MD 1520 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 PM CDT Wed Oct 03 2018 Areas affected...much of central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032312Z - 040145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop this evening, and a few may become marginally severe with a hail or wind threat. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows TCU developing near a surface trough from southwest KS into northwest MO, ahead of the primary cold front which is rapidly approaching from the north. MLCAPE of up to 2000 J/kg has developed from south central KS into IA, and winds veer with height and may support a few cells capable of hail or locally damaging wind gusts. Storms are first expected to form within the pre-frontal trough where temperatures are hot, and then may increase in coverage further as the cold front interacts with the unstable air mass, especially from northeast KS into northern MO. Any severe threat will be maximized during the first few hours after development, with decreasing intensity during the late evening. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/03/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 37139942 37050142 37140180 37380176 37610149 38000034 38099994 38269941 38449872 38799818 39239775 39629645 40349437 40389392 40219380 39739382 39359424 37969683 37599774 37289880 37139942
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1InhsFO
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