MD 0144 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA…SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA…WESTERN MARYLAND…AND SOUTHEASTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2020 Areas affected...much of West Virginia...southwestern Pennsylvania...western Maryland...and southeastern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031822Z - 032015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Low-topped convection may produce isolated damaging wind gusts over the course of the afternoon. A WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity. DISCUSSION...Relatively low-topped convection has increased in coverage over the past half hour or so, with lightning flashes observed near stronger cores. Thermodynamic profiles are only marginally unstable across the discussion area, although western portions of the discussion area are beginning to be influenced by substantial cooling aloft associated with an approaching shortwave. The cooling/destabilization has resulted in about 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE which is supporting the ongoing convection, and the combination of this cooling and surface heating will result in just enough destabilization for convection to traverse the discussion area over the next two to three hours or so. Fast flow aloft (50-70 kt near the top of updrafts) and downward momentum processes may result in isolated damaging wind gusts through the afternoon especially as convection continues to deepen and/or organize into linear segments. The overall severe threat appears to be too low to necessitate a WW issuance at this time, however. ..Cook/Hart.. 03/03/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 40697953 40298090 39338222 38808256 38168198 38447992 38977834 39677813 40117808 40557853 40697953
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2PKgZqP
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