MD 1549 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 402… FOR EASTERN KANSAS…WESTERN MISSOURI…NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1549 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...western Missouri...northeast Oklahoma and adjacent northwest Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 402... Valid 091631Z - 091800Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 402 continues. SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development expected through 2-4 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for tornadoes and localized damaging wind gusts. A new watch may become necessary within the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...A narrow line of convection with embedded thunderstorms, within the warm sector of the developing surface low, continues to advance northeastward around 30-35 kt. Activity will spread northeast of the watch within the next hour or two. The surface low, currently near the Kansas/Oklahoma border to the south of Wichita, continues to slowly deepen, and is forecast to migrate north/northeastward toward the Salina KS vicinity through 19-21Z. As it does, strongest southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of 40 kt) appears likely to develop northward across much of eastern Kansas and adjacent western Missouri. This will be accompanied by enlargement of low-level hodographs, particularly along a remnant convectively generated boundary that appears roughly aligned with the Interstate 35 corridor. Although cloud cover and rain is slowing destabilization along this corridor, breaks in overcast coupled with further gradual boundary layer moistening should allow for increasing boundary layer instability through mid to late afternoon. As it does, the environment may become increasingly conducive to the development of low-level mesocyclones within strengthening convection, accompanied by a risk for tornadoes and localized damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 10/09/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38059651 39229565 40399395 38819342 37569306 35559390 35169520 36379581 37419638 38059651
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