MD 1541 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1541 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 Areas affected...Parts of south central through northeast Kansas and adjacent southeast Nebraska/northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081849Z - 082045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue developing across the region through 4-5 PM CDT, perhaps accompanied by some risk for a tornado or two, or localized damaging wind gusts. This threat currently appears low enough that a watch probably is not necessary, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...The bulk of the ongoing convective development appears largely supported by forcing for ascent due to low/mid-level warm advection, to the cool side of a convectively generated pre-frontal surface boundary. This boundary generally extends along or just south of the Interstate 35 corridor of eastern Kansas, southwestward into northwestern Oklahoma. However, along and ahead of the leading edge of the more widespread rain, insolation appears to be contributing to a corridor of boundary layer destabilization (CAPE increasing up to 1000 J/kg. This may support increasing/intensifying thunderstorm activity during the next few hours, as far north as a weak low on the front, now northwest of Fort Riley. Through 21-22Z, models suggest that this low/frontal wave may slowly migrate northeastward into southeastern Nebraska. Near and in close proximity to the southeast of this feature, beneath 30-40 kt south/southwesterly 850 mb flow, southeasterly near surface winds likely will maintain sizable low-level hodographs. With further boundary layer warming and moistening, it appears possible that the environment may become marginally conducive to the development of occasional low-level mesocyclones, accompanied by at least some risk for a relatively short-lived tornado or two, in additional to localized straight-line wind gusts. ..Kerr/Grams.. 10/08/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38959683 39659670 40109623 40519499 39799451 38839523 37869646 37999693 38959683
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1myCPFF
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