MD 1399 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1399 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018 Areas affected...southeast Nebraska into central Iowa and northern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 010147Z - 010345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of large hail are expected to develop this evening. DISCUSSION...An very unstable air mass currently resides along and west of a warm front roughly along the MO River. The 00Z OAX and TOP soundings both show MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, with MUCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg. In addition, low level shear near the warm front is strong, owing to large looping hodographs in a warm advection regime. Although the air mass is largely capped, a southwesterly low-level jet increasing to around 50 kt will maintain lift, while the presence of steep lapse rates aloft support strong updrafts capable of hail. Overall, convection may remain disorganized, but the amount of available instability will likely support large to damaging hail in some of the cells. Therefore, a watch cannot be ruled out this evening if storm trends suggest more than an isolated severe threat. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 09/01/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 39649467 40019525 40159633 40419735 40859759 41389725 41969637 42229572 42229461 41999385 41589315 40959266 40359249 39849267 39589301 39479367 39649467
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