MD 1566 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459… FOR NERN KS THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB…SRN IA…NRN MO AND EXTREME WCNTRL IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO
AND EXTREME WCNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...
VALID 290104Z - 290300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 459 WITH GREATEST
THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER SRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL IA
SWWD TO NERN KS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IA
EXTENDING INTO SWRN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
COLD FRONT. STORMS ARE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG IA PORTION OF THE FRONT
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH AN
AXIS OF 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER SRN IA AND NRN MO. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO EXTREME NRN MO AND WCNTRL IL. DES MOINES VWP INDICATE SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILES WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR JUST NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. TENDENCY WILL REMAIN FOR MOST STORMS TO BE
UNDERCUT BY THIS SWD ADVANCING BOUNDARY WHICH ALONG WITH ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT GIVEN ITS STABLE
CHARACTERISTICS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL.
TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SWRN EXTENT INTO NERN
KS WHERE THE 00Z RAOB FROM TOPEKA INDICATES AN INVERSION NEAR 850
MB...AND SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL UNDERGO A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS POTENTIALLY HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTED LIMITED INCREASE IN THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.
..DIAL.. 07/29/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39349709 40769573 41839439 42039299 41639131 40849109
40319278 39589468 38919686 39349709
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1gkHOxY
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