SPC MD 1545

MD 1545 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KS…I-70 CORRIDOR OF MO

Mesoscale Discussion 1545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Areas affected...Northeast KS...I-70 Corridor of MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 212041Z - 212215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging wind and
isolated instances of hail are possible for the next few hours.
Watch issuance is considered unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm cluster has recently intensified near
Kansas City, to the north of an old outflow boundary that is
advancing slowly northward as an effective warm front across
northeast KS and central MO. While midlevel lapse rates are
relatively weak across the region, rich low-level moisture is
supporting MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg north of the warm front. Veering
wind profiles noted in the EAX and TOP VWPs support some storm
organization. The potential exists for one or more upscale-growing
clusters to track eastward just north of the warm front this
afternoon. Some locally damaging wind risk will develop with any
clusters that can acquire a sufficiently strong cold pool. Buoyancy
may be sufficient for at least small hail, though the severe hail
risk should be limited by poor lapse rates and warm temperatures
aloft. 

With a nose of dry midlevel air moving into central MO, it is
unclear whether any long-lived cluster will be sustained north of
the warm front, but a marginal severe risk will continue across at
least northwest MO in the short term. Some backbuilding is possible
further west into northeast KS with time, as low-amplitude midlevel
features continue to track northeastward out of the southern High
Plains.

..Dean/Grams.. 08/21/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39599601 39649420 39659307 39419148 38589156 38519243
            38529321 38609419 38759596 39169602 39599601 

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