MD 1495 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440… FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0901 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Areas affected...Central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440... Valid 150201Z - 150300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440 continues. SUMMARY...A large hail and damaging wind threat will persist across central Kansas for a few more hours. DISCUSSION...The current cluster of supercells in north central Kansas has shown no sign of weakening to this point and has produced 2.5 inch hail as recently as 120Z. Temperatures remain in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s ahead of this activity. SPC mesoanalysis shows these storms moving into a reservoir of 4500 J/kg MLCAPE with no inhibition suggesting these storms may persist for a few more hours as they move south. Additional evidence for this is the new storm which has formed in southern Osborne county (ahead of the cold front) in the last 45 minutes showing that surface based buoyancy is still present. Averaging the 00Z RAOB from DDC and TOP suggests effective shear around 30 to 35 kts and mid-level lapse rates of 8.8 C/km. This will continue to support a threat for large hail and perhaps some damaging winds. Without any upper-level support and no low-level jet, expect these storms to weaken slowly as the boundary layer cools over the next several hours. A small severe thunderstorm watch was issued downstream of this activity given the expectation for it to persist for a few more hours. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 08/15/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39369891 39569847 39689805 39629750 39099710 38389732 38159797 38129873 38499892 39369891
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2Y3Gmb9
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