MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS…SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…NORTHERN MISSOURI…AND SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Fri Oct 05 2018 Areas affected...northeast Kansas...southeast Nebraska...northern Missouri...and southern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051939Z - 052215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will increase gradually through the afternoon and evening. The primary threat will be hail, but gusty winds cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...A surface warm front across central/northern Kansas and central Missouri will continue to lift northward through the afternoon before stalling and returning southward as a cold front overnight. Although the airmass should remain capped to the south of the front, continued isentropic ascent to the north of the front will allow for a gradual increase in favorable conditions for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Presently, thunderstorms are ongoing across northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and southern Iowa. These thunderstorms appear to be rooted somewhere between 850-700 millibars, along or just north of the frontal surface. Continued south-southwesterly flow through this layer will continue to tap into a CAPE reservoir across southern Kansas, that is being sustained by unseasonably warm surface temperatures (in the upper-80s) and lower-tropospheric moisture (dewpoints in the upper-60s to low-70s). Through this afternoon, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is a little bit uncertain given the continued weakening/veering low-level jet. However, belief is that enough isentropic ascent will occur to result in at least isolated convection, which would be capable of hail. Later this evening, with the diurnally augmented increase in the low-level jet, and increasing deep-layer ascent stemming from the western United States trough, confidence is higher in the coverage of thunderstorms -- some possibly severe. The primary threat this evening should still be hail, but given the increase in the low-level jet and a surface front in the vicinity, a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 10/05/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 39029813 40469703 41609601 42189467 42249261 41669107 40399122 39319369 38219573 38219808 39029813
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2IHOW6u
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