SPC MD 1529


MD 1529 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 05 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southwest/central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 060044Z - 060215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will continue to pose a primary
threat of large hail this evening, although strong gusty winds will
be possible too. Still, the severe threat is not expected to be
organized enough to necessitate a watch.

DISCUSSION...Aided by enhanced convergence/isentropic ascent along a
composite cold front/outflow boundary, a cluster of strong to severe
storms has expanded across central Kansas this evening. As the
low-level jet further intensifies this evening, a few more cells may
develop to the southwest, generally in the direction of Dodge City. 

The 00Z DDC sounding sampled around 50 kt of west/southwest 500mb
flow, which is supporting some initial supercellular evolution.
Combined with MLCAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg, instances of large hail
appear possible. However, south/southeastward advance of the front,
combined with some dry air and nocturnal inhibition slowing parcel
ascent slightly, should lead to cells becoming progressively
elevated atop the frontal surface. Therefore, the overall severe
threat should be limited enough to preclude watch issuance.

..Picca/Thompson.. 10/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37839907 37729982 37740033 37880034 38050014 38319984
            38789927 39499852 39709812 39739783 39719731 39529701
            39189688 38269760 37839907 

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