MD 1457 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF MISSOURI…FAR EASTERN KANSAS…AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Areas affected...Much of Missouri...far Eastern Kansas...and Southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101938Z - 102145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A few multi-cell clusters should develop this afternoon, with damaging winds/hail possible. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance across parts of the region. DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar trends show a variety of convective development processes occurring across the region. 1) An early morning band of severe convection continues to move northeastward into northeast Missouri, where outflow from the ongoing MCS has largely stabilized the atmosphere. These storms may end up merging with the MCS across this area into central Illinois, where MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg resides. 2) A persistent band of elevated convection from northwest Missouri into southeast Kansas is beginning to show signs of rooting into the boundary layer. This uptick in intensity is also evident in visible satellite. This trend appears to pose the greatest short-term threat. 3) Boundary layer cumulus is developing across south-central Missouri amid strong diabatic heating (temperatures in the low 90s F) and rich low-level moisture (dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s F). This process has yielded MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg. Given the widespread destabilization that has occurred, and the convective trends noted, convection should become more widespread throughout the afternoon. Despite ample instability, winds aloft are generally weak, with only about 20 kt of effective bulk shear present, with perhaps some enhancement near the MCS in central Illinois. Thus storms should form into a few mutli-cell clusters, posing a threat damaging winds and large hail. Convective trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance this afternoon. ..Karstens/Grams.. 08/10/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 36799475 37959571 40179296 40118766 36938868 36609234 36799475
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3afJaqs
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