SPC MD 1537

MD 1537 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451… FOR CNTRL/ERN KS…W-CNTRL MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...W-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451...

VALID 252346Z - 260115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 451...WITH THE
GREATEST NEAR-TERM THREAT ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER STORMS THAT PRODUCED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
ACROSS NERN KS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY DISORGANIZED
ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING AS OF 2330Z ACROSS NRN KS.
HOWEVER...STRONG STORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN PART OF WW
451...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING FOCUSED ALONG A ZONE OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A WEAK
SFC TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MOVING INTO CNTRL KS OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
ANY CELL THAT FAVORABLY INTERACTS WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 

FURTHER EAST...THE NEAR-TERM SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS ERN
KS INTO WRN MO. ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN ERN KS/WRN MO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NEXT 1-2
HRS...BUT CURRENT RADAR/VIS IMAGERY TRENDS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS SCENARIO. THE SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA MAY INCREASE AGAIN
THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NRN KS AND/OR THE CURRENT CLUSTER ACROSS
W-CNTRL KS.

..DEAN.. 07/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37729837 37729901 37729923 37729933 37729937 37729955
            37839956 38709959 38979958 39069958 39139958 39659793
            39659790 39659737 39659523 39659520 39659512 39659512
            39459420 39139409 38569405 38479406 38459406 38049508
            37749769 37729770 37729777 37729787 37729826 37729837
            37729837 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1OtdITh