MD 1474 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL…SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1474 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018 Areas affected...South-central...southeast and east-central SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 180748Z - 181015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An ongoing cluster of elevated storms moving to the east across south-central South Dakota is expected to have a greater potential to produce a periodic threat for large hail, as it tracks into southeast and east-central South Dakota during the next few hours. If these storms are able to maintain their intensity, then portions of far southwest Minnesota and adjacent northwest Iowa could be affected, as well, toward 7 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...IR imagery indicated cooling cloud tops again with the ongoing eastward-moving SD cluster of storms, located in the south-central part of this state at 0736Z. A progressive midlevel impulse shifting east from western SD/NE combined with warm advection at the apex of the western branch of the central Plains southerly low-level jet has been supporting this somewhat disorganized cluster, as it moved through weaker instability. Although weak forcing aloft will be maintained as the impulse moves east early this morning, this cluster will be advancing into the eastern branch of the Great Plains low-level jet as it veers to westerly by 12Z. This latter evolution in the low-level wind field will eventually limit convergence into this cluster of storms, suggesting a diminishing trend in coverage of stronger storms and potential decrease in activity. Until this trend occurs, this cluster of storms will begin to encounter stronger elevated instability that is present across southeast SD into southwest MN and northwest IA that should promote stronger updrafts in the short term and larger hail at times. ..Peters/Edwards.. 09/18/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 43209889 43279946 43779986 44109981 44599938 44719857 44829745 44749614 44319569 43399571 43139599 42989676 43109825 43209889
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2OAoH4c
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