection
overnight.
DISCUSSION...ACCAS field over southeast NE/northeast KS has recently
blossomed into deep convection. Steep midlevel lapse rates noted on
area 00Z soundings are supporting moderate elevated instability
across the region, with MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg noted per recent
mesoanalyses. Most CAM guidance suggests elevated convection will
increase in coverage across western/central IA later tonight (around
08-09Z). While the timing is somewhat uncertain, an increase in
convection with time appears plausible as a relatively strong
low-level jet remains focused into the area and the plume of steep
midlevel lapse rates is maintained from the west.
Midlevel flow is sufficient for effective shear of 30-40 kt for
convection rooted around 800 mb, which will support at least
transient updraft organization with a potential for severe hail.
Most CAM guidance suggests a dominant cluster mode, which would be
somewhat unfavorable for a more organized hail threat, and watch
issuance is currently considered unlikely. However, if a trend
toward more long-lived discrete modes is observed overnight, then
the watch potential will be reconsidered.
..Dean/Edwards.. 08/31/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39299587 40219646 42129597 43469502 43419401 43099341
42379306 41409315 40489358 39589416 39139478 39079532
39299587
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2aeETHM
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