MD 1438 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1438 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0534 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Areas affected...Southeastern Kansas into southern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092234Z - 100030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple severe hailstones may accompany the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not expected given the isolated, brief nature of the threat. DISCUSSION...A southward surging outflow boundary, originating from an earlier MCS/associated cold pool, has recently resulted in the initiation of isolated, mainly multicellular convection across portions of southeast KS into southern MO. Temperatures in the 90s, with low to mid 70s dewpoints, characterize the airmass ahead of the outflow boundary, resulting in 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Weak deep-layer flow and resultant vertical shear suggest that even the more intense storms will struggle to organize and sustain themselves in the ambient environment. However, latest mesoanalysis depicts locally stronger low-level shear in close proximity to the boundary, which may encourage brief instances of updraft rotation. As such, brief periods of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple severe hail stones may exist. Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain isolated and short-lived overall, with the latest HRRR runs not depicting much in the way of further convective development. As such, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Dial.. 08/09/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38469692 38159571 37759340 37719171 38039048 37789034 37639030 37379031 37019045 36699068 36399103 36159193 36199260 36629367 37019511 37559645 38469692
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